This is wishful thinking. 2/3 of severe COVID-19 cases in a retrospective study had no comorbidities. Yes, you have a much higher risk if you have a preexisting condition and it helps to be fit but it's not a silver bullet. https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/early/2020/03/17/13993003.00547-2020
Who’s Really At Risk of Dying From Covid-19
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This is wishful thinking. 2/3 of severe COVID-19 cases in a retrospective study had no comorbidities. Yes, you have a much higher risk if you have a preexisting condition and it helps to be fit but it's not a silver bullet. https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/early/2020/03/17/13993003.00547-2020
copyright1997reloaded
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The New York State tracking data (w/close to 10K deaths) shows that THE number one co-morbidity BY FAR is .... Hypertension.
Source: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n
As of 4/12/20 w/9385 deaths, 8257 (88%) had a co-morbidity, and of those 5266 (56% of deaths, 64% of those dying w/co-morbidity) had Hypertension.
This post brought to you by a New York State resident with....Hypertension.
Source: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n
As of 4/12/20 w/9385 deaths, 8257 (88%) had a co-morbidity, and of those 5266 (56% of deaths, 64% of those dying w/co-morbidity) had Hypertension.
This post brought to you by a New York State resident with....Hypertension.
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misanman
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Our county has had 18 die from Covid-19. The age breakout is:
80+ 6
65-79 10
50-65 1
18-49 1
This is in Michigan. County population is about 360,000.
80+ 6
65-79 10
50-65 1
18-49 1
This is in Michigan. County population is about 360,000.
OP
OP
Midpack
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That's great info, and what I was originally looking for. Thanks!The New York State tracking data (w/close to 10K deaths) shows that THE number one co-morbidity BY FAR is .... Hypertension.
Source: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.go...ker-Fatalities?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n
As of 4/12/20 w/9385 deaths, 8257 (88%) had a co-morbidity, and of those 5266 (56% of deaths, 64% of those dying w/co-morbidity) had Hypertension.
This post brought to you by a New York State resident with....Hypertension.
OP
OP
Midpack
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Maybe I missed something, but your conclusions are how comorbitities affect contracting Covid-19, not dying from it. It has to be there somewhere, but I couldn't find deaths versus comorbitities there. Where is it?
Obviously contracting Covid-19 is bad, but dying from it is something far more serious obviously. So the central question to me is what lead to death?
And they concluded:
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Poor wave, rich wave?
The disadvantaged populations are getting a double-whammy. First, they probably have less time and money to optimize food and exercise choices, among other challenges that chip away at health. And second, they might not have the option to simply forego going to work and the jobs they have probably are less likely to allow working remotely. So they are the first wave...they have to be "out there" and they might not be in optimal health. Is that what we're seeing in the statistics?
If there's any logic in the above premise, might that mean that this first wave might be different, from a socioeconomic standpoint, from the next wave? (Or third wave, etc)
If the socioeconomically disadvantaged herd immunity is established, then those who could afford to sequester themselves will remain at risk, and when the world resumes toward more traditional operations, this other cohort might make up a higher proportion of the cases.
The advantage of being in a later wave is, of course, more will be known about how to minimize impact of the disease. No one knows how fast that knowledge will arrive, but I'm hoping it will be soon.
The disadvantaged populations are getting a double-whammy. First, they probably have less time and money to optimize food and exercise choices, among other challenges that chip away at health. And second, they might not have the option to simply forego going to work and the jobs they have probably are less likely to allow working remotely. So they are the first wave...they have to be "out there" and they might not be in optimal health. Is that what we're seeing in the statistics?
If there's any logic in the above premise, might that mean that this first wave might be different, from a socioeconomic standpoint, from the next wave? (Or third wave, etc)
If the socioeconomically disadvantaged herd immunity is established, then those who could afford to sequester themselves will remain at risk, and when the world resumes toward more traditional operations, this other cohort might make up a higher proportion of the cases.
The advantage of being in a later wave is, of course, more will be known about how to minimize impact of the disease. No one knows how fast that knowledge will arrive, but I'm hoping it will be soon.
Are you telling me at 6'6" I should weigh 156lbs? Ridiculous! Unless maybe they are casting for a WW2 death camp movie.
I think there are a number of factors at play. And as the pandemic plays out, and more data is collected, a better picture will emerge.
First, the key in figuring out the OP ? is to understand the disease process. And this itself is still being understood. But it looks like there is an inoculating event, then a period (very extended for a human virus) where the virus is replicating and during this period the human is also just “trying” to figure out what is going on, and then there is the “battle” period between the host and virus. At each of these points, and at each point along this process, the virus, or the host, could have the advantage. The ultimate goal is for the human to gain the upper hand and defeat the virus.
