Correction, Are we there yet?

[corn18]

It can happen here. The Nasdaq peaked in early ‘00, then took more than 10 years to reach that level once again.

That is based on share price alone. Include dividends and it was quicker.

 

[MichaelB]

That is based on share price alone. Include dividends and it was quicker.

Your chart shows S&P500, my post was about the Nasdaq. It was closer to 15 years before the index price including dividend recovered to its ‘00 high.

 

[ExFlyBoy5]

That is based on share price alone. Include dividends and it was quicker.

Sure, but if you were a young and spritely 55 years old in 1989...well...

 

[ponyboy]

Its always funny when people pretend this doesnt bother them. None of us like to see our accounts drop even if its only on paper. We're in correction territory for sure.

 

[Helen]

Its always funny when people pretend this doesnt bother them. None of us like to see our accounts drop even if its only on paper. We're in correction territory for sure.

Except for those who are sitting on low interest rate CDs and waiting to put that money in the market.

 

[corn18]

Your chart shows S&P500, my post was about the Nasdaq. It was closer to 15 years before the index price including dividend recovered to its ‘00 high.

Dangit, I dorked that up. You're right. I guess that's why it's good to own the haystack (Total Stock).

 

[Car-Guy]

About 10% of my dry powder will likely be fired today. I'll try to resist the temptation to use more since tomorrow is another day...

Well things certainly changed from the opening to the close. I did use ~10% of my surplus/discretionary account funds as planned in the first 30 to 60mins. Just sold "most" of it ~45 mins before the close... Got to love MSFT. Bought some XOM too but I'll need to hold that. To be honest, I thought XOM would go up a lot today (but it went down) and MSFT might go down some more today (but it went up, A LOT)... But don't follow my lead, it was just pure dumb luck,,,, again.


Rolled a 7 on the come out roll today.

 

[OldShooter]

Its always funny when people pretend this doesnt bother them. None of us like to see our accounts drop even if its only on paper. We're in correction territory for sure.

Ours has almost certainly dropped but I haven't looked at it. The drop is meaningless to these long term investors. There's nothing "pretend" about it.

 

[intent]

Thanks @SecondCor521 and @RunningBum for explaining the Roth conversion during a downturn concept to me.

 

[NW-Bound]

Your chart shows S&P500, my post was about the Nasdaq. It was closer to 15 years before the index price including dividend recovered to its ‘00 high.

Yes.

The Nasdaq pays pitiful dividend (0.52%) compared to the S&P (1.36%), which pays less than the Dow (1.75%). All numbers are based on current prices.

If you bought the Nasdaq at the peak in March 2000, a $10,000 investment became $1,880 in Sep 2002.

With reinvested dividends, you get back to $10,000 in Nov 2014.

But that is nominal value. Due to inflation, in Nov 2014, the $10,000 was equivalent to $7,200 in 2000.

You would need $14,300 in order to have the same purchasing power of the $10,000 in 2000. That takes you out to May 2017.

17 years to recoup your money! That's the peril of buying tech stocks at a bubbly high.

 

[SecondCor521]

Eeeew!

Thank you! Can you say it again tomorrow?

 

[NW-Bound]

Is Audrey the new anti-W2R?

What if both of them make their proclamation the same day? Who would win?

 

[Montecfo]

What's making this "correction" even worse is that bond funds aren't holding up their end of the bargain as a counter to equity fluctuations.
For example VBTLX is down 4.2% YTD.

Yes. because duration is not your friend at present.

VBTLX duration = 6.84

 

[target2019]

Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF Shares (VUSB) is -0.10% YTD according to Yahoo Finance.

 

[tmm99]

OMG, there's a rally going on today +700 points...

 

[audreyh1]

OMG, there's a rally going on today +700 points...

Hmmmm! Do I have long tails?

 

[W2R]

This volatility is simply breathtaking! Wow. At the present moment the Dow is up 782 since opening today. !!!

 

[aja8888]

The computers are working hard today after buying the dip yesterday. Once they get the top where they want it, down it comes again as the computers start dumping. Algorithms rule!

 

[Phroig]

It's as if the market's pleased that Russia invaded Ukraine! Go figure. "Buy the dip" is alive and well.

 

[disneysteve]

It's as if the market's pleased that Russia invaded Ukraine! Go figure.

The market hates uncertainty.


The threat of Russia possibly attacking was worse than them actually attacking.

 

[REWahoo]

The threat of Russia possibly attacking was worse than them actually attacking.

Unless you live in Ukraine.

 

[Phroig]

The market hates uncertainty.


The threat of Russia possibly attacking was worse than them actually attacking.

I agree the market hates uncertainty. However, the market's acting as if it's less concerned about the effect of the invasion.
There's also uncertainty about the magnitude of the interest rate hike next month. It could be a quarter point or a half point. I wonder if the market will go up if that uncertainty is resolved with the announcement of a half point increase.

 

[MichaelB]

I think it’s too early to draw any conclusions about Russia and Ukraine. Safe to say there’s lots of spare cash burning a hole in investors pockets, though.

 

[disneysteve]

Unless you live in Ukraine.

For sure. I was strictly referring to the market’s reaction. I think the attack is horrific.

 

[NW-Bound]

I think it’s too early to draw any conclusions about Russia and Ukraine. Safe to say there’s lots of spare cash burning a hole in investors pockets, though.

+1

We don't know yet how this war will end, and what effects it has on the world economy.