New heavily mutated variant B.1.1.529 in South Africa raises concern

[OldShooter]

... Researchers in South Africa have identified the most heavily mutated Covid variant discovered so far. How bad is it? Too soon to know ...

For me, this is not actionable information. So I have not bothered to read the stories.

 

[natetheb]

I’ve wondered this too. There’s an article in WSJ today about the new variant that has this statement: “If needed, a BioNTech spokeswoman said, the companies could produce a new vaccine adjusted to any variant within six weeks and ship initial batches within 100 days.”

Why hasn’t this already been done with known variants?

From my understanding, the vaccination (In my opinion probably should be called a "Pre-Treatment" now) was about 80% effective at stopping Delta variant infection and nearly 100% effective at survive-ability if infected. Since the ultimate goal of any medical treatment is life saving and the "Vaccine" has shown extremely good results of life saving from (at this current time) all Covid variants, there isn't really a good reason to manufacture a new "Vaccine."



From my understanding, the Delta Variant had 2 major mutations whereas this "Nu" variant has 10. These could be significant or mild mutations, I believe the full answers will not be known for a while. If this new variant is as infectious as the Delta and has mutations that significantly reduce the efficacy of the "Vaccine" from a survive-ability stand point, I could see a new one being manufactured.

 

[audreyh1]

Mutations will keep arriving with the lack of a cohesive nationwide effort to take the vaccines available.
Our investments will suffer too.

It’s not even nationwide. It’s the entire globe. No matter how careful any one country or continent is, mutations can develop and spread from any nation across the globe.

 

[audreyh1]

I imagine stuff like this will surely throw a wrench into people's travel plans...

Well we are just hoping to get through some key early January family obligations that have been put off for a year and a half, before this thing is a local threat.

 

[JoeWras]

It’s not even nationwide. It’s the entire globe. No matter how careful any one country or continent is, mutations can develop and spread from any nation across the globe.

Yes, this is a world problem. Even if everyone in the world who wanted a vaccine could get one, distribution and manufacturing take enough time that the virus will virus.

Oh, and then there is the fact that animals can carry the virus. I'm looking at you, deer!

 

[disneysteve]

From my understanding, the vaccination (In my opinion probably should be called a "Pre-Treatment" now) was about 80% effective at stopping Delta variant infection and nearly 100% effective at survive-ability if infected. Since the ultimate goal of any medical treatment is life saving and the "Vaccine" has shown extremely good results of life saving from (at this current time) all Covid variants, there isn't really a good reason to manufacture a new "Vaccine."

There's also a logistical issue to consider. My wife and I (and my mother) have already gotten 3 doses of the existing vaccine. If they come out in a month with an updated version, do we need to get that too? And what if there's yet another a couple months after that? People aren't going to get a shot every few months. Once a year is fine, like a flu shot, but that's probably about it.


I think ultimately that's what will happen. There will be an annual booster that incorporates new strains that have come along since the last round.

 

[Gumby]

The number of mutations alone doesn't really tell us anything. Some mutations make viruses more contagious and/or more lethal, some make them less contagious and/or less lethal. Some mutations do nothing at all. Not time to panic yet (although the market appears to be doing so today).

 

[tulak]

I think ultimately that's what will happen. There will be an annual booster that incorporates new strains that have come along since the last round.

I think that’s what will eventually happen too. We’ll never keep up with all the variants, but if there is a predominant variant, such as delta, why not tweak the vaccine to incorporate protection against those strains?

Complete conjecture on my part, but I would image this would also help us keep up with the virus somewhat. Odds are new variants are going to be closer in relation to a current variant (delta) than an earlier variant (alpha). A booster based on the latest variants might be more protective.

But nobody asks my opinion, so I’ll just take what I can get. [emoji4]

 

[audreyh1]

As mentioned, it is what it is. Sooner or later the laws of natural selection will win over. There will be fewer unvaccinated for whatever reasons, and the vaccinated % will rise to beyond herd immunity.

That assumes current vaccines are effective. The concern is that they are not. Great unknown so the market doesn’t like it.

Markets are very thinly traded today, so volatility is easily higher.

