How Coronavirus Infected Some, but Not All, in a Restaurant

[Midpack]

I know there was a restaurant thread earlier, but for those who like actual data, this might be a worthwhile read. Eating at restaurants is one of our favorite pastimes, but this will probably keep us away for quite a while. One or two states are reportedly going to allow restaurants to reopen?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/health/airflow-coronavirus-restaurants.html

In January, at a restaurant in Guangzhou, China, one diner infected with the novel coronavirus but not yet feeling sick appeared to have spread the disease to nine other people. One of the restaurant’s air-conditioners apparently blew the virus particles around the dining room.There were 73 other diners who ate that day on the same floor of the five-story restaurant, and the good news is they did not become sick. Neither did the eight employees who were working on the floor at the time.

That outbreak illustrates some of the challenges that restaurants will face when they try to reopen. Ventilation systems can create complex patterns of airflow and keep viruses aloft, so simply spacing tables six feet apart — the minimum distance that the C.D.C. advises you keep from other people — may not be sufficient to safeguard restaurant patrons.

 

[michelek]

Eating at restaurants is totally normal in the 21st century. But I remember not so long ago when eating out was a splurge. Maybe just once a year! For a very special occasion!! I hope this quarantine has taught many of us how to stock a pantry, plan well- balanced meals, and cook healthy meals at home!
We had noticed recently that we couldn’t go out to eat without spending $25 or more per person once all was said and done. Add some wine and that price went up dramatically.
With the issues of the air flow in the restaurants and spacing- how can a restaurant even reopen if they can only seat 50% or less of their previous patrons.
The math just doesn’t work. The whole business model is based on a head count. Their rent is based on the number of people they can seat, etc. Restaurants are going to have to a major reboot. Many won’t make it. Only a few will survive.

The air flow issue is also a problem for offices ... this is bad.

 

[audreyh1]

I don’t think we’re going to be dining in for a very long time.

We eat very well at home, so we’re not hurting at all.

 

[MRG]

We won't be going out anytime soon. Carryout sure, sit down nope.

 

[Midpack]

We won't be going out anytime soon. Carryout sure, sit down nope.

We’re doing carry out 3 times/week, but it doesn’t make sense to me to carry out an upscale meal - like a prime steak among many other choices. Or a tasting menu. I don’t know of an upscale restaurant that’s gone to carry out around me, they’re completely closed.

So I’m thinking fast food is doing fine through this and fast casual restaurants may survive on carry out (with way fewer employees). But I don’t see how most upscale restaurants will survive this. Between proximity and ventilation, it’s going to be a very long time before sit down restaurant eating makes sense.

 

[DrRoy]

We have one upscale restaurant that offers a special every day. We see an Email about it. We have been getting carry out once a week.

 

[Ronstar]

We went the first 3 weeks of shutdown eating all meals at home. But recently got take out mexican food a couple of times, and been through McDonald's, Culver's, Taco Bell and KFC drive ups. I don't see us going to a sit down restaurant for a long time, but will continue the local drive-ups and take-out.

I also don't see how upscale restaurants will survive this. They may be allowed to reopen, but IMO it will be a long time before they would get enough customers to make it financially.

 

[Dtail]

Well there must be some upscale restaurants in Georgia. Let's see.

 

[Markola]

Georgia has a very rich and varied cuisine and it’s sad to think about all the unique places that might not make it. I live in MN and the rage for years in the foodie scene here has been Southern themed variations. People like to eat so let’s hope it all comes back.

 

[sengsational]

Prediction: restaurants will lure customers back by installing UV-C emitters.

 

[donheff]

Prediction: restaurants will lure customers back by installing UV-C emitters.

Interesting thought. Spread them out on the ceiling and toast the virus. Are they safe for the guinea pigs basking in the glow?

 

[Midpack]

Prediction: restaurants will lure customers back by installing UV-C emitters.

