Investing in this market

[Magus]

Many electric car owners will only need to charge their car once a month.

you do realize the average American drives 15,000 miles a year, right? Someone that only charges once a month is someone that drives 200-300 miles a month or less, or 2500-3500 miles a year. Yes those folks exist but an extremely tiny % of the US adult population. And it’d still be far cheaper for them to just get a Honda Civic or something and buy the 6 gallons of gas a month.

 

[ejman]

All of them are pretty cool.

Battery range is key - the issue is magnified in aircraft vs in cars since much of the energy needed in an aircraft is to hold the aircraft off the ground. And adding more battery weight is sort of diminishing return whereas in cars, the additional weight is much less critical. YMMV

Future of air travel: Electric powered airships with their huge surface area covered in lightweight solar cell film. The Electric Zeppelin!

 

[Freedom56]

43% is automobiles. 66% is transportation but a third of that is trucking and a lot of the automobile is long distance driving not ideal with charging situation today. The main problem with mass electric vehicles besides charging times is the electric grid. Unless we start mass thorium nuclear right now, the grid today can’t handle it, and solar and wind simply cannot reach more than 25% of energy supply. So even if you shift it to electric, the electric will still otherwise come from FF. And for reasons that aren’t apparent to me, nuclear is shunned by the folks pushing green. We’ll eventually get there but it will take a lot longer than some want.

Solid state batteries charge in 10 minutes or less and the expected range based on power density is over 500 miles. When cars like this come to market at reasonable prices, it will be game over for the oil industry as we know it.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/first-official-pictures/nio/es7-suv/

 

[Magus]

Solid state batteries charge in 10 minutes or less and the expected range based on power density is over 500 miles. When cars like this come to market at reasonable prices, it will be game over for the oil industry as we know it.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/first-official-pictures/nio/es7-suv/

I hope you are shorting every oil company on the planet, you will be rich!

 

[purplesky]

I’m not missing the big picture at all as that wasn’t what we were discussing. And yes while a lot of people want to switch to electric, they aren’t willing to pay more or wait hours to charge their vehicles for long drives. There was a poll not too long ago that asked people if they wanted to reduce co2 usage and about 70% said yes. The next question of those 70% is how much they were willing to spend to reduce their co2 usage. It averaged $5. My point: people want lots of things - doesn’t mean they’ll get them or pay for them.

The electric grid can’t handle 20% electric vehicles (which still doesn’t account for most of the materials and energy for electric today require FFs) much less 90%+, not without thorium nuclear energy, of which there is no development and people won’t pay $1/kwh+ to get reliable sun and wind.

Yes we’ll eventually get there but the laws of thermodynamics simply don’t care about someone’s wants.

It’s not about being sensitive to big oil. You throw out names and slander an industry without understanding even a basic P&L, boom and bust, time value of money and frankly where all your energy comes from. But keep on doing you. If you want to get into a lot of detail, we can chat about supermarket economics, hotel economics or CPG and restaurant economics. I know a lot more about those since I’ve worked high up in all of them!

Dude I gave you a receipt. A specific example of big oil going after the state of California to reverse mpg standards that were set years ago. To fleece consumers at the pump.
Just Google it. The auto manufactures said no we’re good we are going the direction that California wants to go.

Yes the electric car thing is not going to happen overnight and everyone on the planet knows that.
But just recently all the big auto makers have fully committed to electric cars so the train has left the station.

It’s not an attack on Big oil to want an electric vehicle.

Yes you are correct that electric cars are crazy expensive for the most part. The new Ford F150 lightning pick up truck has a reasonable entry level point assuming Ford can keep their cost down and offer that Price out the door.

But all the new cars are expensive now. The new Toyota tundra TRD pro is about $74,000 plus the dealer Mark Ups and a new Toyota sequoia TRD pro Is about $75,000.

Everything is expensive.

 

[purplesky]

you do realize the average American drives 15,000 miles a year, right? Someone that only charges once a month is someone that drives 200-300 miles a month or less, or 2500-3500 miles a year. Yes those folks exist but an extremely tiny % of the US adult population. And it’d still be far cheaper for them to just get a Honda Civic or something and buy the 6 gallons of gas a month.

So you really love oil. ?? it’s kind of weird how passionate you are about oil. You must work in oil.

The average size American doesn’t really fit comfortably in a Honda Civic. lol
If you visit Disney World in Orlando Florida and people watch you will realize quickly that a Honda Civic is not a transportation option for the average size American.

I was amazed at how slender the French are when I visited Paris. So smaller vehicles definitely work in France.

 

[Freedom56]

I hope you are shorting every oil company on the planet, you will be rich!

