Climate Change considerations on where to live?

[Aerides]

...In fact, the last 15-20 year period you mention has actually included the longest drought of major hurricanes landfalling in the continental US in history, 2005-2017.

Just so we're clear, are you trying to say that your research has led you to the opinion that the threat of hurricanes, and therefore their impact to ones' geographical choices, should be of no more a consideration than it was decades ago?

 

[jebmke]

I live on a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay. We retired here in 2007. Some areas you could go to in a car around here no longer exist. Others will no longer exist as time goes by but are experiencing more water. When we were looking for a house we always asked where the water came for hurricane Isabel. Everyone around here knew exactly where it came. If they hemmed and hawed we knew it wasn't good.

 

[CardsFan]

Just so we're clear, are you trying to say that your research has led you to the opinion that the threat of hurricanes, and therefore their impact to ones' geographical choices, should be of no more a consideration than it was decades ago?

Facts are not opinions.

From NOAA: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/Atlantic_Storm_Count.jpg

If you want to cherry pick a decade, you can find one somewhat lower than today.

BTW, this is for ALL storms in the ATLANTIC. Many/most did not make landfall.

 

[Car-Guy]

Wondering if/how folks are taking climate change implications into account when planning where to live in retirement.

Doesn't make my planning list.... Not even a remote consideration.

 

[Walt34]

For family reasons we ended up in northern West Virginia, and may move to a CCRC in southeastern PA. The only downside to both locations is winter, and if global warming happens, hooray for that because neither one of us likes cold weather. I'll hang on to the snow blower though, just in case. Any hurricanes are tired out by the time they get to us, and the only flooding to happen involves local streams and is clear in a day or two. So all in all, either one is not a bad choice. Those who want four seasons like it too.

 

[Dtail]

We still plan on retiring to Arizona. I haven’t noticed much climate change in the Phoenix area in the 18 years that we have been going there. It’s usually hot in the summer, nice in winter.

But I’d like to retire somewhere north of Phoenix where summers are cooler. Maybe northern Arizona is a little warmer than it used to be, but that’s ok.

But in Illinois, I think that our winters are not as brutal as they used to be, making the need to get out not as desperate as it used to be.

Perhaps Flagstaff?

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

To me, the downside of living in the Northern Tier is not the cold but the short days. Dusk at 4:45 is pretty depressing.

 

[Dtail]

We would recommend a concrete block home vs stick, in an "X" flood zone. Otherwise insurance could be prohibitive. All homes must have an elevation certificate if close to the beach, otherwise insurance companies will not write policies.

+1 plus the house should have the latest hurricane build codes which I believe is 2006 and later if they change their mind and go for resale.

 

[MRG]

One thing folks should consider is your tolerance for any kind of disaster. Have you ever been through a flood? Major disasters are different from watching the news. I remember my late in-laws.

They built a home on Marathon Key, a beautiful place halfway down the Florida Keys. You could look out over the Gulf and Atlantic from the same room. I asked about hurricanes and flooding, "no problem they turn all the lanes northbound to evacuate". Then Andrew threatened and they couldn't get out of their neighborhood! BIL flew his plane in and was the last plane out of Marathon before they shut down the airport. While there was no damage they put the place on the market a few weeks later.

 

[Montecfo]

One thing folks should consider is your tolerance for any kind of disaster. Have you ever been through a flood? Major disasters are different from watching the news. I remember my late in-laws.

They built a home on Marathon Key, a beautiful place halfway down the Florida Keys. You could look out over the Gulf and Atlantic from the same room. I asked about hurricanes and flooding, "no problem they turn all the lanes northbound to evacuate". Then Andrew threatened and they couldn't get out of their neighborhood! BIL flew his plane in and was the last plane out of Marathon before they shut down the airport. While there was no damage they put the place on the market a few weeks later.

That is certainly a cautionary story. Thanks for sharing it.

 

[sengsational]

Of course the weather in the last 20 years would influence my choice of where to retire, but I'm not sure any kind of projection would cause me to change my mind. It seems that whether you experience a negative consequence is highly stochastic. The same would be true if the climate "got worse", "got better", or stayed the same. You drive 1000 miles on a bumpy road or 1000 miles on a slightly more bumpy road. No matter which you choose, your butt will be sore when you get there.

