Buying the dip or….

Ninepoint5

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Stocks down (bear territory) inflation high, rate hikes coming ( I think higher than what Fed is saying) so do we think stocks are dipping further or is now a good time for those equities we’ve been eying?

 
Bear territory? SPY is only 5% off of its 12 month high. VTI is only off 6%.

Not anywhere close to bear territory... not even cub territory.
 
We picked up a couple hundred shares of UL after the tank yesterday on the way to the airport. Got em for $47/sh...nice 4% divy to boot.

Also got a few hundred shares of VIAC on 12/31 for ~$29/sh.
 
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Here's an opinion from Bloomberg on Jan 5th;

Bloomberg – Jan 5th, 2022,

The hammering in technology stocks that began to spread into the broader market Wednesday is being fueled by one of the most intense bouts of selling by professional speculators since the financial crisis. (2008)

Hedge funds, which spent December unloading high-growth, high-valuation stocks, began the new year by jettisoning software and chipmakers at a furious pace. During the four sessions through Tuesday, these sales reached the highest level in dollar terms in more than 10 years, data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime broker show.

The tech carnage worsened after minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting pointed to earlier and faster rate hikes, uncovering “a more hawkish Fed than some may have expected,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial.

The Nasdaq 100 Index dropped more than 3%, rounding out its worst two-day drop since March. Stocks boasting nose-bleed valuations bore the brunt of selling, with a Goldman basket of expensive software sinking 6.3% to the lowest level since last May.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Communication Services Index dropped as much as 1.5% on Thursday, with South Korea’s Kakao Games Corp. the biggest loser with a 14% slump. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index, which mainly tracks Chinese giants, closed 1.4% higher, erasing earlier losses. The gauge plunged 4.6% on Wednesday and was near oversold levels.

“The Fed is going to be raising rates this year, perhaps more aggressively than many thought,” said Mark Freeman, chief investment officer at Socorro Asset Management LP. “In many of these tech names, there is little support from the long-only community so it doesn’t take much selling pressure to push the names sharply lower, which in turn forces more selling by the hedge funds.”

The specter of higher borrowing costs prompted traders to rethink their long-held affection for tech firms. The rush for the exits created trouble for hedge funds whose concentrated bets on speculative software were still elevated even after unwinding some of those positions late last year. On Tuesday, Goldman’s long-short fund clients suffered their worst alpha drawdown, or below-market returns, in a year.

Personally, we may be in the first inning of a long term market correction.
 
Bear territory? SPY is only 5% off of its 12 month high. VTI is only off 6%.

Not anywhere close to bear territory... not even cub territory.


NASDAQ is a hiccup away from a correction and some big tech and bio (Twitter, ARK, moderna) stocks are looking for some honey (Bear) dropping more than 20% from recent highs.
 
Stocks down (bear territory) inflation high, rate hikes coming ( I think higher than what Fed is saying) so do we think stocks are dipping further or is now a good time for those equities we’ve been eying?


NASDAQ is a hiccup away from a correction and some big tech and bio (Twitter, ARK, moderna) stocks are looking for some honey (Bear) dropping more than 20% from recent highs.

But the NASDAQ is NOT "stocks" which is what you stated in your OP... NASDAQ is only a little more than 1/3 of the US stock market by market cap.
 
In some threads a month or two ago I said that I planned to fix my 20% equity allocation by buying if there was a dip. Some questioned whether I would actually do this given my past history.

I would like to increase my equity exposure to disruptive technology stocks. I have had my eye on TSLA, GOOG, AMZN, PLTR, NVDA, SQ, ARKK and ARKG, plus a handful of genomics companies.

During the past month I started to layer in to some of these, which has been like catching a falling knife, especially SQ, PLTR and the Ark ETFs.

This week some of my limit orders hit on TSLA, AMZN, PLTR and NVDA. I have bought as much SQ as I can stomach already, so that is going to stay where it is.

Fortunately or unfortunately, my timid nature, means that even with the recent buying spree (plus selling some Asian mutual funds), my overall equity allocation has not gone up more than 2% or so. I suppose the price drops in these tech names has helped to keep the percentage increase low.

My overall feeling is that we are likely to go lower on these tech stocks and I will probably try to control my buying urges for a while. I do think that in the five or six year time frame they will go back up.

What I am trying to grasp is the idea that was mentioned by Chamath in a podcast that when the interest rate goes up, the hedge funds have to recompute their expected future returns to account for the higher cost of money, so the current price of the stocks drops to fit the new expected cost of money.