So starting from the beginning, if the inoculating dose is very large, then the exponential growth of the virus overwhelms the human’s opportunity and time-frame to mount a successful battle. This may have happened eg. in Dr. Li WianLiang, who as an ophthalmologist, was seeing multiple patients, very up close, just inches from the faces of people who were sick/asymptomatic carriers. This may have also happened in the cases of ED physicians and hands-on nurses who passed away, though healthy, after encountering massive, or repeated large inoculum doses. And it is also suggested by some studies from Italy, where it’s showing that elderly people who got COVID from live-in COVID family had a higher chance of dying, presumably because they were exposed to larger doses when co-habitating than say, randomly handing the same banister in an apt bldg stairwell.
Then there is the question of ACE2 receptors being the landing pad of SARS-CoV2. So smokers are at increased risk, and this is presumed in part due to their ACE2 receptors being up-regulated. And presumably there is genetic variation of ACE2 expression too. Not sure how much this will be shown in AA populations, as (IMO) all the other possible reasons are more probable (having front-line/essential jobs such as bus driver, janitorial staff in hospitals, etc).
Then once the virus gets into your body, how well does your body function? As an organism? So SARS-CoV2 has been shown to directly attack lungs (everybody knows this one), your kidneys, heart, brainstem and possibly meninges, and liver. So a baseline problem in any of those organs would be disadvantageous. Diabetes is a problem because it decreases your immune system well-functioning, and it also damages almost every organ in your body. Obesity is a problem because of a number of different reasons, but the most obvious would be that it makes the body less efficient in what it needs to do, and specifically regarding breathing, causes a significant extra load on breathing, which can become very problematic in full blown COVID (even w/o the obesity).
The last stage of the disease process, where the body is mounting an immune response to SARS-CoV2, that immune process can go overboard, a.k.a. cytokine storm. This may be the puzzler in seemingly young, healthy people dying.
Things that suppress your immune system would also be disadvantageous, eg. pregnancy, body fighting cancer, body on chemo, kidney disease.
First, the key in figuring out the OP ? is to understand the disease process. And this itself is still being understood. But it looks like there is an inoculating event, then a period (very extended for a human virus) where the virus is replicating and during this period the human is also just “trying” to figure out what is going on, and then there is the “battle” period between the host and virus. At each of these points, and at each point along this process, the virus, or the host, could have the advantage. The ultimate goal is for the human to gain the upper hand and defeat the virus.
So starting from the beginning, if the inoculating dose is very large, then the exponential growth of the virus overwhelms the human’s opportunity and time-frame to mount a successful battle. This may have happened eg. in Dr. Li WianLiang, who as an ophthalmologist, was seeing multiple patients, very up close, just inches from the faces of people who were sick/asymptomatic carriers. This may have also happened in the cases of ED physicians and hands-on nurses who passed away, though healthy, after encountering massive, or repeated large inoculum doses. And it is also suggested by some studies from Italy, where it’s showing that elderly people who got COVID from live-in COVID family had a higher chance of dying, presumably because they were exposed to larger doses when co-habitating than say, randomly handing the same banister in an apt bldg stairwell.
Then there is the question of ACE2 receptors being the landing pad of SARS-CoV2. So smokers are at increased risk, and this is presumed in part due to their ACE2 receptors being up-regulated. And presumably there is genetic variation of ACE2 expression too. Not sure how much this will be shown in AA populations, as (IMO) all the other possible reasons are more probable (having front-line/essential jobs such as bus driver, janitorial staff in hospitals, etc).
Then once the virus gets into your body, how well does your body function? As an organism? So SARS-CoV2 has been shown to directly attack lungs (everybody knows this one), your kidneys, heart, brainstem and possibly meninges, and liver. So a baseline problem in any of those organs would be disadvantageous. Diabetes is a problem because it decreases your immune system well-functioning, and it also damages almost every organ in your body. Obesity is a problem because of a number of different reasons, but the most obvious would be that it makes the body less efficient in what it needs to do, and specifically regarding breathing, causes a significant extra load on breathing, which can become very problematic in full blown COVID (even w/o the obesity).
The last stage of the disease process, where the body is mounting an immune response to SARS-CoV2, that immune process can go overboard, a.k.a. cytokine storm. This may be the puzzler in seemingly young, healthy people dying.
Things that suppress your immune system would also be disadvantageous, eg. pregnancy, body fighting cancer, body on chemo, kidney disease.
CardsFan
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
The New York State tracking data (w/close to 10K deaths) shows that THE number one co-morbidity BY FAR is .... Hypertension.
Source: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n
As of 4/12/20 w/9385 deaths, 8257 (88%) had a co-morbidity, and of those 5266 (56% of deaths, 64% of those dying w/co-morbidity) had Hypertension.
This post brought to you by a New York State resident with....Hypertension.
