Where do you see the recession

[wildcat]

I have seen people drop their health insurance coverage like crazy. Senior mgt has always been under the belief that individual policies pick up during recessions as people are let go from jobs and group plans. Not the case at all.

I have noticed that people at work are much more on edge than usual following a big round of job cuts and smaller ones here and there. People seem to hoard their knowledge and skills in fear of being replaced. The company is outsourcing as much work as possible to cut wages.

Unemployed in the state is close to 11%, metro area is around 10%. Toyota and Ford plants are ramped down along with all the suppliers Toyota's presence created years ago.

Real estate sales are very slow but prices don't seem to be dropping although I'm sure some deals can be found. Real estate never really experienced a huge price boom but a lot of construction took place. A lot of 1/2 developed neighborhoods & communities are still visible and will be for some time.

I have seen more vacancies in commercial strips. Small businesses, I believe, have been the victim in most cases. We had one GM dealer go under as well as a boat dealer.

Job section got so small it was combined with another section.

Seems like groceries are still still doing well but everything else is slow. People still seem to be eating out quite a bit.

And for my unofficial sign - I took the day off from work and went fishing at a local public pond. Normally on a week day, I don't have much competition and the banks are fairly vacant. Not the case this past Friday. Tons of people out there (looked like a weekend) and everyone seemed to be keeping their fish

Hard to imagine the stock market gains when you see stuff like that going on...

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

I was out of work for 5 months here in Calgary, Alberta. Where I worked last (a major engineering company and typical) dropped from about 1,100 to about 250 (my estimates).

Many of those still working had their salaries cut 10-20%. I am getting about 7% less today.

Traffic on the roads and on the commuter trains is down.

According to the radio, Calgary was gaining population at the rate of 100 people a day. Now it is down to about 30 people a day.

Condo prices are down. Apartment rents are down. Both due to increased supply and reduced demand.

Our son-in-law, a finish carpenter in the Pacific Northwest, was working full time this time last year. Now, no more than two days a week, often none.

 

[Gone4Good]

I work in NYC in finance. I'm shocked at how few unemployed people I know. While I know many, many people who've lost their jobs, nearly all of them have been reemployed. A surprising number of new companies have been created by displaced Wall-Street professionals. We're actually seeing an exodus from the large institutions to smaller shops as people flee the "loving embrace" in which Uncle Sam clasps the larger firms. Creative destruction, indeed.

Locally there are more empty store fronts and "For Sale" signs. But from my limited vantage point, it doesn't look like the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

 

[John Galt III]

I see the recession in the price increases in the things I want or need. In my town, restaurant prices going up, not down. Coupon deals at same restaurants getting less generous. Beer prices in restaurants and stores going up, up, up.
A plate of Nachos is $10.50. An 8 oz hamburger and fries is $9.50. 2 years ago it was $6.00 for the Nachos and $6.95 for the burger and fries. A pint of beer was $2.95 then, now it is $4.00. But the place is always packed whenever I go there.

 

[W2R]

I see the recession in the price increases in the things I want or need. In my town, restaurant prices going up, not down. Coupon deals at same restaurants getting less generous. Beer prices in restaurants and stores going up, up, up.
A plate of Nachos is $10.50. An 8 oz hamburger and fries is $9.50. 2 years ago it was $6.00 for the Nachos and $6.95 for the burger and fries. A pint of beer was $2.95 then, now it is $4.00. But the place is always packed whenever I go there.

Good heavens, remind me to never move to your town (wherever it is)! Those prices are awful.

Tonight Frank and I ate Chinese. I ordered sesame chicken with shrimp fried rice and an egg roll. That cost $8.25 (the most expensive dinner combo on the menu). The plate was piled high enough to feed three people (there was well over a half pound of chicken, 1.5-2.0 cups of rice, and an egg roll 2" thick) and the food was great. Service was very good and the atmosphere quiet and informal.

