Covid will it ever end??

[Aerides]

23 years ago I had a partially collapsed lung resulting from a surgical error during gall bladder removal. I had to be intubated during surgery and spent 24 hours on a ventilator, not sedated beyond pain meds. I can firmly say I do not recommend it. No question the worst day of my life.

I rehabbed for months to where doctors agreed it my lung was back to 95%. Still, it knocked me out and I was a good year getting back to prior cardio abilities. In the decades since, I've maintained a lot of activity - I run, I lift weights, I'm quite active.

23 years later I still get the odd little symptom from that lung. I don't feel "tougher" from the experience. Surviving covid - if you had a case to have actual symptoms - does not for one second make me think you come out stronger the other side.

 

[DayDreaming]

...
I would expect flu season to be milder than usual since we are distancing and wearing masks due to Covid. Not that it is not a concern but Covid precautions will tend to have similar protective effects for flu, from everything I have read.

Flu last year was visually non existent in the US and globally according to the CDC for these same reasons.

On the other hand, flu season could be worse this year because we had virtually no exposure to it last year - who knows?!
https://www.livescience.com/flu-season-comeback-covid-2021-2022.html

 

[mpeirce]

Of course it won’t end. But it will fade into the background noise with all the other diseases we humans deal with.

Learn to deal with your fears. Take reasonable precautions. Get on with living life.

 

[Luvtoride]

I stayed “well” for 19 months during all the high risk times and exposures to Covid, including being in Fort Lauderdale during Spring Break week when the Covid outbreak started in March of 2020.
I saw my granddaughters who go to school in NYC, this past Saturday. The day after seeing them, they got sick and both tested positive for Covid. 3 days later I started feeling sick and I tested positive.
Fortunately, I’m vaccinated and not feeling too badly (flu like aches and low grade fever). I’m getting the monoclonal antibodies infusion later today.
My point is that no matter how “careful” we are with the people around us,let alone with increasing crowds of strangers, Covid will continue to be a threat and concern to all of us, vaccinated or not.

 

[Chuckanut]

30 or 40 years ago you'd see these 90 year old codgers who just wouldn't die. Tough old people. My belief is that the 1918 pandemic killed off the weaklings and these folk were just the survivors who made it through. The weaklings who would've died in their 60s or 70s (1960s - 1980s) never made it past 1918.

In a way 1918 made us stronger as a species. Everyone alive now had an ancestor who made it through that filter.
Most of us of European descent carry a gene of survival from the Black Plague.

I would toss in the Great Depression, WW1 and even WW2. One had to be very hardy to survive all that. I look at my grandparents time on this planet and even my parents, and I realize how lucky my generation has been.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

If you were young in 1918 and survived, you were one tough bird and went on (like my grandad who drank, smoked, didnt' take care of himself and died at 93) and became one of those old people 'you can't kill' I mentioned.

But, under your assumptions, wouldn't your grandad have been a "tough old bird" who lived to 93 even if there had never been a 1918 pandemic?

 

[Out of Steam]

Our region in Canada has fared relatively well, about 200,000 population, 1834 cases and 6 deaths.

When compared to the US, this is quite an amazing figure. In the US, any region where the case count is under 10% of the population is doing quite well. Under 8% is exceptional.

 

[Out of Steam]

Being on immunosuppressant medication, and married to someone with similar limitations, I'm beginning to accept that I will need to take substantial precautions against COVID permanently.

There are several things that I've likely done for the last time, among them attending a sporting event or concert in a crowded indoor venue, or riding public transit during busy hours.

More important seem to be the things I will do occasionally, but will have to limit. Among those are flying, mainly due to airport-related exposures rather than on-plane risks, and eating restaurant meals indoors. I'm already willing to do the second of those during uncrowded hours about once a month. My wife is more cautious than that.

The risk calculations required every day are tiring, to say the least, and it often seems easier to just rule things out.

 

[marko]

But, under your assumptions, wouldn't your grandad have been a "tough old bird" who lived to 93 even if there had never been a 1918 pandemic?

Exactly. But all four of my grandparents got the Spanish flu as young people and survived. We'll never know who didn't survive and who they might have married.

My point was that in 1917 there were weaklings and strong people regardless their age. Just like today. My grandparents were just naturally amoung the strong. The weaklings didn't make it to 1919 and what was left were the strong. 1918 was a filter of sorts where those who made it through lived as a population of fewer weak people through the next 70+ years

The flu perhaps made us stronger as a species but not directly as individuals. As individuals, they were survivors because they were already naturally stronger not because the flu made them so. As a species we got stronger because they lived long enough to pass along those genes.