 

[audreyh1]

The timing is right. I had about three weeks of feeling comfortable in public after becoming fully vaccinated then the delta hit. I had my booster about three weeks ago, and it will probably be a few weeks before this new strain becomes a reality here. This is getting old...

+100

You get to take a breath, finally, then suddenly - oops here comes a new hazard!

 

[jollystomper]

The number of mutations alone doesn't really tell us anything. Some mutations make viruses more contagious and/or more lethal, some make them less contagious and/or less lethal. Some mutations do nothing at all. Not time to panic yet (although the market appears to be doing so today).

I agree. I prefer to wait and be patient to let things play out until more information is known. Caution but not panic, there is a difference.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

That assumes current vaccines are effective. The concern is that they are not. Great unknown so the market doesn’t like it.

One could assume the unhealthy, obese, compromised, malnourished and unvaccinated would be more susceptible to major infection as was proven with the other variants. But one never knows, we can only wish that the precautions we take as individuals will be effective. YMMV.

 

[Exchme]

One thing I fail to understand is why Pfizer, Moderna and J&J don’t keep up with the strains in their vaccines. It seems putting the mRNA for the delta variant and this new variant would be as simple as the original vaccine. But they keep offering the original vaccine, which may not work against this new strain.

It seems like this has similarities to the flu vaccine, needing to tweak the vaccine each year. The FDA shouldn’t need to reapprove the same vaccine, made the same way, except for a slight shift in the mRNA molecule.

What am I missing?

There's no way to know what nature's next trick will be until it emerges, so we will always be behind (testing what might emerge next is the gain-of-function testing that some blame for this in the first place). Up to now, from what I read, researchers believed that the original vaccine design would work pretty well. I think it's just a worry that the Nu variant really evades the vaccines, I don't know what's proven.

I agree that the first time, mRNA was a novel platform and safety was a big concern. For most people, the vaccine seems to be much safer than the risk of the virus, so hopefully subsequent use authorizations will be faster than the first time.

As the world is more interconnected than ever, new diseases have the ability to spread further and faster than ever before, but for the first time in history, we have the ability to rapidly adapt and catch up. In the long run, I will bet on humanity, just getting frustrating that each time we beat back one wave of the virus, another emerges.

 

[marko]

IMO, there's a huge difference between having Covid with no symptoms, Covid with mild symptoms, Covid with severe symptoms, Covid requiring hospitalization and dying from Covid.

Early reports are that the SA variant is generally asymptomatic but yes, it's early.

I just worry that with easier, faster testing, everyone automatically assumes that a rise in "cases" means that "we're all gonna die".

For many, it's a bad case of the flu. And yes, 6 members of my family had Covid; a bad headache was the main complaint. A friend did die but while originally published as Covid in his obit turned out to be cardiac arrest while testing positive for asymptomatic Covid.

Despite the media frenzy, I'd like to wait and see what the data shows in the next week or two before stocking up on TP!

 

[harllee]

What will the scientists do to determine if the current vaccine is effective against the new strain (I think it is named Omicron)?

 

[Freedom56]

It depends on the canton and region--if I recall you are in Romandie, yes? Here in Ticino (Italian speaking) everyone is masked up on public transit, including buses and trains; you will be asked either put on a mask or be escorted off. The federal government announced this week that they are not taking further measures as yet, preferring to allow the cantons to get things right. If not, they will act.

-BB

Yes we are in Vaud (Lausanne) now. My MIL who is now 86 just underwent surgery last week and we visited her everyday at the CHUV hospital in Lausanne. We brought her home today. They enforce masks in the hospital and you need your COVID certificate to enter. They don't allow cloth masks and provide 3 layer surgical masks to anyone who needs it. Today while I drove our car in Lausanne, we stopped at a red light next to a bus and noticed that the bus driver was unmasked as well as many passengers. I'll snap some photos the next time.

