How long to wait

[bolt]

CNBC is suggesting a comming Pfizer vaccine. Germany's top teired drug producer to US, 2B for 100M units.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/us-...millions-of-doses-of-coronavirus-vaccine.html

Good Luck & Best wishes....

 

[harllee]

Travel for sure would be on my list. Both domestic and international. I’m section hiking the PCT, and would return for a long distance hike there. Visiting family, including my 88 year old parents. Eating in restaurants for sure. In person church services at our mega church.

I enjoy playing the dice, but visiting a casino in Vegas probably would stay off my list. Attending concerts or sporting events stay off the list. I’m disillusioned with sports now anyway. Always loved sports for the escape. Now, to watch sports, is like watching the news. That’ll stay off my list.

Those are my thoughts thus far.

MuirWannabe, I am not sure of your age but obviously you are healthy and probably you are younger than me (I am age 69) so your risk of dying or getting very sick from Covid is less than mine (I figure my risk of dying from Covid if I get infected is about 5% and it is hard to estimate my risk of getting a long term problems but I would guess another 5% chance of getting long term disability). I think everyone needs to assess their own risk of death/long term sickness and make their own decisions. BUT you also have to consider the risk of others if you contract the virus and expose them. You and I are very lucky that we still have parents--my mom is almost 90 and still in pretty good shape (still drives) but I assess her risk of dying from Covid if she were to get infected at about 20%. I have visited her in person --but outside, wearing masks, social distancing and for only a short period. When you visit your parents I think you need to consider their risk also. I don't think I could live with myself if I gave my mother the virus and she were to die from it.

 

[Aerides]

I think everyone needs to assess their own risk of death/long term sickness and make their own decisions. BUT you also have to consider the risk of others if you contract the virus and expose them.

I think by now, any of the reasonable, intelligent members of this forum, are well aware that their actions create risk to assess not only for themselves, but increase the exposure risk to any loved ones with whom they are in physical contact, and act accordingly.

For example:

If I'm ready to travel but my husband isn't, we won't.
If we do travel, then return, we will self-quarantine for 2 weeks before we see local family again, etc.

 

[harllee]

I think by now, any of the reasonable, intelligent members of this forum, are well aware that their actions create risk to assess not only for themselves, but increase the exposure risk to any loved ones with whom they are in physical contact, and act accordingly.

For example:

If I'm ready to travel but my husband isn't, we won't.
If we do travel, then return, we will self-quarantine for 2 weeks before we see local family again, etc.

Aerides, good plan. And if you had to travel to see family (either an overnight car trip or a plane ride) would you quarantine yourself at the end of your travels for 14 days before you see your long distance family? For example, if I had to fly to see my 90 year old mom, then I would have to hole up somewhere for 14 days before I saw her.

 

[Fermion]

Being really tall, I have not had the urge to fly. I don't enjoy large gatherings, although we did have a camping trip 2 weeks ago with our D&D group that was a ton of fun (we took our little 17 foot sailboat and it was a blast). I could wait many years for things to get back to normal, but I think this is because I am still 49.97 years old.

 

[MuirWannabe]

MuirWannabe, I am not sure of your age but obviously you are healthy and probably you are younger than me (I am age 69) so your risk of dying or getting very sick from Covid is less than mine (I figure my risk of dying from Covid if I get infected is about 5% and it is hard to estimate my risk of getting a long term problems but I would guess another 5% chance of getting long term disability). I think everyone needs to assess their own risk of death/long term sickness and make their own decisions. BUT you also have to consider the risk of others if you contract the virus and expose them. You and I are very lucky that we still have parents--my mom is almost 90 and still in pretty good shape (still drives) but I assess her risk of dying from Covid if she were to get infected at about 20%. I have visited her in person --but outside, wearing masks, social distancing and for only a short period. When you visit your parents I think you need to consider their risk also. I don't think I could live with myself if I gave my mother the virus and she were to die from it.