That’s interesting, I was totally unaware. There will have to be new approaches or large swathes of our economy will fail - e.g. close personal contact businesses like hair, nails, restaurants and large public gatherings. Otherwise we may all be faced ultimately with the Sweden or a Georgia approach.

 

[ivinsfan]

Well I'm not sure about the validity of this entire premise. At the A table were these people complete strangers that only met randomly at this restaurant? Were they family members, or maybe coworkers, that spent a lot of time together anyway? Did they travel together on public transit to get to restaurant.

The people at table B don't fit the regular pattern of becoming ill 4 to5 days from exposure, I know it can take longer but it was 12 days for the first person at table b to get sick. All 3 sick people at table b became ill within 4 days which indicates to me that might be family members who picked the virus up at a completely different place.

I'm having trouble accepting the basic premise of this article.

 

[MRG]

We’re doing carry out 3 times/week, but it doesn’t make sense to me to carry out an upscale meal - like a prime steak among many other choices. Or a tasting menu. I don’t know of an upscale restaurant that’s gone to carry out around me, they’re completely closed.

So I’m thinking fast food is doing fine through this and fast casual restaurants may survive on carry out (with way fewer employees). But I don’t see how most upscale restaurants will survive this. Between proximity and ventilation, it’s going to be a very long time before sit down restaurant eating makes sense.

+1 - sadly

DW's birthday is next week. What sounds better for takeout, carnitits or surf and turf?

 

[gwraigty]

So I’m thinking fast food is doing fine through this and fast casual restaurants may survive on carry out (with way fewer employees). But I don’t see how most upscale restaurants will survive this. Between proximity and ventilation, it’s going to be a very long time before sit down restaurant eating makes sense.

Fast food and fast casual are not necessarily doing fine. As DD works in a fast casual restaurant (Panera Bread), I have first hand knowledge of this. I'm not trying to be argumentative, just laying out some facts that I'm aware of. The official reporting via Google is that the chain lost 50% of their business when the dining rooms closed. DD's location lost much more than that, as the dining room was the majority of their business. It can be quite location dependent. Business has picked up a little over the last couple of weeks, but nothing near what I would call fine.

We have a Panera Bread closer to our house that we drive past when I take her to work. It's pretty much dead. That's not how it used to be there.

The Chipotle next door to DD's location is also hurting badly. The Taco Bell and Burger King in the same area are ghost towns. Probably the cars in the parking lots all belong to the few employees on shift. The McDonald's in the same area appeared to have the most drive thru customers right at the beginning, but I've noticed it's been more empty there lately. I'd guess that the 22% reported decline in McDonald's business is deeper than that at that location.

I don't think any of the chains, fast food or full sit down, are going to go out of business across the board. I think any independent restaurant faces the biggest threat right now.

 

[MichaelB]

Restaurants and taverns have been around for thousands of years and have survived wars, pandemics, natural disasters, and everything man and nature has thrown at them. The most likely outcome IMHO is many existing restaurants will fail, and they will be replaced by others that figure out how to do business with this new challenge. COVID will remind us once again just how innovative and creative we are.

 

[gwraigty]

There is a live broadcast airing right now of the Ohio Economic Recovery Task Force. The current speaker is a McDonald's franchisee with 1,000 employees. He had to furlough half of them over the last several weeks. He estimates he lost 40% of his business, which is quite a bit higher than the official reported number I read of McDonald's business being down by 22%.

 

[gattara]

I live in Decatur, Georgia, a small city known for its great restaurants, casual and upscale. It will be interesting to see what happens. So far, I am hearing fear and anger from residents. We are not happy about our governor's strategy. People are not at all eager to dine in restaurants. The couple bowling alleys I know of have already announced they will not be opening, the same for theaters. I don't have a clue how the rural areas are feeling, but the mayor of Atlanta is urging people to stay home, and I think that is what most of us in the metro area will be doing. Amazing to me that the CDC and Emory are here in Georgia and yet ... well, what can I say?

