I just finished listening to a podcast on Morningstar where Bill Bengen mentioned he has taken his personal portfolio down to 20/80 about 2 years ago due to the Shiller PE 10 ratio. I also noticed there was some discussion here in 2018, https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/allocation-according-to-cape-94078.html, about the same concerns. Clearly, many folks who made these conservative AA adjustments over the last 2+ years have missed some real gains. Intellectually, I get the argument and when you look at today's ratio of 40, you would think its a no-brainer and we should all be running to the exits! So, now you/we are back to being a market timer having to be right twice. Looking at the historical Shiller PE 10 chart and noted down turns, I'm just not sure I'm really seeing a consistent "marker" that screams sell?? Is it 25, 30, 35... or now 40??
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
So, someone sell me on this strategy as opposed to keeping my boring 60/40 AA until further notice aka dirt nap.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
So, someone sell me on this strategy as opposed to keeping my boring 60/40 AA until further notice aka dirt nap.