Asset class winners and losers so far this year

[soupcxan]

It's been a brutal year across so many asset classes. Here's the year to date returns for Vanguard's indexes. Doesn't seem to matter whether you tilted towards anything in particular

Large cap: -24%
Mid cap: -29%
Small cap: -20%
Value: -21%
Growth: -25%
Pssst...Wellesley: -8%

Well, surely if you diversified overseas, you would have done better?

Developed international: -31%
Emerging international: -40%

What if you held some of the more flashy assets instead of all these stocks?

High yield bonds: -11%
Real estate: -11%
Precious metals and mining: -40%
Market neutral: -5%
Commodities (DJP or PCRDX): -14%
Pure-play gold (GLD): 0%
Pure-play oil (USO): 0%

Having covered all of the losers, what winners (if any) were there?

Prime money market fund: +2%
Intermediate term treasuries: +6%
TIPS: +3%
Total bond market: +1%

Man, this is discouraging.

 

[W2R]

Yes, it is! But then the market is a roller coaster. Hopefully when it turns around, it will do so strongly.

It seems like it is just taking so long to do that. I will feel a lot better when it does.

I am just so thankful that inflation has not been worse than it has been.

 

[MGYog]

What's the other choice, stuff it in the mattress? I don't think so.

 

[LOL!]

Pssst ... Wellesley is not an asset class. It is a mix of asset classes.

My GNMA fund is up more than TIPS for both YTD and past 12 months (but less than pure treasuries).

 

[Dawg52]

What's the other choice, stuff it in the mattress? I don't think so.

Doesn't look so bad at the moment.

 

[W2R]

What's the other choice, stuff it in the mattress? I don't think so.

CD's could be an option, but I wouldn't want to get locked in for very long.

If I were willing/able to be a landlord, probably I would be investing some in real estate. But, I am barely able to keep my own house in good repair, much less a rental, and I am nowhere near tough enough to extract rent from unwilling renters. I would end up feeling sorry for them and my rental would become a venture in charity housing, rather than an investment.

I have never kept money in the house, other than my meager wallet contents. But in another thread, a surprising percentage ER forum members said they kept thousands in the house for emergencies.

 

[Orchidflower]

Even during the Great Depression, the longest period of time we have had down in the stock market is 5 years....granted, it must have seemed like 500 years during that time.
Some time ago on this board this year I heard a Wall Street strategist on probably Squawk (a lady whose name I forget at the moment) say that this period of time would be like 1932-37, which meant up and down, up and down...I received lots of sarcasm for the post; however, seems the lady was right on. Again, right on!
My attitude is this will end, the market will go up as it always does...just when will it start turning up is my question?? In a couple months? A couple years?
(...and am I surely am not alone on this board in thinking that this is a great time to buy good, stable products that we all will still be using 20 years from now. I see why Buffet bought GE.)

 

[Nords]

What's the other choice, stuff it in the mattress? I don't think so.

Philip Greenspun observed that a local mattress outfit has gone out of business due to just this sort of thinking...

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog » The thriving Massachusetts economy

Ol' Phil's sounding pretty bitter & cynical these days. Not an encouraging sign for unmarried childless male ERs in their 40s.

 

[deepc]

At the probable risk of incurring the wrath of the folks here who believe that the market is the only way to go:

I bonds. Ours are at over 6 pct non-taxable now for a 6 month pd.
CDs. 4pct, 6 month to 15 month terms.

Tortoise and hare stuff.

 

[haha]

If Greenspun is unhappy I would say it has a lot less to do with his age or marital status than his clear sighted intelligence. He knows that stupid policies espoused by stupid and/or self serving people produce unhappy results. Somehow Phil can't just say "Gosh, but it will probably all be fine somehow. Tra-la-la."

Ha

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Phils a smart guy AND he's a new englander. We're all cynical and pissed off at birth. Look at how many of the major comedians come from new england...

 

[haha]

Phils a smart guy AND he's a new englander. We're all cynical and pissed off at birth. Look at how many of the major comedians come from new england...

If you aren't pissed off, you aren't paying attention.

I just walked down to my library and picked up a copy of the book he is touting- A Farewell to Alms, by Gregory Clark.

This should help me annoy my friend who is an NGO worker. These folks can get funding for some amazing ventures.