 

[Midpack]

One day I’ll learn to post exactly what I mean, my bad.

Fast food and fast casual are not necessarily doing fine. As DD works in a fast casual restaurant (Panera Bread), I have first hand knowledge of this. I'm not trying to be argumentative, just laying out some facts that I'm aware of. The official reporting via Google is that the chain lost 50% of their business when the dining rooms closed.
I don't think any of the chains, fast food or full sit down, are going to go out of business across the board.

I meant fast food especially and fast casual are doing fine compared to upscale sit down restaurants. Fast food and some fast casual was already set up for drive thru and/or carry out so an easy switch to keep the business alive for now. Many middle tier restaurants have converted to carry out and curbside quickly. We love upscale restaurants and would like to support them but we just can’t see spending $100 for carry out (that’ll be cold by the time we get home, nuking isn’t an answer) for 12-18 months if that’s what it comes to.

Restaurants and taverns have been around for thousands of years and have survived wars, pandemics, natural disasters, and everything man and nature has thrown at them. The most likely outcome IMHO is many existing restaurants will fail, and they will be replaced by others that figure out how to do business with this new challenge. COVID will remind us once again just how innovative and creative we are.

I didn’t mean for all time, I don’t doubt that ultimate outcome at all. But I think many of the incumbents we know and enjoy today will/may not survive this episode unless some miracle therapies surprise us soon. I suspect very few could survive waiting 12-18 months for a vaccine if that’s what it takes for leaders AND customers to come back.

 

[ivinsfan]

Restaurants and taverns have been around for thousands of years and have survived wars, pandemics, natural disasters, and everything man and nature has thrown at them. The most likely outcome IMHO is many existing restaurants will fail, and they will be replaced by others that figure out how to do business with this new challenge. COVID will remind us once again just how innovative and creative we are.

I just googled Britain's oldest pubs...and am seeing some from the early 1000's and your comment about innovating is right on. Most of the earliest pubs were build in places with larger workforces of men and no places to live.

The men would rent rooms on the top floor and get ale, bread and meat inside the pub.

Recreational dining is a more modern concept and could certainly be in great peril when this is finally over. Restaurants run on thin margins in the best of times....our smallish town has several wonderful independent options and they all closed up well over 25 years ago.. we have nothing that isn't chain operated and not many of those either.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I've read the OP several times now, and am still confused. Granted, I am only on coffee #1, but:

and the good news is they did not become sick.

So what is the article really saying in terms of
a) Infection spread and
b) Symptomatic cases

 

[GravitySucks]

As soon as I verify the oysters are fresh I will be visiting my favorite local restaurant to splurge on that tomahawk steak I haven't been able to justify before.
I have not eaten take out for a month, though I did stop at the local pizza pub for a beer to go and donate as they've been feeding some needy locals and hospital workers. My home cooking is better than most restaurant, why bother with take out?

 

[JustCurious]

I will resume eating out at restaurants as soon as I am able, I am looking forward to it.

 

[Rianne]

A friend of ours contracted Legionnaires disease from a conference he was attending. He sat near the A/C system in an older building. He ended up in an ICU oxygen tent for several weeks. He was a member (we were not) of a large Christian community that prayed day and night for his recovery. He recovered and is a professor at U of I. It took months to recover completely. I believe this is one miracle and I don't believe in miracles.

 

[Badger]

This phenomenon can be applied to other environments too. Southern states are beginning to turn up the air conditioners as summer approaches as well as opening access to beaches that were closed. With Florida relying on tourism many people from other areas will soon be taking a vacation there. Lots of businesses will be helping spread the virus and with the close proximity of bathers at the beach this too will be a stimulus for spreading the virus. Six feet will not be nearly enough room as you walk into someones slip stream. You might as well be in their face. Then you compound that with the breeze helping in the distribution of the virus just like you have in a restaurant spreading virus with an air handler.

Something to think about.


Cheers!