I have sinned. I sold

[11522914]

Only silver lining is if I get to buy it all back cheaper.

I'm curious. What is your action plan for buying it all back cheaper?

 

[11522914]

We're younger than you but feel the same. If "market timer" means I don't ignore the writing on the wall when inflation is 8 - 9% and the Fed says they are going to raise interest rates 7 times, them I'm pretty happy to be called a market timer. We've actually had a pretty decent year this past year, with less stocks, selling the bond funds, a pile of TIPS offsetting a low interest rate mortgage and buying more short term Treasuries and TIPS. Our goal is not to make a killing in the stock market in retirement, but if we can live well and leave the portfolio value intact in inflation adjusted dollars for our kids, I would be happy with that outcome.

+1

 

[Out of Steam]

Happened to me in early 2020. Sold stock after a partial recovery from the first COVID-related drop. It just says that we had an allocation we couldn't live with.

We are now at 40/60 stock-bond (mostly no market value risk), and I have rebalanced twice to stay there.

 

[MichealKnight]

my plan

I'm curious. What is your action plan for buying it all back cheaper?

If the stocks I sold go down - buy them back.

If they go up - regret selling 30% of my holdings.

From when I've made my post - I bought *some* back cheaper. Sadly they've still gone down but my loss was less.

Still waiting for further reduction.

The SDY I sold - I think 124 is showing 114. Not bad. Few more bucks and I won't have a bottom - but I'll buy, and I'm pleased I saved a 10% loss.

"Tax loss!" "Dollar cost average!" - - facts of life - but nothing I hold up as fun and noble. Cutting losses? I like that. The Google I sold - I think at 112 is now at 99. I retained $4,000 versus losing it. To be that's substantial. For anyone who doesn't feel so - please send me a check. Even Venmo it like the kids say.

My only regret: Not selling 100% of what I had. Wall Street Scam Inc still got its claws into 70% of my stocks and I"m dutifully being a "noble holder...." and seeing net worth decline accordingly.

 

[FiveDriver]

Timing the market? Yes - 30% of it. I've merely sold 30% hoping to avoid fun. 70% - is still in place, waiting to lose more value.

Good for you Michael. You don't need to explain or apologize to anybody.

I sold some portion of my QQQ's back in March when the FED first started to hike. Higher Interest Rates are rarely a good thing for Tech stocks. I got out at $362....today the QQQ's are trading around $275.

I'm sure you have a re-entry plan in mind. So do I.

 

[MichealKnight]

Cat - rebuy

As part of sell-apalooza.

Sold 400 shares of CAT at $181.93

Yesterday bought 200 shares of CAT ,at $165

Will it go down more? Probably. But on 200 shares, I didn't participate in $3,200 of loss. Will $3,200 send my kid to college? No. But if I saw $3,200 on the street - heck yeah I'd pick it up. Should've sold so much earlier at a higher price.

Hoping to buy the rest back soon - I think this one will be good - IF world leaders fail at egging on nuclear war.

 

[Hank]

I won't try to call a bottom. S/P 3750 I'll start buying ....and keep buying in increments if it keeps going lower.

.

Looks like you sold at a good time. It's below your threshold! Are you going to take step 2 and buy back in? You can do it!


Good luck

 

[MichealKnight]

Looks like you sold at a good time. It's below your threshold! Are you going to take step 2 and buy back in? You can do it!


Good luck

Thus far I've bought back from 10%-50% of what I sold. All markedly lower than what I sold for. Going by memory but here's stuff I've been buying back:

F
GOOG
CAT
FSR(new - speculative just a little bit -)
SDY
MCD (today - just 25% of what I sold)
BBY. (Sold around 73.90 - I think bought some back 66-ish.)
AVGO
JBLU
TFC
FITB

There's others I sold - just haven't started buying back yet.

New positions, considering: DEA, VZ

And in the meantime the cash raised is in the e-trade bank account@2% - so much better than had I left it with the Vince McMahon on steroids (Wall Street).

