2009 Predictions

[clifp]

What will the Dow be at the end of 2009

 

[clifp]

In addition to voting if any folks want to gaze into your crystal ball and add other predictions, please feel free. I'll judge the result next year and even hand out prizes...

Dow 12,200
S&P 1240
10 Year Treasury Interest Rate 3.9%

Ronald Burris will be the Senator from Illinois.
Paula Abdul will no longer be a judge on American Idol.

 

[haha]

I have no clue. I do think that I will very likely have a higher net worth at year end 2009, at least I hope so.

Ha

 

[73ss454]

11ish would be good.

 

[ziggy29]

As a contrarian, I don't like the results so far....

 

[Frugality_of_Apathy]

9872.15

 

[Notmuchlonger]

I voted 14k. Im an optimist. Or slightly out of touch

 

[W2R]

Oh THANK GOODNESS!! In the past, our polls have been pretty close. If the Dow is 11,000 at the end of the year, as this poll predicts so far, I will be deliriously happy, the universe will be regaining its balance, and all that sort of good thing.

 

[FUEGO]

I'm gonna go big and say dow 11,000. That represents a 25% increase for 2009.

Oil - $55/bbl
Gas - $1.35/gal wholesale

My net worth: up some.
Hair: more gone.

 

[Ronstar]

I'm saying 10,487 based on no supporting info. Its just a guess.

 

[Running_Man]

Based on other times in history with housing collapses, I can't see the upside expected. Be nice if it happens but I am expecting:

Dow 4,632

 

[Frugality_of_Apathy]

Based on other times in history with housing collapses, I can't see the upside expected. Be nice if it happens but I am expecting:

Dow 4,632

I find it interesting the the poll only allows for a 3000 drop but allows a 5000 gain.

It's probably not intended to be a push poll but it is as our tendency is to vote near the middle of the given values so you don't seem like a nut.

I'll bet that if the poll went from 9000 to 18000 we'd see more votes in the 1300 range instead of the 10000 range.

 

[haha]

Based on other times in history with housing collapses...

Can you list some of these times? The great depression USA, 1929; Japan 1989. Are there any others?

Ha

 

[clifp]

I find it interesting the the poll only allows for a 3000 drop but allows a 5000 gain.

It's probably not intended to be a push poll but it is as our tendency is to vote near the middle of the given values so you don't seem like a nut.

I'll bet that if the poll went from 9000 to 18000 we'd see more votes in the 1300 range instead of the 10000 range.

I thought about this effect before constructing the poll, I ended allowing for a 50% decrease in the Dow and 56% increase which is reasonably symmetrical. This range encompasses the vast majority of 1 year changes in the DJIA.

 

[Eagle43]

I voted 11000. But I also picked the Cowboys to win the super bowl, McCain to win the presidency, and The Red Sox to win the Series. So, I could be wrong!

 

[unclemick]

12000 and the Saint's make the playoffs.

heh heh heh - hope springs eternal. Meanwhile I'll be shifting deck chairs on the Titanic to try and upgrade the yields on my Norwegian widow stocks - at least until next football season.

 

[standupguy]

I'm mostly in cash for now. I lost about 12% in 2008 and am thankful for that. I think we'll see at least one more big dip in Q1 2009 so I'm staying on the sidelines for a bit longer.

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"- John Maynard Keynes

 

[Dawg52]

DOW 20,000 and my Mississippi State Bulldogs go undefeated in all sports.

 

[Running_Man]

Can you list some of these times? The great depression USA, 1929; Japan 1989. Are there any others?

Ha

What is referred to as the "Great Train Wreck of 1890 - 1896" at the time the price declines were mostly for farms, but that was the primary residence at the time.

The decline in land values following the Civil war in 1867 leading to the Great Long Depression of 1870.

 

[haha]

What is referred to as the "Great Train Wreck of 1890 - 1896" at the time the price declines were mostly for farms, but that was the primary residence at the time.

The decline in land values following the Civil war in 1867 leading to the Great Long Depression of 1870.

I respect your judgment as you give reasons for your expectations, and you have been right a lot more than wrong on this board. Still, I wonder if these temporally or geographically remote events shine much light on our modern situation?

Ha

 

[Running_Man]

I respect your judgment as you give reasons for your expectations, and you have been right a lot more than wrong on this board. Still, I wonder if these temporally or geographically remote events shine much light on our modern situation?

Ha

I truly hope not, but if Clif is going to give out prizes I though I might as well give out my best guess.

 

[barbarus]

I have no clue. I do think that I will very likely have a higher net worth at year end 2009, at least I hope so.

Ha

I'm rather sure I'll have more money by then too.
I'm also positive each dollar will be worth less.

Better off than many will be I guess.

 

[dmpi]

I predict a dow around 7000.
I don't see housing hitting the bottom yet.
I don't see unemployment hitting it's high yet.
I think corporate profits will continue to go down.
I think consumer confidence & spending will continue to go down.
I think a lot people have given up on their 401Ks. And they'll be real slow to jump back in. Forget the market "six month look-ahead". People are going to need to see the numbers actually make a bottom.

And the good news.... we'll be a year closer to hitting the bottom.

 

[FinanceDude]

I think a lot people have given up on their 401Ks. And they'll be real slow to jump back in. Forget the market "six month look-ahead". People are going to need to see the numbers actually make a bottom.

Actually, in the tech wreck and after 9/11, less than 20% of all 401K folks quit contributing. ANother smaller amount reduced what they were putting in. Most just let it go on as before.......

 

[wildcat]

8000 - 2nd half optimists becomes pessimists. How can we compare past bear markets to this one? Some policy mistakes can be repeated but so much of our world has changed.