DOW 15k here we come

[moneymaker]

You heard it: DOW 15k

Market had a nice bounce the past two weeks and it could bounce up another 5-8%.

However, we are in for a nice downward trend over the next 12-18 months.

Earnings and current affects on social norms hasn’t taken effect yet and it’s looking rough the longer our economic engine is essentially shut down.

I do believe this will create amazing buying opportunities for those that are patient.

 

[Aerides]

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/stocks-are-going-higher-102118.html

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Can't have it both ways.

 

[moneymaker]

Gotta go with what’s current. I’m still super bullish and I believe once this works itself through, the economy will be booming.

But this has had major effects on our economic system.

Looking to generate an educated discussion.

 

[6miths]

. Looking to generate an educated discussion.

I suspect that anyone who is truly 'educated' in these matters would not partake of said discussion.

 

[Dawg52]

Let me see which way the wind is blowing over the next few days and I will get back to you.

 

[USGrant1962]

We already have a "was Dow 18K the bottom" thread - why another?

 

[RobbieB]

I feel a lot of pent up demand just waiting to explode.

 

[Ready]

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/stocks-are-going-higher-102118.html

I don’t get it. In the above thread OP told us the market was going higher for the next several years in spite of coronavirus. Now the market is going to 15K? At what point will your realize how silly these conversations are.

 

[mystang52]

I'm 100% sure the market will go up more, or down, or hang around its current levels.

 

[Gumby]

It will fluctuate. -- J.P. Morgan

 

[dixonge]

I feel a lot of pent up demand just waiting to explode.

Maybe that's just your blood pressure?

 

[jollystomper]

I feel like bacon.

 

[sheldon cornped]

Didn't research your previous post(s), but I do believe we will retest the lows. I am not a doom and gloomer, but how can anyone see beyond the pain that has been inflicted, is being inflicted and has yet to be inflicted. For the record, as of today, I am only -5% off the all time high across my portfolio, so, happy about that. Just take into account however......horrible earnings almost across the board coming, record unemployment that will stress most states, mortgage deferments, defaults, home sales-car sales suffering and I could go on. Most analysts expect something of a u shaped recovery. Some highly respected medical experts expect a resurgence of the virus by December. Yes, we will probably be better prepared by then, maybe even have a vaccine....or not. Bottom line- it is far too early to celebrate this "relief" rally. That said, even though I have 27% cash position I plan to stay put until we plow further through this huge mess. Good luck to all.....

 

[target2019]

I think today is like some yesterday. Yeah, that's it.

 

[DrRoy]

The market tends to predict or price in economic events roughly 6 months out. In that time frame we should have bottomed out and be in a slow recovery. A vaccine would be available soon after that. We will only test the lows if there is a new revelation that throws this off track.

 

[Dtail]

I feel like bacon.

Not like Kevin I hope - he already lost a lot of money before this year.

 

[Time2]

It seems to me we are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel on the Corona 19 front. People are aware we will have an economic recovery when this subsides and will have a fear of missing out on the gains.

I believe the health professionals will get a better handle on treatment, the death rate will drop to be closer to the normal flu. Some areas with low Corona 19 cases will be released to start work again and the economy will start churning again.
I also think we will continue to have smaller spikes in cases as we do go back to work, but, there is suffering from a crashing economy just as in the the deaths reported. We do need to get workers working.

That makes me think I'd rather be in than out of the market.

 

[Freedom56]

The market is trying to adjust to 2021 and beyond earnings. The near term bad news has been priced in. The recent counter-trend rally was initiated by short sellers covering and blended funds re-balancing. We are about to wipe out the last 20 years of job growth (if we haven't already) and given that it will take more time to re-start the economy, many of those jobs will be gone for good. It's not clear what an economy will look like after it re-opens without a viable treatment or vaccine. I can't see people crowding into concerts and movie theaters or taking cruises in the near term. Professional sports will be pretty bizarre with near empty stadiums. You can only look beyond that for so long.

 

[VanWinkle]

I feel a lot of pent up demand just waiting to explode.

+1

 

[OldShooter]

Stocks are going higher. ... like 1998-2000 again ...

You heard it: DOW 15k ...

Quite funny, actually, beginning with the "@moneymaker" screen name.

From repeated experiments, psychologists tell us that the less a person knows about a subject, the more self-confident he is in his knowledge.

There are only two kinds of investors: Ones who know that they don't know the future and ones who don't know that they don't know.

 

[tdv2]

Quite funny, actually, beginning with the "@moneymaker" screen name.

From repeated experiments, psychologists tell us that the less a person knows about a subject, the more self-confident he is in his knowledge.

There are only two kinds of investors: Ones who know that they don't know the future and ones who don't know that they don't know.

There is a third type....Those who know they don't know but make a living giving the impression they know where the market is headed.

 

[MichaelB]

Can't have it both ways.

On the interwebs you have have it all the ways you want and also as often.

I feel a lot of pent up demand just waiting to explode.

Certainly lots of pent up demand for explanations and predictions. Dunning-Kruger must be proud, JKG smiling in his grave.

 

[OldShooter]

There is a third type....Those who know they don't know but make a living giving the impression they know where the market is headed.

Yes, of course. Thank you. The DOL says that about 950K people work in the investment business. Certainly the majority of them fall into this category.

DW and I are involved with the investment committee of a nonprofit whose FA uses LPL as their custodian. LPL has recently been publishing a weekly letter for customers. Here is a hilarious excerpt: "Gaining a sense for the timing of a [virus] peak is one of the remaining pieces of our Road to Recovery Playbook that may signal a durable market bottom can be established"

"Road to Recovery Playbook!??!!" Ack. At least, CYA, they include the word "may."

 

[tdv2]

Yes, of course. Thank you. The DOL says that about 950K people work in the investment business. Certainly the majority of them fall into this category.

DW and I are involved with the investment committee of a nonprofit whose FA uses LPL as their custodian. LPL has recently been publishing a weekly letter for customers. Here is a hilarious excerpt: "Gaining a sense for the timing of a [virus] peak is one of the remaining pieces of our Road to Recovery Playbook that may signal a durable market bottom can be established"

"Road to Recovery Playbook!??!!" Ack. At least, CYA, they include the word "may."

Ahhh...a Playbook! They do have a way of making things sound convincing. Those of us who know better aren't fooled....we just chuckle.