clifp
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Oct 27, 2006
- Messages
- 7,733
What will the Dow be at the end of 2009
Based on other times in history with housing collapses, I can't see the upside expected. Be nice if it happens but I am expecting:
Dow 4,632
Based on other times in history with housing collapses...
I find it interesting the the poll only allows for a 3000 drop but allows a 5000 gain.
It's probably not intended to be a push poll but it is as our tendency is to vote near the middle of the given values so you don't seem like a nut.
I'll bet that if the poll went from 9000 to 18000 we'd see more votes in the 1300 range instead of the 10000 range.
What is referred to as the "Great Train Wreck of 1890 - 1896" at the time the price declines were mostly for farms, but that was the primary residence at the time.Can you list some of these times? The great depression USA, 1929; Japan 1989. Are there any others?
Ha
I respect your judgment as you give reasons for your expectations, and you have been right a lot more than wrong on this board. Still, I wonder if these temporally or geographically remote events shine much light on our modern situation?What is referred to as the "Great Train Wreck of 1890 - 1896" at the time the price declines were mostly for farms, but that was the primary residence at the time.
The decline in land values following the Civil war in 1867 leading to the Great Long Depression of 1870.
I respect your judgment as you give reasons for your expectations, and you have been right a lot more than wrong on this board. Still, I wonder if these temporally or geographically remote events shine much light on our modern situation?
Ha
I have no clue. I do think that I will very likely have a higher net worth at year end 2009, at least I hope so.
Ha
I think a lot people have given up on their 401Ks. And they'll be real slow to jump back in. Forget the market "six month look-ahead". People are going to need to see the numbers actually make a bottom.