Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas - and everywhere else!

[tmm99]

Here is a pretty incredible graphic from the Johns Hopkins 7 day average data:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/tock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

A great graph. Thank you for posting. So easy to see the increase.

 

[pdxgal]

I should have titled this thread, "Houston, We Have a Problem."

Funny (morbidly so) and incredibly sad. Apparently the TMC has stopped publishing their ICU bed capacity now that it's reached 100%. The situation is starting to look like NYC two months ago...

 

[Midpack]

Masks became a requirement in NC at 5pm Friday and our Gov delayed moving to the next phase because we’re trending in the wrong direction too. After 3-4 weeks where DW and I were definitely in the minority or alone with our masks/distancing - Sat and Sun almost everyone was wearing a mask (Whole Foods, Dick’s Sporting, Target, local coffee, local grocer and local pizza), and one store (Dick’s) was handing out masks to the few morons who didn’t have them.

Fingers crossed that continues here, and in TX (where my sister lives).

“Americans can be counted on to do the right thing, after they’ve exhausted all the other possibilities.”

Even more true now 70+ years after Churchill never said it...

 

[pdxgal]

We don't know long term effects. Many articles, cases are hinting at the possibility of recurring symptoms, new symptoms weeks later.

While in grad school I got mono. Seemingly recovered OK. Then a couple years later I started having weird warm sensations in my calves and face. Doctor's couldn't pinpoint anything. Few years later a friend suggested I have my thyroid tested, after I complained about being tired all the time. Turns out I had Hashimoto's thyroiditis (autoimmune disorder), and was hypothyroid. Some people theorize the Epstein-Barr virus that causes mono can trigger such other conditions. My naturopath surveyed her patients with hypothyroidism, and all had had mono.

So yeah, we don't know what we don't know when it comes to Covid19. Could be it can lead to other health problems. Viruses are nasty.

 

[Chuckanut]

A great graph. Thank you for posting. So easy to see the increase.

The JH state 3 day average maps show Texas and Florida are near spiking. Good luck handling that.


https://coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[Montecfo]

Katsmeow,

Yes, I think you have those 3 groups right. We are definitely in the first group (vigilant) and are puzzled by folks in the 2nd group (go with the flow). And the 3rd group (stubborn/hostiles) just seems insane. See those clips on YouTube of people getting into fights when asked to wear masks, and worse.

My wife's sister and her husband are like us, very vigilant. Her brother and his family, on the other hand, just seem to be ignoring the virus and constantly have to be reminded how dangerous their contact with their 93 year old mother can be. Those folks are all Texans. Another Texas friend visited recently and seemed to not wish to wear a mask. It seems very strange. Here in Va people are usually masked and must be when in public buildings.

People should care enough to wear masks and be smart enough to socially distance. We are hoping to stay healthy and the precautions and inconvenience, though not fun, seem worth it.

 

[audreyh1]

Wow, they did a nice job on data visualization. The underlying data are very remarkable.

Yes, CNBC created the graphic from the Johns Hopkins data as far as I can tell.

 

[audreyh1]

Funny (morbidly so) and incredibly sad. Apparently the TMC has stopped publishing their ICU bed capacity now that it's reached 100%. The situation is starting to look like NYC two months ago...

Yeah, I see a story now. Looks like they started publishing again, but redid the graphs. Miscommunication or recommunication creates confusion about beds and capacity. Looks like a mess of deletions and redoings and who told who what. Details are here in this Houston Chronicle article. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/ne...pitals-hit-100-base-ICU-capacity-15372256.php

Last Wednesday, 11 TMC leaders issued a statement warning that an “alarming” increase in hospitalizations soon could “overwhelm” their systems.
...
Houston Methodist CEO Dr. Marc Boom stressed that the new data was not reinvented — all the figures and projection models are the same — but was simply reformatted in an effort to make clear that reaching 100 percent of capacity in an ICU is a moving target. TMC hospitals have a combined 373 beds, for instance, that can become ICU beds with a “challenging” but “doable” amount of effort, Boom said, with the reassignment of trained staff and equipment.

Doing so would take the TMC facilities’ combined 93 percent ICU capacity as of the Sunday report down to 72 percent, the chart shows.

 

[rodi]

Perhaps.

But here is another data point, though not from Texas.
In my home state of Washington, I just returned from a walk in a not very crowded park. The Governor's rule is mask are to be worn inside at all time when one is awahy from home. Outside one must wear a mask when he/she can't stay at least feet from other people. At this park staying 6 feet away was a piece of cake. Staying 20 feet away is not a problem. Yet, I estimate about 1/3 of the people in the park were wearing masks.