If things rally back to the highs - oh well I missed some. But thus far - at least SOME of my funds didn't participate in the latest fun stuff. I still have trouble imagining a deep recession - with labor shortages and all. But then again - housing is really slowing up so who knows.

 

[Hank]

Maybe I didn't read this entire thread closely but I thought you were looking to buy the index when it reached your threshold and thus lower the risk of the portfolio somewhat. I was surprised to see the stock list and that you bought back into them.



You have much more courage than me. Good luck.

 

[MichealKnight]

Not Brave

Maybe I didn't read this entire thread closely but I thought you were looking to buy the index when it reached your threshold and thus lower the risk of the portfolio somewhat. I was surprised to see the stock list and that you bought back into them.



You have much more courage than me. Good luck.

Actually, not brave. I wasn't brave enough to leave 100% of my allocation in place to get butchered. I shielded 30% of it.

The companies I bought back - measured amounts - I feel will be fine long term. Just wanted to save myself. some money, and so far the math shows $40,000 in losses avoided - man I could use $40k.

 

[Born2Fish]

Actually, not brave. I wasn't brave enough to leave 100% of my allocation in place to get butchered. I shielded 30% of it.

The companies I bought back - measured amounts - I feel will be fine long term. Just wanted to save myself. some money, and so far the math shows $40,000 in losses avoided - man I could use $40k.

I think that owning individual stocks at this time may be favorable to holding SPY...just not sure which stocks to buy.

 

[Out of Steam]

I think that owning individual stocks at this time may be favorable to holding SPY...just not sure which stocks to buy.

It seems like whatever fund or index you buy, its value is concentrated in the same few tech stocks. Not a healthy situation.

 

[VanWinkle]

It seems like whatever fund or index you buy, its value is concentrated in the same few tech stocks. Not a healthy situation.

It's been healthy in the past, but who knows what the future holds. I'll take
my chances on the overall market instead of trying to pick the winners. Picking stocks is like picking up a bat against Nolan Ryan, you might get lucky, but you could get killed.

VW

 

[COcheesehead]

It seems like whatever fund or index you buy, its value is concentrated in the same few tech stocks. Not a healthy situation.

Not always true. I own a diversified fund that is down only 3.9% YTD and up 7%+ for 1 year which all things considered is pretty good.

 

[MichealKnight]

SPY

I think that owning individual stocks at this time may be favorable to holding SPY...just not sure which stocks to buy.

Don't individual stocks make up SPY?

 

[razztazz]

Originally Posted by Born2Fish
I think that owning individual stocks at this time may be favorable to holding SPY...just not sure which stocks to buy

Don't individual stocks make up SPY?

Yes, but SPY doesn't know which ones to buy either.

 

[ejman]

It seems like whatever fund or index you buy, its value is concentrated in the same few tech stocks. Not a healthy situation.

I don't think so. I own two dividend index funds - Vanguard High Dividend Index fund (VHYAX) down 8.5% YTD and Schwab US Dividedn Equity (SCHD) down 11% YTD, both doing much better this year than the usual S&P 500 or total stock market index funds. That usually the case as sectors rotate in and out of favor. The tech names in the S&P 500 will rotate out as individual companies move up and down. At one point in time companies such as IBM and GE were top holdings in the S&P 500, they are way down now. Nothing ever stays the same.

 

[MichealKnight]

Bought Back all of KO

Had sold off 800 KO shares at 61.98 - bought it all back today for $55.00

Have no idea if it's the bottom - but pleased with the $5,500 in losses I saved.

 

[SecondCor521]

Had sold off 800 KO shares at 61.98 - bought it all back today for $55.00

Have no idea if it's the bottom - but pleased with the $5,500 in losses I saved.

Sure.

Just be sure to account for all your winners and your losers, tax effects, and adjust for risk.

As an example, how much more would your cash have made in the market this week? As a rough example, suppose you had $100K in a high yield savings account paying 2%. The S&P500 is up 4.3% this week. Not being invested would have cost you $2,300.