As for entry into Switzerland, they removed the passport control in Geneva for flight arriving from the EU zone. This was not the case back in 2019 and prior. Our connecting flight to Geneva was from CDG. Nobody checked our vaccination status, entry forms, or COVID certificate status when we landed in Paris and transited to our gate for the flight to Geneva where there was no document control either. If this is the new process, I wouldn't worry too much. Mind you you really can't do too much other than walk outside on the streets without the COVID certificate.

 

[REWahoo]

...the new strain (I think it is named Omicron)?

Yes, it is official:

The World Health Organization announced Friday that it has designated the newly identified coronavirus variant, B.1.1.529, as a variant of concern, named Omicron.

 

[Sojourner]

One thing I fail to understand is why Pfizer, Moderna and J&J don’t keep up with the strains in their vaccines. It seems putting the mRNA for the delta variant and this new variant would be as simple as the original vaccine. But they keep offering the original vaccine, which may not work against this new strain.

It seems like this has similarities to the flu vaccine, needing to tweak the vaccine each year. The FDA shouldn’t need to reapprove the same vaccine, made the same way, except for a slight shift in the mRNA molecule.

What am I missing?

I remember reading earlier this year that Pfizer and Moderna did, in fact, create vaccines for both the alpha and delta strains of the virus. They did this within a matter of weeks after those strains had been sequenced. But, AFAIK, this is where the process stopped. I think if the current vaccines had not proven effective against alpha and delta, then they would have proceeded to Stage 1 trials, just as they'll do (quite rapidly, one would hope) if omicron turns out to be substantially vaccine-resistant.

The principles of natural selection would suggest that the only way omicron will gain a foothold "in the wild" is if it outcompetes the very, very infectious delta strain. Delta has absolutely trounced every other variant so far. For omicron to become a major public health concern, it would have to be even more infectious than delta. Hopefully, that isn't the case.

 

[Gumby]

BioNTech said it's testing the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with Pfizer against the new variant that appears to have emerged in southern Africa, and that it would know in two weeks whether the vaccine works against the variant, the Financial Times first reported.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biontech-says-know-2-weeks-134826978.html

 

[ShokWaveRider]

I do not know why "they" do not name these things in a way the average Joe & Martha can understand.

Something like: Very Nasty Disease, Bad Stuff that can kill you, - 1 - 2 & 3 etc. LOL.

 

[USGrant1962]

I do not know why "they" do not name these things in a way the average Joe & Martha can understand.

Something like: Very Nasty Disease, Bad Stuff that can kill you, - 1 - 2 & 3 etc. LOL.

They used to as late as a year-and-a-half ago, but PC took over.

 

[Montecfo]

+100

You get to take a breath, finally, then suddenly - oops here comes a new hazard!

Fortunately we all know how to stay safe.

 

[tmm99]

I remember reading earlier this year that Pfizer and Moderna did, in fact, create vaccines for both the alpha and delta strains of the virus. They did this within a matter of weeks after those strains had been sequenced. But, AFAIK, this is where the process stopped. I think if the current vaccines had not proven effective against alpha and delta, then they would have proceeded to Stage 1 trials, just as they'll do (quite rapidly, one would hope) if omicron turns out to be substantially vaccine-resistant.

I remember when Delta started, Fauci said modifying the current vax is an easy process and it'll take much less time to get it ready as you can skip one of the steps (I think it was the safety studies that they didn't have to do?, but I can't remember exactly...) because all they have to do is to swap some kind of code in the vax to match the targeted virus. But because the vax still worked quite well against the Delta, they didn't bother to create the new vax. That's what I remember anyway.

 

[Chuckanut]

I remember when Delta started, Fauci said modifying the current vax is an easy process and it'll take much less time to get it ready as you can skip one of the steps (I think it was the safety studies that they didn't have to do?, but I can't remember exactly...) because all they have to do is to swap some kind of code in the vax to match the targeted virus. But because the vax still worked quite well against the Delta, they didn't bother to create the new vax. That's what I remember anyway.

IIRC, Eric Topol, who writes extensively on the corona virus, has said that a more universal corona virus vaccine is doable. He does not understand why we are not pursuing it.

 

[RobbieB]

Just another thing I'm not going to worry about.

I'm covid weary. I just look at the sign on the door to see if I need to put on the mask.