Ha

 

[Dawg52]

At the probable risk of incurring the wrath of the folks here who believe that the market is the only way to go:

I bonds. Ours are at over 6 pct non-taxable now for a 6 month pd.
CDs. 4pct, 6 month to 15 month terms.

Tortoise and hare stuff.

No wrath from me. Your conservative and you listened to your instincts. I'm conservative but listened to the philosophy that a balanced approach is better, even if you are conservative. No one to blame but myself. Now I'm just hoping to get back to where I was when I retired, 18 months ago. Pretty sad.

 

[Orchidflower]

LOTS of comedians from Texas, too. Wonder what that says about that area?

 

[REWahoo]

LOTS of comedians from Texas, too. Wonder what that says about that area?

We have a sense of humor?

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

No wrath from me. Your conservative and you listened to your instincts. I'm conservative but listened to the philosophy that a balanced approach is better, even if you are conservative. No one to blame but myself. Now I'm just hoping to get back to where I was when I retired, 18 months ago. Pretty sad.

Eh, I remember plenty of threads a couple of years ago where people with ibonds were trying to unload them as fast as they could because they paid so poorly.

At 6%, one is barely staying ahead of inflation. At 4%, ground is being lost.

With two bears in ten years, its easy to feel bad about having a balanced allocation. Something tells me that 5 years from now people holding some equities wont feel all that bad.

 

[Marquette]

We have a sense of humor?

Wouldn't one have to to live in Texas? What with all of the snakes, bugs, spiders, hurricanes, etc. Those that don't have a sense of humor probably move to Oklahoma.

 

[LOL!]

Wouldn't one have to to live in Texas? What with all of the snakes, bugs, spiders, hurricanes, etc. Those that don't have a sense of humor probably move to Oklahoma.

Yep, and the intelligence level of both states is raised when that happens.

 

[DblDoc]

To roughly quote Bill Bernstein. We should be thankfull that the market is down. Without the declines there is no risk, without the risk there is no long-term reward. Stay the course...

DD

 

[lawman]

My largest asset is my I - Bonds..I have many paying 8.53%..Wish I had more at that rate..

 

[soupcxan]

A few other "asset classes" I forgot:

My I bonds are currently paying almost 8%, hopefully will adjust higher in November.

Prepaying the mortgage: 5.75% (since the other rates of return I posted are pre-tax, so is this one).

As for the poster who said Wellesley isn't an asset class...you need to get some religion.

 

[Alan]

I agree that cash, including I-Bonds is an asset class and this year it has been my best performer, but as part of a balanced diversified portfolio I don't move loads of money from one asset class to another to chase the best sector.

Looking over the last 3 years my cash asset class has returned 4.25%/year compared with my total investments of 2%/year.

However, I think that is about as good as it gets with cash / I-Bonds. My 5 year portfolio returns are 6.5%/year, 10 year is 6%/yr and 13 year return is 8%/yr. Hardly stunning but I don't intend to make any AA changes in light of a bad year.

The above figures include 2008 ytd of -11%/yr which so far is the same as the return I had in 2002, which is my worst year in 13 years I have been investing.

 

[soupcxan]

Update: Here are updated YTD returns in bold to reflect last weeks carnage. If you are not of a strong constitution, I urge you to look away.

Large cap: -24% -38%
Mid cap: -29% -42%
Small cap: -20% -33%
Value: -21% -37%
Growth: -25% -36%
Pssst...Wellesley: -8% -15% (the unkindest cut of all!)

Developed international: -31% -44%
Emerging international: -40% -52%

High yield bonds: -11% -19%
Real estate: -11% -19%
Precious metals and mining: -40% -50%
Market neutral: -5% -7%
Commodities (DJP or PCRDX): -14% -25%
Pure-play gold (GLD): 0% -2%
Pure-play oil (USO): 0% -14%

Prime money market fund: +2% +2%
Intermediate term treasuries: +6% +5%
TIPS: +3% -3%
Total bond market: +1% -1%

And some of the other asset classes that were suggested:
I-bonds: +4%
Prepay mortgage: +6%
GNMA: +2%

 

[JohnDoe]

Soup, thanks for the update - i think.

 

[Alan]

Interesting reading - thanks.

I have a generous slab of I-bonds as a "volatility parachute", although at -19% ytd it doesn't feel like it is slowing my descent too much