You must be prepared then, to never see your mother again. She may pass, without ever spending in person time with you, getting a hug from you, etc. Obviously, I don’t want to give my parents Covid. But, if they are to die alone without seeing family what’s the point. I’m not sure that’s what they’d want. At any rate, I hope you find the solution that works best for you and your mother. Everyone has to work through these things for themselves. As for me, I will not wait forever. I will wait for a little while going forward.

 

[harllee]

You must be prepared then, to never see your mother again. She may pass, without ever spending in person time with you, getting a hug from you, etc. Obviously, I don’t want to give my parents Covid. But, if they are to die alone without seeing family what’s the point. I’m not sure that’s what they’d want. At any rate, I hope you find the solution that works best for you and your mother. Everyone has to work through these things for themselves. As for me, I will not wait forever. I will wait for a little while going forward.

I am seeing my 90 year old mother--outside, wearing masks, staying 6 feet apart for a few minutes at a time. She lives about 2 hours away so I can see her without a lot of traveling. In addition I call her everyday and see her on FaceTime.
Not ideal but it is what makes sense to me.

 

[Markola]

How about the choice of “responsible and adjusted given the dire circumstance?”

It’s Thursday and DW and I renting a pontoon boat today on a national scenic river nearby. There are many joys in our very own beautiful country we haven’t experienced yet. Feels retired to me.

 

[SumDay]

Us introverts defintely fare so much better in this pandemic than extroverts.

Absolutely! I'm handling this much better than DH, who is always the life of the party. He has one close friend that lives nearby, and every other week or so they get together in one of their yards, 6 feet apart, BYO lawn chair, glass, whiskey, cigar, etc., and chat. It's keeping him sane, but barely.

We have been going to restaurants, some. But we go on weekdays, maybe for breakfast or linner (lunch+dinner) around 3 or 4 p.m. Crowds are minimal, and some of our favorite places have outdoor dining.

We took a road trip to North Carolina a few weeks ago, and were very cautious. We've self-quarantined since we've been back and are past the recommended 14 days.

I really don't need much else, except for the library to open up fully. I can live like this for a long, long time. DH? I'm not so sure.

 

[Midpack]

Midpack, you must be a pessimist, focusing on only the worst statement in that video. Here's a longer quote from the video:

"I think with the combination of good public health measures, a degree of global herd immunity, and a good vaccine, which I hope and feel cautiously optimistic that we will get, I think when you put all three of those together, we will get very good control of this. Whether it's this year or next year, I'm not certain, but I think ultimately, with the combination of good public health measures and a vaccine, that we may not eradicate it, but I think we will bring it down to such a low level that we will not be in the position that we are in right now for an extended period of time."

The glass is half-full, not half-empty!

I replied to a post (below) stating Fauci said it was "likely we will have therapeutics soon, and a vaccine maybe early next year." I may have missed it, but I have never heard Fauci go so far as to say it was likely, and I don't consider "cautiously optimistic" the same as "likely."

There has never been an effective vaccine for a coronavirus approved by the FDA before, so it would be unprecedented, but not impossible given the resources (understandably) being thrown at development this time, and advances in pharma tech.

I was just trying to keep things in perspective. After all, half-full is exactly the same as half-empty...but you're welcome to differentiate if you like. Like anyone, I hope there will be an effective vaccine for SARS2. And I hope we are better prepared for the next novel (corona)virus.

@MuirWannabe, I think your prognosis for whether there will be therapeutics and vaccines is not in step with what people like Dr. Francis Collins and Dr. Anthony Fauci are saying. They seem to think that it is likely we will have therapeutics soon, and a vaccine maybe early next year. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

The FDA has never approved a vaccine for humans that is effective against any member of the coronavirus family, which includes SARS, MERS, and several that cause the common cold.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/will-there-be-a-coronavirus-vaccine-maybe-not.html

 

[camfused]

The OPs words, and this discussion, somewhat reminds me of the debate about whether to have the plug pulled on you when you are in a vegetative state. Ok, not as serious but similar.

