I have been discussing travel in 2021 with a few good friends. Of course, we all hope for a vaccine in early 2021 that is 95%+ effective, lasts for several years, and is readily available to most of us in the world. That would obviously open up traveling quite a bit.
Or, if Covid is raging through the world with little to stop it, countries have closed their boarders again, and travel is greatly restricted, then the decision to stay close to home is probably forced upon us.
But.....
Lately, our conversations been about what we will do if the vaccine is 50% to 70% effective. Is that good enough to hop back onto a plane and fly to Lower Slobovia? Would we fill safe enough to eat inside a local restaurant on a cold rainy day in England? How about getting in line to visit the Louvre in Paris? Or the coliseum in Rome? Or taking the elevator to the top of the Empire State Building? Visiting the Smithsonian in D.C.? Can the National Park Visitor Centers reopen?
When is 'safe enough' good enough? How much risk reduction do we need? What other precautions would still be needed and how would they impact our decision on when and where to travel? How will less risk, change our plans. Or will it?