I hope that means our recent upswing in new CV victims is temporary. OTOH, the current Rt has jumped from 1.09 to 1.14 in the past few days. A month ago it was hovering around 0.95. We can hope.

Perhaps the people wearing masks in the park want to limit taking the masks on and off... And hence toughing their faces. When I walk my dog most of my walk is more than 6' away from other pedestrians and bikes, but I just leave my mask on the whole time to avoid having to keep putting it on, and taking it off.

 

[Sunset]

Yeah, I see a story now. Looks like they started publishing again, but redid the graphs. Miscommunication or recommunication creates confusion about beds and capacity. Looks like a mess of deletions and redoings and who told who what. Details are here in this Houston Chronicle article. https://www.houstonchronicle.com/ne...pitals-hit-100-base-ICU-capacity-15372256.php

Good new is:
"TMC hospitals have a combined 373 beds, for instance, that can become ICU beds with a “challenging” but “doable” amount of effort, Boom said, with the reassignment of trained staff and equipment..."

Better new is: By using the floors they can increase capacity even more

 

[Brat]

When ICUs approach capacity patients are triaged. Those they think they can save will be admitted, others sent home to die.

 

[Chuckanut]

Perhaps the people wearing masks in the park want to limit taking the masks on and off... And hence toughing their faces. When I walk my dog most of my walk is more than 6' away from other pedestrians and bikes, but I just leave my mask on the whole time to avoid having to keep putting it on, and taking it off.

That's a very good point. Taking the mask on and off can contaminate it.

Still,in an outdoor environment where keeping 6 feet minimum is so easy to do, it is comforting to see people who still wear a mask. Or maybe they know they are infected and still want to go out in public? I hope not.

 

[harllee]

Masks became a requirement in NC at 5pm Friday and our Gov delayed moving to the next phase because we’re trending in the wrong direction too. After 3-4 weeks where DW and I were definitely in the minority or alone with our masks/distancing - Sat and Sun almost everyone was wearing a mask (Whole Foods, Dick’s Sporting, Target, local coffee, local grocer and local pizza), and one store (Dick’s) was handing out masks to the few morons who didn’t have them.

Fingers crossed that continues here, and in TX (where my sister lives).

“Americans can be counted on to do the right thing, after they’ve exhausted all the other possibilities.”

Even more true now 70+ years after Churchill never said it...

Here in Chapel Hill (home of UNC) almost all older people are wearing masks. But we have a lot of college kids and many if them are still not wearing masks. To get into UNC you have to be top of your class and high SAT-- I would have thought these kids would have been smart enough to understand why they need to be wearing a mask. The UNC football Coach sent out a tweet yesterday that said if the students want school to open and have a football season everyone needs to wear a mask. Maybe the kids will listen to him.

 

[tb001]

That's a very good point. Taking the mask on and off can contaminate it.

Still,in an outdoor environment where keeping 6 feet minimum is so easy to do, it is comforting to see people who still wear a mask. Or maybe they know they are infected and still want to go out in public? I hope not.

I see this a lot with older people. I think they’re hoping it gives an added layer of protection.

We went to a local beach last week and it was pretty mask free but also very uncrowded and easy to distance. Still, while walking back to the car we found ourselves on a path and unable to distance. We’d forgotten to put our masks back on and, after struggling to find mine quickly, realized it had fallen out of my pocket. From now on I’ll be keeping it at least around my neck in these situations.

 

[youbet]

The worst part is its all mostly avoidable and unnecessary. We could have had this thing mostly contained by now.

Well........ We could have continued to "flatten the curve." That's a little different than having it contained enough to allow full opening of the economy.

 

[anethum]

Well........ We could have continued to "flatten the curve." That's a little different than having it contained enough to allow full opening of the economy.

We could have had it substantially contained if there had been an aggressive and responsible response initially. South Korea, Taiwan, Norway, Costa Rica, Thailand, Vietnam, New Zealand, & Australia all managed to contain the pandemic within their borders and have much less economic disruption than the U.S. as a result.

 

[gattara]

We could have had it substantially contained if there had been an aggressive and responsible response initially. South Korea, Taiwan, Norway, Costa Rica, Thailand, Vietnam, New Zealand, & Australia all managed to contain the pandemic within their borders and have much less economic disruption than the U.S. as a result.

I don't disagree with this. I listened to Bill Gates from the beginning of this and his advice was to shut down the whole country at once for a few months. He said it would be painful, but necessary. This is my question ... the USA is a big country with a large population. Had we done a national shutdown, would we have achieved the same result? Smarter brains than mine can answer that, perhaps. It's something I ponder.