That sector is too toxic for investors. It's far too capital intensive and the margins are too slim. Energy is almost as bad as the airline sector. The energy sector is in a secular bear market and that won't change. Every oil company executive knows that their future is about the same as Eastman Kodak was in the mid 90s when the first digital consumer camera appeared. People scoffed at the 1 mega pixel camera just like many did when Tesla started production. But where is Eastman Kodak now? People think planes and rockets will need kerosene to fly. Then Blue Origin proved that liquid hydrogen also is a viable fuel.

I used to think that solar panels were too expensive and would not be sufficient to meet our power needs. But in 2012 we installed a new generation of solar panels and micro-inverters for a net cost of just under $16K after tax credit. Our system generates 11 megawatts per year and we consume about 10 megawatts. Our electricity bill was $3600 in 2011. We broke even after 4.5 years and have an $1200 credit balance in our account from overproduction over the past 10 years of operation. Meanwhile rates have increased about 38% since 2012. We just need to add four more panels to our system to generate sufficient electricity to charge an EV.

 

[Koolau]

Future of air travel: Electric powered airships with their huge surface area covered in lightweight solar cell film. The Electric Zeppelin!

They only fly in the day time??

 

[Badger]

you do realize the average American drives 15,000 miles a year, right? Someone that only charges once a month is someone that drives 200-300 miles a month or less, or 2500-3500 miles a year. Yes those folks exist but an extremely tiny % of the US adult population. And it’d still be far cheaper for them to just get a Honda Civic or something and buy the 6 gallons of gas a month.

My wife and I have fairly new (3yrs) mid-sized SUVs with less than 10k miles each and average about 25mpg. That is about 3.5k miles/year so I guess we are in that group since we retired. They won't be traded anytime soon for another car whether it is electric or not. Maybe once we are no longer able to drive in the future we will trade in for cars that are self driving if they are available.

Cheers!

 

[Koolau]

We aren’t going to have several million new electric vehicles anytime soon. It’s going to be a very gradual slow process.
I mean not overnight.

But as quickly as Tesla can deliver new cars they will sell every one of them even with the new price increases.

The average electric car user is not going to be charging their car every day. lol. It’s not a refrigerator in the garage.

Many electric car owners will only need to charge their car once a month.

This site showing a chart of plug-ins (EVs and plug-in hybrids) suggests a rapid growth phase. Not "millions" today, but soon if we are to believe all the car companies vowing half or all electric by 2030.

https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/...nited,from 308,000 in 2020 to 608,000 in 2021.

And Tesla IS selling them as fast as they can make them - as are most other EV producers. This suggests rapid growth - much faster than the growth of electrical production when you consider that coal and older nukes are being taken off line regularly now. These plants are only being replaced by wind/solar AFAIK. Germany has learned the hard way that you can't fool mother nature. They were very successful at replacing old technology with renewables - but they found out that wind and solar are not reliable sources.

At this point, we are under producing electricity or else there wouldn't be official warnings of black outs coming. It would appear the only thing "saving us" from longer, deeper electrical shortages is that EV companies can still only build them so fast - it's not lack of demand, apparently.

We are potentially creating the perfect storm of rapidly increasing demand vs decreasing (reliable) supply. Not a good situation to be in. YMMV

 

[Koolau]

So you really love oil. ?? it’s kind of weird how passionate you are about oil. You must work in oil.

The average size American doesn’t really fit comfortably in a Honda Civic. lol
If you visit Disney World in Orlando Florida and people watch you will realize quickly that a Honda Civic is not a transportation option for the average size American.

I was amazed at how slender the French are when I visited Paris. So smaller vehicles definitely work in France.

Wait. What? What does this have to do with EVs? Or oil?

By the way, I fit into a Civic much easier than I do into a Model 3 Tesla - whatever that has to do with the price of rice.

 

[Koolau]

Using drones to carry shipping containers would be very useful for the shipping industry. Rural areas near cities.
26 foot containers or even smaller.

Yeah, that's what I want. Several thousand unmanned 25 ton shipping containers zipping overhead all day. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[pb4uski]

Solid state batteries charge in 10 minutes or less and the expected range based on power density is over 500 miles. When cars like this come to market at reasonable prices, it will be game over for the oil industry as we know it.

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/first-official-pictures/nio/es7-suv/

Yes, as I've considered getting an EV, with the range that EVs get it wold be practical as a day-to-day vehice for many people. The only hang up is long trips like our annual multi-day trip to and from Florida... it's just not yet practical for trips like that so I'll stick with hybrids or gas until they solve that problem. If I could fill up in 10 minutes and filling stations were readily available then EV would be a stronger possibility for us.

 

[Koolau]

Yes, as I've considered getting an EV, with the range that EVs get it wold be practical as a day-to-day vehice for many people. The only hang up is long trips like our annual multi-day trip to and from Florida... it's just not yet practical for trips like that so I'll stick with hybrids or gas until they solve that problem. If I could fill up in 10 minutes and filling stations were readily available then EV would be a stronger possibility for us.