 

[Bamaman]

I'm good in the Mid South. By the time things deteriorate to an unbearable level, I'll be 120 years old.

We still love the Ultra Low COL here. We're 400 miles from the coast so this week's Hurricane will just be a rain storm when it arrives. It's the first hurricane to hit the state since 2004--not bad.

 

[savory]

As I get older and noticing how things are changing, the best solution is to continue with my plans but not buying a house. Not having a house allows for more options and minimum stuff to worry about.

This is were we are at. No house and not much stuff. We have thought about our next move if our extended family living arrangement comes to an end. Climate change is low on the list. General climate and community is very high. And, I know for the area we would move, we would try to find a place that is less likely to be destroyed by floods, winds, fire etc. even if we want to be closer to some nice feature in the community. We would forego the lake house for example.

 

[harllee]

At one time I thought of buying a place on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. It is a beautiful place and low cost of living. But I looked at the sea rise and hurricane projections and decided not to--instead I bought n the NC mountains. I am glad I did. There is only one road on the Outer Banks-- Highway 12-- and it is now frequently under water.

 

[mountainsoft]

I used to think we were golden here in SW Washington State. We have a fairly mild climate year round, enough rain to keep things green, no threats of hurricanes, and living at 1500 feet we have no worries about sea level rise or flooding.

Then the climate started changing... Summers seem to be getting drier. Less snow in the winter means more drought in the summer. Forest fires seem to be stronger and more frequent each year. Oh, and there was that volcano that erupted. We've even had a few tornado's in recent years. Let's not forget the threat of earthquakes.

Honestly, I think every area on the planet has it's own issues, and climate change will only make them worse. You can run, but there's nowhere to hide!

 

[Ronstar]

Perhaps Flagstaff?

Flagstaff would be perfect for me. Or Prescott. Or Payson.

But these are too far out according to DW. She has to be near shopping. Big shopping.

 

[donheff]

The threat of high water is a bit of a crap shoot. It looks like most of us will die off before things get bad enough to drive us from our homes but who knows. Eventually, coastal areas are going to be pushed back and some unlucky folks are going to lose their property. I have seen whole blocks disappear on the Outer Banks so it happens. But with reasonable choice of location the likihood of such problems in the near term are probably low. If I really wanted to live on the coast I would still take the chance but I like the hill I'm on.

On the other hand, I recently read a report that a critical ice dam in Antarctica was threatened and could loosen up a large land based ice mass. To get a visceral fell for what a sudden collapse down there could do read New York 2040. Of course that threat may be as unlikely as the Cumbre Vieja falling into the sea and washing out the entire east coast. Or a sudden pandemic disrupting all of our lives.

 

[audreyh1]

We don’t live right on the coast for several reasons. Hurricanes with their high winds and storm surge are one reason, humidity another. On the west coast it would be tsunamis keeping us away from the beachfront. So sea levels rising (inevitable with all those melting ice caps and icebergs) isn’t a concern in our lifetime.

We are 80 miles away from a very nice beach at home, so we can visit for a day or several when we want to and the weather is nice.

 

[Gumby]

We don’t live right on the coast for several reasons. Hurricanes with their high winds and storm surge are one reason, humidity another. On the west coast it would be tsunamis keeping us away from the beachfront. So sea levels rising (inevitable with all those melting ice caps and icebergs) isn’t a concern in our lifetime.

We are 80 miles away from a very nice beach at home, so we can visit for a day or several when we want to and the weather is nice.

I actually have given some thought to this and looked at this interactive map of potential sea level rise. https://coastal.climatecentral.org/...urn_level=return_level_10&slr_model=kopp_2017

Although we are on the water, our house is 25 feet above sea level (they didn't stupidly build right on the beach back in the old days). Even inputting the worst case assumptions regarding the rate of rise and the lack of mitigation, we will not need to worry about being inundated for the rest of our lives. There are one or two very low lying roads in town that will be inundated unless a causeway is built, but that will be a minor inconvenience. We have abundant rainfall, rivers, lakes and ponds, so water for drinking and agriculture should not be a problem. We may get a longer growing season, which would be fine by me.

I guess the major downside is the potential for stronger cyclonic storms, although we have historically experienced very few and they have usually petered out by the time they get this far north. A secondary downside is that I probably will need to install central air in the next few years.

In sum, we're still going to stay right here.