 

[Koolau]

I would toss in the Great Depression, WW1 and even WW2. One had to be very hardy to survive all that. I look at my grandparents time on this planet and even my parents, and I realize how lucky my generation has been.

We have been especially blessed with interventions for especially CAD (coronary artery disease). Also SOME cancers are now curable/treatable. Perhaps the biggest 20th century miracle were the antibiotics. We've misused them and are paying the price, but they saved millions of lives over the past 80+ years.

Yeah, medically, we've had it great. Still, nature IS trying to kill us and occasionally finds a way such as Covid. YMMV

 

[pacergal]

I stayed “well” for 19 months during all the high risk times and exposures to Covid, including being in Fort Lauderdale during Spring Break week when the Covid outbreak started in March of 2020.
I saw my granddaughters who go to school in NYC, this past Saturday. The day after seeing them, they got sick and both tested positive for Covid. 3 days later I started feeling sick and I tested positive.
Fortunately, I’m vaccinated and not feeling too badly (flu like aches and low grade fever). I’m getting the monoclonal antibodies infusion later today.
My point is that no matter how “careful” we are with the people around us,let alone with increasing crowds of strangers, Covid will continue to be a threat and concern to all of us, vaccinated or not.

Hope you continue to improve.

Now I am reading from BBC news about a new variant mutation of the Delta found in UK, that they are just beginning to study, the AY.4.2 "delta plus".
Yes, Covid will be with us for a long while, I believe.

 

[Montecfo]

<emphasis mine>

NJ has a high death rate due to its very high infection rate, particularly in nursing homes, at the beginning of the pandemic. Seniors, as we know, are most likely to die from Covid, and effective treatments had not been developed yet. So deaths spiked in NJ at the very beginning of the pandemic. You should not be blaming state health officials.

Now, NJ has a high vaccination rate and one of the lowest per capita death rates in the nation, so perhaps you should be praising state health officials there.

My point was that AFTER all the state has been through, (and given the low per capita death rate you note) access to testing should not require a hospital or ER visit.

Hard to debate that I think.

 

[disneysteve]

My point was that AFTER all the state has been through, (and given the low per capita death rate you note) access to testing should not require a hospital or ER visit.

Hard to debate that I think.

It doesn’t require a hospital or ER visit. Pharmacies do it. Urgent cares do it. Many primary care offices do it. And there’s home tests available.

We do 3 dozen or more COVID tests a day just at my urgent care and we have 7 locations plus telehealth so all together we’re probably testing a few hundred people a day.

 

[Montecfo]

It doesn’t require a hospital or ER visit. Pharmacies do it. Urgent cares do it. Many primary care offices do it. And there’s home tests available.

We do 3 dozen or more COVID tests a day just at my urgent care and we have 7 locations plus telehealth so all together we’re probably testing a few hundred people a day.

Yes I think I told you that a few dozen posts ago.

I think we have now come full circle.

 

[Sunset]

^^^^^ I think the point is, even with testing all over the place, people STILL go to the hospital to get tested.
There are many reasons why:
Because it's free if you don't have health care, it's known it is done there, if you test positive you can ask for meds but if you get tested at a booth somewhere, they can't give any meds.
Hospitals are on good transit routes, so can take a bus to get to it.

People without insurance know hospitals have to treat emergency patients for free, so go there.

 

[SecondAttempt]

Didn't the 1918 Pandemic eventually burn itself out after a couple of years of what we're seeing now with Covid 19 (ups and downs in infection/death rates)? And, of course, they didn't have vaccines available.

It did, probably, but it took closer to 3 years.

Covid has already killed more people in the US as a point of reference

Some would argue that we still have the 1918 pandemic with us in the "need" for annual flu shots and are predicting covid 19 will be with us in the same way. It is believed the average person got a coronavirus infection every few years so it has always been common. We just got lucky last year with a nasty one!

 

[disneysteve]

I saw this study yesterday estimating that unvaccinated folks may catch COVID every 16 months or so.

https://apple.news/Asvk-OsWaQBygx7V4n7a1ww

Add in the fact that vaccinated people can still get infected. And if people don’t keep up with booster doses they lose protection over time.

All adds up to COVID being with us long term.

 

[mpeirce]

I
Covid has already killed more people in the US as a point of reference

You really need to look at the numbers based on population.

The US population in 1918 was around 109 million. Deaths from that flu was roughly 675,000.

Our current population is just over 330 million. Deaths from Covid are just over
700,000.

If you adjust the Spanish flu numbers for today’s population, you get over 2 million.