For some of us, quality of life might outweigh quantity. If Covid is going to keep us locked down for years, and you cannot do a LARGE number of things you wanted to be doing when you retired, then what is the point of living in such a paranoid state...ie, up the risk level, and just do some of these things anyway (if available). I *think* that is what the OP is saying, and I am tempted at times to get on that wagon.

 

[MuirWannabe]

The OPs words, and this discussion, somewhat reminds me of the debate about whether to have the plug pulled on you when you are in a vegetative state. Ok, not as serious but similar.

For some of us, quality of life might outweigh quantity. If Covid is going to keep us locked down for years, and you cannot do a LARGE number of things you wanted to be doing when you retired, then what is the point of living in such a paranoid state...ie, up the risk level, and just do some of these things anyway (if available). I *think* that is what the OP is saying, and I am tempted at times to get on that wagon.

That is essentially what I’m asking. Thanks for restating. Although I don’t like the pull the plug analogy. It appears most folks on this board would wait basically forever.

PS, I also don’t like referring to those who would wait forever as paranoid. IMO, everyone has to make their own decisions through this. Don’t criticize mine, as I won’t criticize yours.

But having said that, you have captured my question and thoughts correctly.

 

[Midpack]

That is essentially what I’m asking. Thanks for restating. Although I don’t like the pull the plug analogy. It appears most folks on this board would wait basically forever.

PS, I also don’t like referring to those who would wait forever as paranoid. IMO, everyone has to make their own decisions through this. Don’t criticize mine, as I won’t criticize yours.

But having said that, you have captured my question and thoughts correctly.

Fortunately there's a middle ground for most. We're back going to restaurants, playing golf, sailing, some shopping (with a mask) and socializing in small groups with distancing - or we'd be crazy(ier) by now. OTOH we're not ready to go to movies, theater, concerts, bars, hotels, traveling by air - not yet anyway. I'm sure there are some who need to avoid all contact with others, but I don't know anyone like that myself. As you say, there's a different "right answer" for each of us. This will pass eventually, though it's already taken longer than I thought it would in Mar-Apr - it's hard on all of us.

On the bright side, it's easier for an FI retiree than most - most of us don't have careers or businesses hanging in the balance.

 

[ocean view]

Us introverts defintely fare so much better in this pandemic than extroverts.

+1

 

[rodi]

My unhappiness about the covid restrictions eased dramatically when they reopened the local beaches for walking.

Locally we have no indoor dining, movies, indoor gyms or personal services. No biggy for me. Here in San Diego outdoor dining is year round. I miss movies and the gym... but not enough to go back anytime soon.

My MIL is 93 and more frail and senile every day. It is likely she will pass in the next few months. DH visited her last year and she didn't recognize him. Staff at her memory unit will assist with phone calls and the local BIL visits her daily and chats and sings to/with her through the window. He'll put my husband on the phone when he does this. (They share guardianship - local BIL is guardian of person, DH has the financial legal responsibility.) This brings up the conundrum of travel. DH will likely have to travel to Philadelphia for her funeral. He's too nervous to fly. Younger son will likely drive with him for the trip. In normal, pre-covid times we'd all fly for this.

I visit my step mom, virtually, once a week. Stepmom is a former Nursing Instructor and only retired from online teaching 4 years ago. She's very computer savvy and still pretty darn lucid. One of her daughters brings groceries to her assisted living community but they can't hug... 6 feet distance so a walker is used to transfer the groceries and they chat, wearing masks, and maintaining distance. I miss in person visits. Playing bridge was mentioned in a previous post. Stepmom has 3 different bridge groups made up of residents in her community. They wear masks - but they are in their own bubble. They are allowed to visit together... just not with outsiders.

As for big travel... I'd been planning on a Galapagos Island trip for fall 2021... That may have to wait several years or forever. If covid is here for the long haul we'll look into getting a small RV and travel in our own pod... I'm not going to risk dying or loss of health (strokes, heart issues, lung damage) just for a vacation.