Heh, heh, then there is the little issue of providing electricity to all those new fast chargers. We have a 100++ year old system of supplying fuel to cars/trucks - and it "breaks down" every few years (shortages and/or inelastic demand - price issues like now, refinery shut-downs, wars, etc.) Why do we think our relatively new fast-charger network will fare better? We've all been fascinated by the horror stories of power shortages and even power overages in Cali. Not to be overly pessimistic, but I think we'll have intermittent issues supplying all those new EVs for the foreseeable future. Hope I'm wrong and YMMV.

 

[ejman]

They only fly in the day time??

OK, we'll add a battery or two for the night time if you insist.

 

[Koolau]

OK, we'll add a battery or two for the night time if you insist.

1 or 2 batteries better be BIG. And that means, more weight, so air ship needs to be bigger, with more helium, and now we need bigger motors, which means bigger batteries...

As mentioned above, battery powered aviation comes with more built-in limitations than ground based vehicles - it's all about lift. Having said, that, the air ship idea makes a lot more sense than fixed wing designs or helicopter type lift. Most of the lift is from the lighter than air gas. I don't know what the trade off might be, not being an engineer, but about the best fixed wing/rotary aircraft have managed is, I think, half hour endurance.

Still sounds like a possible plan - assuming you have suitable weather to fly in. Air ships are more susceptible to unfavorable winds and storm situations. YMMV

 

[madatrub]

That sector is too toxic for investors. It's far too capital intensive and the margins are too slim. Energy is almost as bad as the airline sector. The energy sector is in a secular bear market and that won't change. Every oil company executive knows that their future is about the same as Eastman Kodak was in the mid 90s when the first digital consumer camera appeared. People scoffed at the 1 mega pixel camera just like many did when Tesla started production. But where is Eastman Kodak now? People think planes and rockets will need kerosene to fly. Then Blue Origin proved that liquid hydrogen also is a viable fuel.

I used to think that solar panels were too expensive and would not be sufficient to meet our power needs. But in 2012 we installed a new generation of solar panels and micro-inverters for a net cost of just under $16K after tax credit. Our system generates 11 megawatts per year and we consume about 10 megawatts. Our electricity bill was $3600 in 2011. We broke even after 4.5 years and have an $1200 credit balance in our account from overproduction over the past 10 years of operation. Meanwhile rates have increased about 38% since 2012. We just need to add four more panels to our system to generate sufficient electricity to charge an EV.

This seems like a gross overstatement. There are many refineries out there that just don't focus on gasoline production. Heck, most of them at this point don't. They'll be fine in our lifetimes.

And your examples are using the same "credit" system that those opposed to big oil routinely scoff at. What was your cost before tax credit, because thats the REAL cost. Howd your payout look without that credit?

I agree with the margins being poorer than most sectors, and yes its capital intensive. But isnt all manufacturing?

 

[purplesky]

This site showing a chart of plug-ins (EVs and plug-in hybrids) suggests a rapid growth phase. Not "millions" today, but soon if we are to believe all the car companies vowing half or all electric by 2030.

https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/...nited,from 308,000 in 2020 to 608,000 in 2021.

And Tesla IS selling them as fast as they can make them - as are most other EV producers. This suggests rapid growth - much faster than the growth of electrical production when you consider that coal and older nukes are being taken off line regularly now. These plants are only being replaced by wind/solar AFAIK. Germany has learned the hard way that you can't fool mother nature. They were very successful at replacing old technology with renewables - but they found out that wind and solar are not reliable sources.

At this point, we are under producing electricity or else there wouldn't be official warnings of black outs coming. It would appear the only thing "saving us" from longer, deeper electrical shortages is that EV companies can still only build them so fast - it's not lack of demand, apparently.

We are potentially creating the perfect storm of rapidly increasing demand vs decreasing (reliable) supply. Not a good situation to be in. YMMV

I guess good old fashioned American exceptionalism will get the job done with the latest infrastructure bill that recently passed.

So the power grid in the USA will be upgraded and improved . lol.

The driving range on electric cars will increase very quickly and people will not be charging everyday. Software can be used on electric cars to improve charging efficiency to help with a potential power grid drain problem that really is just a talking point to scare people about electric cars.

We are going to see electric cars with a 1000 mile range sooner than later.

We can do this.

 

[GenXguy]

We are going to see electric cars with a 1000 mile range sooner than later.

Most people won't be able to afford them or the replacement batteries. Then there's the availability problems. The power grid issues are real - we are already getting warnings about rolling blackouts in my state for the first time ever as more coal fired plants shut down. I see it taking many years before EVs dominate the roads .