 

[MRG]

We could have had it substantially contained if there had been an aggressive and responsible response initially. South Korea, Taiwan, Norway, Costa Rica, Thailand, Vietnam, New Zealand, & Australia all managed to contain the pandemic within their borders and have much less economic disruption than the U.S. as a result.

Recently read China locked down 400k people because of 18 people infected. IMHO that's how you control this thing. No fun but other options don't look better.

 

[CardsFan]

Here in Chapel Hill (home of UNC) almost all older people are wearing masks. But we have a lot of college kids and many if them are still not wearing masks. To get into UNC you have to be top of your class and high SAT-- I would have thought these kids would have been smart enough to understand why they need to be wearing a mask. The UNC football Coach sent out a tweet yesterday that said if the students want school to open and have a football season everyone needs to wear a mask. Maybe the kids will listen to him.

No Football?

Seriously, the coach saying this may actually have more of an influence than "just" a dean. Maybe if he requires all players to mask up on campus, or sit out the season, he can really make a difference.

 

[harllee]

No Football?

Seriously, the coach saying this may actually have more of an influence than "just" a dean. Maybe if he requires all players to mask up on campus, or sit out the season, he can really make a difference.

The UNC football players have returned to campus and they are suppose to be all wearing masks and staying in social distancing "bubble." But I am seeing some of them out and about with no masks. (The football players are very large so they are hard to miss.) Clemson has reported that 30 plus of their football players have already tested positive for Covid-19. UNC has so far refused to report on numbers of positive cases. College football looks unlikely to me and I hate it, I am a big fan. Maybe if they can get the players to wear masks and social distance, etc we could have college football this Fall with no fans. But these players are still 18-22 and feel they are invincible.

 

[Sunset]

Recently read China locked down 400k people because of 18 people infected. IMHO that's how you control this thing. No fun but other options don't look better.

Easy in a strict country without constitutional rights. But still expensive in lost production and spending.

Here, I think the reality is we can slow down the spread via masks and physical distance, isolation when sick, but that is about all that will done.

 

[garyt]

e?

Just yesterday, there was a HUGE boat party (tens of thousands of people that go out to a local island and party hard) called the "Jobbie Nooner". It's a tradition here and a huge mosh pit of people all within inches of each other. Looked at the pics in the local news..yeah, ZERO masks.

We are so screwed.

HaHa Jobbie Nooner where you can catch covid and an STD at the same time! Metro Detroiter here, too.

 

[Montecfo]

While in grad school I got mono. Seemingly recovered OK. Then a couple years later I started having weird warm sensations in my calves and face. Doctor's couldn't pinpoint anything. Few years later a friend suggested I have my thyroid tested, after I complained about being tired all the time. Turns out I had Hashimoto's thyroiditis (autoimmune disorder), and was hypothyroid. Some people theorize the Epstein-Barr virus that causes mono can trigger such other conditions. My naturopath surveyed her patients with hypothyroidism, and all had had mono.

So yeah, we don't know what we don't know when it comes to Covid19. Could be it can lead to other health problems. Viruses are nasty.

True. Lockdowns also have adverse health consequences, some of which we know, some we probably will figure out later. And then there are financial and social consequences to us and to our kids.

No easy answers here.

 

[Chuckanut]

Wow, it’s getting really scary in Texas!

I don't disagree with this. I listened to Bill Gates from the beginning of this and his advice was to shut down the whole country at once for a few months. He said it would be painful, but necessary. This is my question ... the USA is a big country with a large population. Had we done a national shutdown, would we have achieved the same result? Smarter brains than mine can answer that, perhaps. It's something I ponder.

With all do respect Mr. Gates has no idea what is means to be middle class much less low income or just plain poor. It’s one thing to lock down in a massive estate with a yacht and live In servants. It’s another to be stuck in a small crowded apartment .

 

[Retch The Grate]

With all do respect Mr. Gates has no idea what is means to be middle class much less low income or just plain poor. It’s one thing to lock down in a massive estate with a yacht and live In servants. It’s another to be stuck in a small crowded apartment .

with all due respect, Gates has been thinking about, and actively working to prevent, pandemic outbreaks for years now, with his foundation spending huge amounts of money on the topic. Being rich doesn't mean you magically can't understand poverty.

The statement is true, the economic pain of shutting down the entire country for a couple of months would have been vastly cheaper than the long period of collapsed economic activity that is occurring because of our vastly insufficient response to the virus. We are paying a far higher price, for far longer, than if we had been more aggressive in combating it. We should have shut down everything we could instead of as little as we did, and built extensive contact tracing and testing capacity while we were shut down.

It was obvious in february that it was going to have to happen, we are now far enough along that we could have been on the recovery side of things rather than just getting started on the economic devastation and loss of life.