An older friend of mine (she's 79 and one of my beach walking buddies) is trying to figure out how to visit her kids/grandkids/great grandkids. She's purchased a 'hazmat' suit for the plane trip to Illinois. She says she doesn't care if she looks ridiculous - she wants to see family.

 

[ivinsfan]

That is essentially what I’m asking. Thanks for restating. Although I don’t like the pull the plug analogy. It appears most folks on this board would wait basically forever.

PS, I also don’t like referring to those who would wait forever as paranoid. IMO, everyone has to make their own decisions through this. Don’t criticize mine, as I won’t criticize yours.

But having said that, you have captured my question and thoughts correctly.

That famous quote It's not paranoia if it's true I personally feel sometimes that I might be heading towards paranoia ..it's a fine line....

Sometimes I feel more paranoia after reading here, we definitely trend to the cautious side.

 

[MichaelB]

It appears most folks on this board would wait basically forever.

Not most folks on the board, just most who have posted in the thread.

That famous quote It's not paranoia if it's true I personally feel sometimes that I might be heading towards paranoia ..it's a fine line....

Sometimes I feel more paranoia after reading here, we definitely trend to the cautious side.

Paranoid is based on delusion. This is caution. Definitely not the same. Whether the caution is warranted or excessive may be subject to opinion, but COVID is an infectious disease and very much a reality.

 

[ivinsfan]

Not most folks on the board, just most who have posted in the thread.

Paranoid is based on delusion. This is caution. Definitely not the same. Whether the caution is warranted or excessive may be subject to opinion, but COVID is an infectious disease and very much a reality.

Agree on COVID for sure ..excessive caution might swing toward the paranoid scale, it kinds of depends on how you look at it. If I start thinking every person passing me in the grocery store might kill me (with COVID) for example.

Or I might use my Mom's old school term worrywart..

 

[audreyh1]

That is essentially what I’m asking. Thanks for restating. Although I don’t like the pull the plug analogy. It appears most folks on this board would wait basically forever.

PS, I also don’t like referring to those who would wait forever as paranoid. IMO, everyone has to make their own decisions through this. Don’t criticize mine, as I won’t criticize yours.

But having said that, you have captured my question and thoughts correctly.

At this point I’m not expecting COVID-19 to have us locked down for years. Maybe we have to still take some minor precautions for a while longer.

 

[Aerides]

My unhappiness about the covid restrictions eased dramatically when they reopened the local beaches for walking.

Yes, beaches, and parks for me. Then outdoor dining, and I have to say getting my hair fixed was worth it. Going ahead with getting my totally elective knee surgery that I'd been putting off, also worth it.

I'm good with those, but I do remember thinking when we were on full lockdown (only grocery stores), how long I would last. And age factors in, not just for risks but for how long is reasonably left. Are you gambling 10, 20, 30 or 40 years? I'm hoping for 40, so I should probably wait longest, but that also puts me in a lower risk bracket.

We are all welcome to our own calculus, but it's far from binary.

Oh, eta: I'm also hoping that real time, really available testing becomes a thing. Get a saliva test to get on a plane or come in my house. Take a quick test before I go visit Mom and Dad, that sort of thing - if we can all make real time decisions it will be a game changer.

 

[W2R]

I think it will be years before things return to normal in New Orleans, although I do not know.

Right now, the only changes Frank and I are experiencing compared with pre-pandemic life are

(1) not being able to go to businesses that are closed and not allowed to open (for example, Frank can't work at his "fun job" since bars are all closed right now and live music anywhere is forbidden); and

(2) wearing masks inside and outside.

(3) no more of the traditional hello/goodbye kisses that have always been customary here in New Orleans, due to social distancing.

We still go out to lunch every day; our restaurant isn't very busy at all.

We stopped going to the gym a couple of weeks ago, even though gyms are open here right now. Our reasons are a combination of COVID-fear/concern, plus laziness plus weather related sinus issues that make us feel like any excuse not to go, is good enough.