 

[purplesky]

Wait. What? What does this have to do with EVs? Or oil?

By the way, I fit into a Civic much easier than I do into a Model 3 Tesla - whatever that has to do with the price of rice.

Order a model Y or Model S for comfort. The new Civics are nice. ?

He suggested buying a Honda Civic because Electric vehicles are too expensive.
I pointed out that the average size American does not fit comfortably in a Honda Civic. Americans are kind of large and like bigger vehicles for comfort.

Many people are buying electric vehicles to support the movement.
Because they can.

 

[purplesky]

Most people won't be able to afford them or the replacement batteries. Then there's the availability problems. The power grid issues are real - we are already getting warnings about rolling blackouts in my state for the first time ever as more coal fired plants shut down. I see it taking many years before EVs dominate the roads .

Most people have ridiculous size car payments now. Affordability

Somebody will offer electric cars in the 30K range sooner than later.
We are really just getting started. With big 3 now committed.

I see car haulers on the highway all the time now loaded with electric vehicles.
It is pretty amazing.

Again. People will not be charging their cars everyday. Software will help.

And really if Electric cars are the kick in the ass that America needs to improve the power grid we should all celebrate.

We have been hearing about our weak power grid for a long time.

I don't think people are comprehending how a $25000 price range electric car is going to change things. It's going to happen fast.

 

[OldShooter]

That sector is too toxic for investors. It's far too capital intensive and the margins are too slim. Energy is almost as bad as the airline sector. The energy sector is in a secular bear market and that won't change. Every oil company executive knows that their future is about the same as Eastman Kodak was in the mid 90s when the first digital consumer camera appeared. People scoffed at the 1 mega pixel camera just like many did when Tesla started production. But where is Eastman Kodak now? People think planes and rockets will need kerosene to fly. Then Blue Origin proved that liquid hydrogen also is a viable fuel. ...

Wow! That's amazing. I guess no one knows this but you; otherwise there would be no market at all for these toxic securities.

 

[NW-Bound]

Future of air travel: Electric powered airships with their huge surface area covered in lightweight solar cell film. The Electric Zeppelin!

The world is running out of helium too, which these airships need.

And I dunno about you, but I am not going up in a hydrogen-filled balloon.

See photo below of the Hindenburg.

Some facts about the Hindenburg: 70 passengers, 40 crewmen.

Travel time from Frankfurt to New Jersey: 3 days. Sounds bad, but that was expeditious compared to 6 weeks for sailing ships in the 19th century. And the ratio of crew to passengers meant lots of pampering. This was not for mass transportation, but for the elite.

 

[NW-Bound]

I forgot to add that in 1937 when the Hindenburg disaster happened, there was already commercial airplane travel.

Airplanes just did not have the range, so Atlantic crossings were done with airships.

 

[Koolau]

I guess good old fashioned American exceptionalism will get the job done with the latest infrastructure bill that recently passed.

So the power grid in the USA will be upgraded and improved . lol.

The driving range on electric cars will increase very quickly and people will not be charging everyday. Software can be used on electric cars to improve charging efficiency to help with a potential power grid drain problem that really is just a talking point to scare people about electric cars.

We are going to see electric cars with a 1000 mile range sooner than later.

We can do this.

I never know if you are serious. I'll just let your first two statements go, assuming they were tongue in cheek.

Range is simply a matter of more batteries (and beefing up the car to carry them - and then adding more batteries to haul the extra beef and so on.)

The issue about folks not needing to charge every day may be true. A 300 mile range might mean you could go a week without charging, but who's gonna wait and have to spend 12 hours at home or 35 minutes at a fast charge when they can charge at home every day for an hour or two while their car is not in use?

Also, not everyone will charge every day, but every day, lots of folks will charge. In theory, every mile requires some charge time, so in aggregate, you can't separate out the daily chargers and the occasional chargers. It all comes out the same. Some folks fill their tanks when they drop below 1/2 others wait until their on fumes. The same amount of fuel is pumped over a given time.

I agree that - given a clean sheet of paper and looking ahead to electric cars, we could design an efficient way to charge car batteries to minimize black outs (rolling electrical charging of cars instead of rolling black outs - very nice but we didn't do that and that would take a lot of buy in from electricity providers as well as the gummint regulators as well as the charging public. (I like that. THE CHARGING PUBLIC - I hereby claim copyright on that.)

So, while not insurmountable, the issues surrounding the increasing number of EVs needing to be charged and the decreasing production of electricity and the intermittent replacement of said electricity by fickle winds and photons, means it won't be easy and more importantly it won't be quick. There will be black outs - exasperated by car charging. Sorry, but that has to be true. It's true for water pressure at Super Bowl commercial time so it's true for the electrical grid with folks getting home from w*rk wanting to plug in their cars. YMMV