Revisiting Shiller PE 10 AA Strategies

[target2019]

I hadn't planned on responding, but I wanted to clarify that different websites show different values for P/E. I'm ignoring forward P/E, which is an estimate. Some websites measure P/E up until the present, while others only update monthly. That might explain some of the difference.

Yahoo Finance has a nonsense P/E ratio on it's first page. Take SPY, where it shows "PE Ratio (TTM) 3.29" for the S&P 500, which is nonsense. Click on the "holdings" tab, and it shows "Price/Earnings 26.45", which makes sense. So I use the Yahoo Finance P/E from the Holdings tab, which agreed with another of the websites I used.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY/holdings?p=SPY

The earnings are up to June 2021. That is stated on https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings

This happens more times than not. Different yields, prices, etc.

 

[timbervest]

. . . and our ability to pay the bills long term is not going to be affected by those conservative allocations as I can pull from cash to do so.

In the end, this is all that matters and justifies why your superconservative AA is right for you. Less sure why you are "shouting fire in the theatre" on something you obviously cannot predict with any degree of certainty.