As another example, had you held KO, you would have had a loss of $5,500. But you probably would have federal and perhaps state tax savings of $1,000 or more. Sure, better to avoid the loss entirely if you can, but you should include the tax benefit in your accounting; it's real money that spends just the same.

Yes, I'm cherrypicking. But I think you may also be doing likewise. Cherrypicking distorts perception from reality and can lead to sub-optimal decision making.

 

[MichealKnight]

Thanks!

Sure.

Just be sure to account for all your winners and your losers, tax effects, and adjust for risk.

As an example, how much more would your cash have made in the market this week? As a rough example, suppose you had $100K in a high yield savings account paying 2%. The S&P500 is up 4.3% this week. Not being invested would have cost you $2,300.

As another example, had you held KO, you would have had a loss of $5,500. But you probably would have federal and perhaps state tax savings of $1,000 or more. Sure, better to avoid the loss entirely if you can, but you should include the tax benefit in your accounting; it's real money that spends just the same.

Yes, I'm cherrypicking. But I think you may also be doing likewise. Cherrypicking distorts perception from reality and can lead to sub-optimal decision making.

Cherry picking, questioning - all is great and I appreciate it.. I think when one doesn't wish to be questioned, or a philosophy doesn't like to be questioned - its not investing - it's religious.

Yes, could have had Federal Savings on $5,500 in losses. But the tax savings - would be 15% - the long term cap gains rate? So that would've been roughly $825 in savings. Oh, I also lost approx $344 because of Div-Ex. So if I pretend the Dvs are non taxable just to make it easy:

$5,500 in losses prevented.
-$825 in tax loss credit - maybe.
-$340 in divs forfeited.

Won't add in the month's worth of bank interest- not much money.

Still feel it points to a savings, whatever one can call it of $4,335.

Glad it's reinvested. Even if it goes down more, this one has usually been ok in the end.



(The cash generated from selling KO spent a short time in an E-TRADE bank account earning 2% on an annualized basis.)

 

[SecondCor521]

Cherry picking, questioning - all is great and I appreciate it.. I think when one doesn't wish to be questioned, or a philosophy doesn't like to be questioned - its not investing - it's religious.

Yes, could have had Federal Savings on $5,500 in losses. But the tax savings - would be 15% - the long term cap gains rate? So that would've been roughly $825 in savings. Oh, I also lost approx $344 because of Div-Ex. So if I pretend the Dvs are non taxable just to make it easy:

$5,500 in losses prevented.
-$825 in tax loss credit - maybe.
-$340 in divs forfeited.

Won't add in the month's worth of bank interest- not much money.

Still feel it points to a savings, whatever one can call it of $4,335.

Glad it's reinvested. Even if it goes down more, this one has usually been ok in the end.

(The cash generated from selling KO spent a short time in an E-TRADE bank account earning 2% on an annualized basis.)

Tax savings would depend on your marginal rate, whether it would have been LT or ST, and what other capital gains or losses you had this year, and also if you had a ST or LT capital loss carry forward from prior years. You'd have to model it out in a tax program to know for sure.

I thought you had a fair amount of cash on the sidelines, but maybe that's not the case any more.

 

[MichealKnight]

Uber

New position - used some of the cash generated - Uber at $25. Usually this kind of company - not my cup of tea. So just a small position.

 

[aja8888]

New position - used some of the cash generated - Uber at $25. Usually this kind of company - not my cup of tea. So just a small position.

Just curious, why would you buy shares in a company that has never made a profit in the face of a impending recession? do you know something the street doesn't?

Intel at $25 that has earnings and pays a 4+% div. may be a better gamble.

 

[MichealKnight]

Tiny of my portfolio is speculation. FSR is one, Uber is another so far. Fully agree with your sentiments hence it's just a tiny position. Other than these 2 - any other thing I hold would be considered a mainstream held stock and or dividend aristocrat .

 

[MichealKnight]

Sorry hit send too quick.

Also - I won't get too descriptive here - but there's a reason it came down a bit more today....and IMO that isn't gonna stick.