Good to see the data, but I'm not sure what to make of the issue of hypertension. According to the American Heart Assoc, about 1/3 of all adults over 20 and about 75% of those over 65 have it: https://www.heart.org/idc/groups/heart-public/@wcm/@sop/@smd/documents/downloadable/ucm_319587.pdf
Nemo2
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It's graduated......for Fauci, being a little guy, he'd be on the low end of the spectrum......so, if you were a distance runner, I guess it'd be around 188 lbs.....which would give you a 'normal range' BMI of around 22.
https://www.serpentine.org.uk/pages/advice_frank01.html
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Dtail
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Hypertension (HTN) affects a lot of the human body, esp. the heart and kidneys. The deaths from COVID19 are not just b/c of respiratory failure. Causes include heart failure and kidney failure. The press talks a lot about ventilators, when in fact, a lot of those patients are also needing dialysis. Renal failure in COVID seems to be caused by a lot of different factors, including direct damage by SARS CoV2, underlying damage from HTN, micro or big sized blood clots from a DIC like picture (disseminated intravascular coagulopathy).
There are also ACE2 receptors on the heart. So damage to heart in COVID19 patients can include: underlying damage by HTN, direct damage by SARS CoV2 (seeing complete heart block in patients), increased work required by massively inflammatory state, the tiny and big sized blood clots previously mentioned above, increased work because of back-up pressure from not well working lungs.
This is prob enough detail. I’m going to refrain from posting more medical info b/c it prob just sounds scarey, and don’t want to be fear-mongering.
copyright1997reloaded
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
The New York State tracking data (w/close to 10K deaths) shows that THE number one co-morbidity BY FAR is .... Hypertension.
Source: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.go...ker-Fatalities?:embed=yes&:toolbar=no&:tabs=n
As of 4/12/20 w/9385 deaths, 8257 (88%) had a co-morbidity, and of those 5266 (56% of deaths, 64% of those dying w/co-morbidity) had Hypertension.
This post brought to you by a New York State resident with....Hypertension.
It is similiar in Louisiana. While I can't find the total percentage of those with a co-morbidity on LA's site, Hypertension ranks high. I do have a hard time believing their obesity stats. LA tend to be filled with "large" people.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) | Department of Health | State of Louisiana
Turbo29
Full time employment: Posting here.
This happened in the 1980's with AIDS. The media kept beating the drum that everyone was at risk. Of course anyone could get it but the chances were nowhere close if you were not a member of a high risk group.
I lived in the San Francisco Bay area during the 1980's and, as a member of the main high risk group, I remember how palpable the fear was. I came through unscathed, but that was not a foregone conclusion.
I now see all of the fear and terror some people are expressing. While I understand it, I refuse to join in. Been there, done that. i will not live my life in fear.
REWahoo
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While the subject of this thread is risk of dying from the virus, we shouldn't ignore the fact we know little to nothing of the long-term effects of the disease on those - of any age - who contract it and survive. This might be especially true of those who have severe enough symptoms to require hospitalization.
Only time will tell.
Only time will tell.
OP
OP
Midpack
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I've updated the OP to illustrate why I wish ALL sources would quit publishing numbers of cases or deaths without normalizing for populations!!! The two charts are significantly different. The second chart is easier to draw preliminary conclusions from, the first is more easily misinterpreted.
With the somewhat loose precautions we've taken, your chances of dying from Covid-19 in the US at age 45-54 yo is 7 in a million (population). At age 35-44 yo is 3 in a million. At age 25-34 it's 1 in a million. At 15-24 it's 1 in 10 million...
That's why I think a story about an unhealthy 54 yo schoolteacher who dies of Covid-19 without qualification is misleading. She's one of 7 in a million...
With the somewhat loose precautions we've taken, your chances of dying from Covid-19 in the US at age 45-54 yo is 7 in a million (population). At age 35-44 yo is 3 in a million. At age 25-34 it's 1 in a million. At 15-24 it's 1 in 10 million...
That's why I think a story about an unhealthy 54 yo schoolteacher who dies of Covid-19 without qualification is misleading. She's one of 7 in a million...
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Winemaker
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Yes, I agree with gerntz, Dr. Birx did state that all dead WITH Covid 19, would have Covid 19 AS the cause of death. In a related article that I can't find, it mentioned in hard hit areas, they don't want to waste time and resources doing autopsies. However, an article by the NYT rejected that idea and said that it was because of the lack of tests.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/us/coronavirus-deaths-undercount.html
Don't see why both can't be true. Don' read that NYT rejected the waste of resouces idea, just added another, but just skimmed article.
32.8% of severe COVID cases had at least one comorbidity. Nothing to do with contracting it - the sample is drawn from the infected population. So, roughly 2/3 didn't. I'd insert a screenshot, but I can't figure out how to do it with this interface. Just search the link for 32.8%. https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/early/2020/03/17/13993003.00547-2020
eytonxav
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
+1
There's an assumption here that absence of certain preexisting conditions means reduced COVID-19 risk. It appears to be a correlation based on a limited data set. This needs to be demonstrated and proven by health care researchers , and that will take time and, unfortunately, much more suffering.
eytonxav
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
If it damages a persons lungs, it can certainly play havoc on the heart and possibly other organs.
Don't leave out the medial and allied industries. While the Gov might have it's proprietary reasons to hype/misrepresent/spin these things, the Gov takes money from Business entities to further those interests. The so caled "private sector" is not innocent or uninvolved. They are motivators of these behaviors
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