I can follow that argument, and it seems to me that once the tech stocks are repriced to account for the new interest rates, buying them at the new low prices will be in line with their future growth and price appreciation. What I guess is up in the air is if the current repricing has factored in enough of the future rate increases or whether there may be some rate surprises still waiting to hit.

So, for now, I will layer in gently and try to keep my powder dry until I see the whites of their eyes.
 
Why do you have any dry powder? I am 100% invested per my AA 100% of the time.
 
Why do you have any dry powder? I am 100% invested per my AA 100% of the time.

Not to go down this rabbit hole again in this thread.

But when I decided to quit my job six years ago I decided that my portfolio was large enough to support my expected needs and I was not interested in going through the 50% drops that I had in 1987, 2001 and 2008 without having income to repair the damage with. The market seemed to be very overpriced (not my current view), so I cut my equity exposure way back and increased my cash on hand to enough to last five years or so even with a 50% market crash.

That was probably a mistake, looking in the rear view mirror, but it was my frame of mind during the stress of transitioning out of the work force.

In addition, I guess I have a little bit of dirty market timer degenerate gambler left in me and now that they cut off Internet poker it has to go somewhere.

I still am not convinced that some sort of macro event will not push the market down dramatically.
 
I hate down markets. But you guys are worrying about this dip?


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I can't buy it because I'm already in it. :facepalm:
But my crystal ball tells me this is not leading into a recession so the future is bright.
 
I hate down markets. But you guys are worrying about this dip?


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I can't buy it because I'm already in it. :facepalm:
But my crystal ball tells me this is not leading into a recession so the future is bright.

Well said and well illustrated!
 
Where are we? Should I worry? Will stock prices drop? Yeah.

So I'm buying this dip just as the previous one. I'm actually staying disciplined, and just looking to buy two growth ETFs as they drop to some depth, and during some unknown duration.

As mentioned elsewhere, I want to add growth, meaning the top 10 of SCHG. I'm just a little tired of individuals, and just going for ETFs.

This graphic helps answer inevitable questions of too much cash, it's just reversion to the mean, etc. Yeah, I know. It's my last hurrah.
 

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I just sold a hundred and sixty grand worth of equities to fund 2022 -:)
 
I hate down markets. But you guys are worrying about this dip?


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I can't buy it because I'm already in it. :facepalm:
But my crystal ball tells me this is not leading into a recession so the future is bright.


this is so on point.


I just finished a great book called The Psychology of Money. Has this concept as well as others that reinforce its about "time in the market" and not "timing the market"


Once I bought into that concept the daily gyrations became so much more palatable.
 
I'm still stuck in the past - not spending enough so ...

Have been nibbling every time there is a line of losses over several days. Nothing major ... "cheap" fun stuff, like JOBY ... electric airplanes! DM ... 3D manufacturing. BFLY ... tricorders! 😀

And, even ARKK which buys that same kind of fun, innovative stocks.
 
Not to go down this rabbit hole again in this thread.

But when I decided to quit my job six years ago I decided that my portfolio was large enough to support my expected needs and I was not interested in going through the 50% drops that I had in 1987, 2001 and 2008 without having income to repair the damage with. The market seemed to be very overpriced (not my current view), so I cut my equity exposure way back and increased my cash on hand to enough to last five years or so even with a 50% market crash.

That was probably a mistake, looking in the rear view mirror, but it was my frame of mind during the stress of transitioning out of the work force.

In addition, I guess I have a little bit of dirty market timer degenerate gambler left in me and now that they cut off Internet poker it has to go somewhere.

I still am not convinced that some sort of macro event will not push the market down dramatically.

Joe, thanks for posting this. We think similarly to you - some years ago we thought the market was getting overvalued, plus we had close to enough money, so we took some out of equities. Since then, watched the market go up and up even though there were many calls of overvaluation. So much for market timing!

We still kept some equities, just less. Were still working at that time.

Then, as interest rates started to go down, our income portfolio opportunities(private placement debt stuff) started to dry up. A lot of those high yield debts were called. So more went into cash and less opportunites appeared.

As those dried up, we bought some VCLT to shore up our income. Got some share price increase as interest rates fell to the basement, then sold it to protect those gains as interest rates started to increase. More cash.

Now with all that cash, we are starting to look at getting more into equities. Time in the market rather than timing the market. (This is 30 year money - not for us, but for our kids.) Half of me hopes for a market crash, which I've been waiting for for years, to reinvest, and the other half hopes that our equities will not lose too much.

It will be interesting to see what plays out!!
 
I'm keep looking.... Have 2 different chunks of cash i would like to put to work...
ones our grandson's savings account.
 
I'm having a hard time finding the dip, too.
 

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Why are you plotting it on a logarithmic scale?
 

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