 

[RAE]

Mods - just out of curiosity, why is it okay to discuss climate change in this thread (it is even in the title of the thread), but not in other threads (like the West Coast fire thread)? When the rules are inconsistent like this, it's a little hard to figure out what topics are okay to discuss, and which are not.

 

[VanWinkle]

I actually have given some thought to this and looked at this interactive map of potential sea level rise. https://coastal.climatecentral.org/...urn_level=return_level_10&slr_model=kopp_2017

Although we are on the water, our house is 25 feet above sea level (they didn't stupidly build right on the beach back in the old days). Even inputting the worst case assumptions regarding the rate of rise and the lack of mitigation, we will not need to worry about being inundated for the rest of our lives. There are one or two very low lying roads in town that will be inundated unless a causeway is built, but that will be a minor inconvenience. We have abundant rainfall, rivers, lakes and ponds, so water for drinking and agriculture should not be a problem. We may get a longer growing season, which would be fine by me.

I guess the major downside is the potential for stronger cyclonic storms, although we have historically experienced very few and they have usually petered out by the time they get this far north. A secondary downside is that I probably will need to install central air in the next few years.

In sum, we're still going to stay right here.

Congrats on an optimistic attitude!!

 

[Montecfo]

I think most folks think about weather or climate and not climate change. I personally would not own a home on a continental US beach because of insurance cost and storm risk. I know that hurricanes hit the coast and this is nothing new. The historical record shows that major hurricanes can hit at any time but there can be long stretches with no such storm landings. It is just not something I want to be thinking about.

I could see owning closer to the shore. Could also see renting there for a few months or a year. But otherwise probably not.

I also would tend to avoid locating in an area where governments are unable or unwilling to manage forests to limit fire risk. Again life is to short to spend it dealing with such wackiness. Better to just visit in my opinion.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I think most folks think about weather or climate and not climate change. I personally would not own a home on a continental US beach because of insurance cost and storm risk. I know that hurricanes hit the coast and this is nothing new. The historical record shows that major hurricanes can hit at any time but there can be long stretches with no such storm landings. It is just not something I want to be thinking about.

I could see owning closer to the shore. Could also see renting there for a few months or a year. But otherwise probably not.

I also would tend to avoid locating in an area where governments are unable or unwilling to manage forests to limit fire risk. Again life is to short to spend it dealing with such wackiness. Better to just visit in my opinion.

It is all personal choice, we prefer to have an excellent quality of life, than living in a LCOL area with cold winters and more dreary days than not.

The minor inconvenience of the odd storm is something we put up with for the best QOL we have ever experienced during our lifetime, and some of the best access to top quality healthcare in the country. And we have lived in some of the best places in the country as well as overseas. And, we are certainly not rich by any sense of the imagination. It so happens to be now we are retired and that just makes things better. The only change we would make is to move to Hawaii, but the cost of homes ..... small homes at that, puts me off.

NOW saying that, wild horses could not convince me to live anywhere on the northern Gulf coast down to Padre Island. That is a disaster waiting to happen. Same for the upper east coast from say .... Charleston up to the Jersey shore. Same for Tornado alley and flyover country. They get way worse weather than we do tucked away in the Florida NE Elbow.

BTW, that is what insurance is for anyway.

 

[sengsational]

I think most folks think about weather or climate and not climate change.

That's true and good... staying away from the third rail.

Again life is to short to spend it dealing with such wackiness. Better to just visit in my opinion.

I wouldn't like to have my possessions destroyed, but I don't mind working through a weather upset. As a kid in south Florida in the 70's, I was so disappointed we never got a hurricane... never had to evacuate. But I've been back to help family in storm aftermath, and it's something I like to do. A noble battle against mother nature.

 

[Montecfo]

It is all personal choice, we prefer to have an excellent quality of life, than living in a LCOL area with cold winters and more dreary days than not.

Agree!

NOW saying that, wild horses could not convince me to live anywhere on the northern Gulf coast down to Padre Island. That is a disaster waiting to happen. Same for the upper east coast from say .... Charleston up to the Jersey shore. Same for Tornado alley and flyover country. They get way worse weather than we do tucked away in the Florida NE Elbow.

BTW, that is what insurance is for anyway.

Can you elaborate on your issues with those locations? Well not flyover and tornado alley (though I note there are good places to live there).