We are able to go bird-watching from our car, with closed windows, at the boat launch. This is something we love to do and couldn't do back in March because of mandates then.

I wonder what our usual Christmas Eve dinner, at a fancy restaurant with 40-50 of Frank's extended family, will be like this year. Maybe they will call it off and that would be so sad.

(Edited to remove a long and possibly contraversial paragraph about m*** wearing - - suffice it to say, that I will be so glad when they are no longer needed or mandated).

 

[GravitySucks]

It's Risk vs. Reward.
DD1 lives out of state and her husband is an ICU pulmonary doctor who's in contact with Covid-19 patients everyday. I've not seen her at all. Very High Risk / High Reward but she won't let me visit and the risk is too great. DD2 lives near and is a working hair dresser. I see her once a week but no hugs and kisses. High Risk / High Reward.
Travel, we just canceled an out of state to OC MD. as we see Restaurants closing due to out break. Risk of catch something at the beach or outdoor restaurants is probably low, but now outweighs Reward. Especially with the NY quarantine orders on return. We're looking at a Finger Lakes trip instead. Low Risk/High Reward.
DGF and her grandsons are a Medium Risk/High Reward so I see and play and hug them even though the boys go to daycare and their mom works.
Indoor restaurants, Taverns, etc. Risk outweighs Reward. My friends are back to trivia night at the pizza pub. They say it's pretty isolated by teams but these friends are younger and party in many different groups, so I'm out. We do get together outdoors for driveway beers but stay pretty far apart.

If things stay as they are I'll probably start traveling out of state by car in another 6 months. Might never fly again. Might eat in an indoor restaurant in 6 months too. Might never go into a crowded bar again [emoji3525]

 

[KarlH]

I am still going to work everyday, using mask and gloves in shared areas, which I see as risky. I spend most of my time alone in office (door closed, without mask), and feel my coworkers who spend time socializing with or without masks are putting us all at risk. The risk factor is pushing me closer to pulling the plug and FIREing myself everyday.

Outside of work, we have gone on walks, visited park district and outdoor state parks. We traveled to a low Covid destination (Duluth/North Shore), but rented a cottage with a kitchen and had three indoor restaurant meals while driving since the beginning of lockdowns. We have purchased carryout food and visited the grocery and hardware stores. I considered visiting the patio areas of the local brewery, but decided on purchasing carryout when I saw the maskless crowds. We have not considered any local outdoor dining because it seems generally risky. We have had limited socially distanced outdoor visits with a couple of neighbors.

Overall, I see this as the status quo for the time being. I am also not optimistic about the prospects of a vaccine in the near term. We have been working on vaccines for AIDS for a long time, and wishful thinking hasn't gotten us there after 30 years. I think that moving forward we may opt for more curbside pickup and less in store shopping for groceries. I can live without the destinations pretty much indefinitely.

 

[Gumby]

"To lose patience is to lose the battle." -- Mahatma Gandhi

Just as with investing, a rational and unemotional approach is likely to yield the best outcome. Decisions made simply because one is frustrated and impatient are likely to be poor ones.

 

[MuirWannabe]

"To lose patience is to lose the battle." -- Mahatma Gandhi



Just as with investing, a rational and unemotional approach is likely to yield the best outcome. Decisions made simply because one is frustrated and impatient are likely to be poor ones.

“Opportunities are like sunrises. If you wait too long, you miss them”.

It’s not about annoyance or lost patience in my thinking. It’s about lost opportunities. I’m RE and 58. I’ve got 10 years?? (who knows exactly), left to do adventures I’d dreamed about. My retirement biological clock is ticking. My parents life clock is quite literally ticking.

I’ve stated I’m willing to wait another 6ish+ months. That’s on top of the 5 months we’ve already done. I don’t think that’s impatience. And I don’t think it’s irrational. It might be emotional, but none of us are Spock. So overall, I reject your characterization.