Obviously 700,000 deaths are terrible, but the Spanish flu was much worse than what we’ve experience with Covid.

 

[Chuckanut]

All adds up to COVID being with us long term.

+1

I expect that by the end of 2022 we will have a much better feel for Covid itself, the various vaccines and the need for occasional boosters. We are already seeing that the vaccines are multiple dose treatments - three in the case of older people like myself. Will we need a forth dose in 2022 or later? I would not be surprised if we did. If nothing else better vaccines will be developed just as they were for Shingles.

Given that Covid was virtually unknown two years ago. I am very impressed with what has been accomplished to date.

 

[Luvtoride]

It doesn’t require a hospital or ER visit. Pharmacies do it. Urgent cares do it. Many primary care offices do it. And there’s home tests available.

We do 3 dozen or more COVID tests a day just at my urgent care and we have 7 locations plus telehealth so all together we’re probably testing a few hundred people a day.

Yes, testing is readily available in NJ at any number of locations including pop up drive in testing centers. It is amazing to me how busy all of these COVID testing centers are now despite the thought that the” worst is behind us”.
COVID is not going away anytime soon.

3 more members of our immediate family just tested positive today and yesterday. Not surprising as we were together before we knew any of us were positive or showing symptoms. Be careful and stay well, all.

 

[disneysteve]

It is amazing to me how busy all of these COVID testing centers are now despite the thought that the” worst is behind us”.

This really speaks to what I said earlier. Pre-COVID, if someone had a "cold" they'd take some DayQuil and go about their business. No can do today. If you wake up with a headache and cough, a sore throat, maybe a low grade fever, you need to get a COVID test. There's a good chance your job or school requires it and even if they don't, who wants to be that guy who powers through and goes in and infects the whole office with COVID? The volume of COVID tests is higher than ever for us.


Then there's also all the people getting tests pre and post travel and other activities.

3 more members of our immediate family just tested positive today and yesterday. Not surprising as we were together before we knew any of us were positive or showing symptoms. Be careful and stay well, all.

I hope everyone has a mild case and no long term complications. This is another example of why COVID isn't going away. People have largely stopped social distancing and stopped wearing masks in many settings (like family gatherings) so the virus is able to spread freely again. Every single day I'm seeing cases at work in both vaccinated and unvaccinated patients and often with a story of catching it from family members. At least so far, we really don't see any sign of it slowing down.

 

[Chuckanut]

Here is one academic's take on where we are in regards to Covid-19. He thinks we (the wealthier countries) are at the end of the beginning. I found it interesting. It is, of course, only one person's opinion.

https://unlocked.fm/episodes/is-thi...yale-universitys-nicholas-christakis-t406Om5D

Dr. Christakis compares CV-19 to a sunami that sweeps onshore causing a lot of destruction. After it recedes we need to clean up the mess. For example, he estimates that for every person who dies from CV19 there are five people who will have negative after effects that we will have to deal with. We need to clean up that mess. All this assume we don't get a strain of the virus that is more deadly and/or evades our vaccines.

 

[audreyh1]

Covid orphans. CDC estimates that 140,000 children lost a primary or secondary caregiver due to Covid. That’s a big mess right there! https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p1007-covid-19-orphaned-children.html

 

[Koolau]

You really need to look at the numbers based on population.

The US population in 1918 was around 109 million. Deaths from that flu was roughly 675,000.

Our current population is just over 330 million. Deaths from Covid are just over
700,000.

If you adjust the Spanish flu numbers for today’s population, you get over 2 million.

Obviously 700,000 deaths are terrible, but the Spanish flu was much worse than what we’ve experience with Covid.

I recall my mom showing me around the cemetery where all her relatives were buried. She could point out grave after grave (friends and neighbors as well as relatives) who had died due to the 1918 pandemic. She remarked that she should have been there as well!

So far, I know personally 2 people who have died of Covid. Not a scientific study, but the 1918 Pandemic seems more deadly (so far) though we're not finished with Covid. Way too speculative on my part at this point so YMMV.

 

[RetiredHappy]

In July of this year, when several of the people caught COVID at a dinner event at our club, most of them simply went to CVS to get tested after they developed mild cold symptoms. None of us went to a clinic to get tested. Unfortunately the 47-year old singer who was unvaccinated got tested but did not seek medical help and died after 9 days from the event. My point is that people in our local community do not go see a doctor simply to get tested. In fact, we got on the phone with our PCP and after we could not get immediate test results from CVS, he asked us to go to Walmart to pick up home test kits. I have a dozen home test kits in my medicine cabinet currently, with an expiration of Dec 31st. I have been offering them up to friends who want to get tested.