 

[accountingsucks]

I was out of work for 5 months here in Calgary, Alberta. Where I worked last (a major engineering company and typical) dropped from about 1,100 to about 250 (my estimates).

Many of those still working had their salaries cut 10-20%. I am getting about 7% less today.

Traffic on the roads and on the commuter trains is down.

According to the radio, Calgary was gaining population at the rate of 100 people a day. Now it is down to about 30 people a day.

Condo prices are down. Apartment rents are down. Both due to increased supply and reduced demand.

Our son-in-law, a finish carpenter in the Pacific Northwest, was working full time this time last year. Now, no more than two days a week, often none.

I'm in Alberta too and the construction company I work for cut about 20% of staff in the fall. We are Canada wide and things in Ontario are about 40% behind last years pace while in Alberta and BC it was pretty close to last year which was a record year. Having said that, the second half will be bleak as that is the story our major customers are telling us. I expect unemployment in Alberta to hit 10% in 2010 (6.5 now) as a couple of major projects will be finished at that time ( about 15,000 tradesmen employed by these projects). The provincial gov't also just announced a hiring freeze.

 

[John Galt III]

Good heavens, remind me to never move to your town (wherever it is)! Those prices are awful.

Tonight Frank and I ate Chinese. I ordered sesame chicken with shrimp fried rice and an egg roll. That cost $8.25 (the most expensive dinner combo on the menu). The plate was piled high enough to feed three people (there was well over a half pound of chicken, 1.5-2.0 cups of rice, and an egg roll 2" thick) and the food was great. Service was very good and the atmosphere quiet and informal.

Want2, that sounds like the prices here 10 years ago. I hope your prices stay low.

 

[uncledrz]

good and bad

Western Michigan, so we've been in a downturn for at least 8 years (since 9/11).

Auto industry has been hit very hard and that has ripple effect that goes to suppliers, plastic mold injection industry, seats, seat covers, ....you get the idea. Furntiure industry (office) which used to employ quit a few is down. State government contiues to cut which has a impact on schools, roads, state police and just about everything else.

OTOH, medical industry is growing, animal health is growing, agriculture has had its ups and downs, seems that the auto industry will have some kind of rebirth although it will definitly been smaller, so there are positive signs.

Housing prices are down, but this has been going on for quite a while because of the auto industry downturn, construction is down and there are some housing/retail/commercial/industrial vacanies.

Yet, most good business and good locations are holding there own, most people do have work, most people are out spending money....just a bit more cautious. Still some new construction, mostly commercial or governmental, on the residential side lots of people are staying put and improving their homes.

So overall, we are in a recession, a pretty severe one, but not a depression, not even close, and this is in Western Michigan which is the hardest hit state in the Country.

 

[Walt34]

DW mentioned that there seemed to be more closed stores at the mall, newspapers frequently carry articles about how pressed food pantries are, but we haven't really seen much change. The houses for sale take longer to sell, but they do usually sell eventually.

All the local banks have signs out front that they are lending.

But being close to the Washington, D.C. area and the government employees and contractors (of which I am one) this area is still somewhat insulated from the real free market world. Many of my neighbors take the train to DC or endure that brutal commute up and down IS 270, which on a good day is an hour and a half. And thanks to Senator Byrd, there are a number of govt. installations nearby. When we first moved here I wondered why the Coast Guard would have a facility in WV, then it came to me - "Ah, Senator Byrd!"

 

[NW-Bound]

...
But being close to the Washington, D.C. area and the government employees and contractors (of which I am one) this area is still somewhat insulated from the real free market world...

I have read that the "small government" pledge by politicians is certainly a myth. The DC area employment has been growing for the last 10 years or so.

Note: I have nothing against gummint employees. One has to go to where the jobs are. It is just sad that society cannot create jobs elsewhere for people. The cause of that would be the subject of many threads belonging in the soapbox, which has been closed.

 

[ziggy29]

I see the recession in the price increases in the things I want or need. In my town, restaurant prices going up, not down. Coupon deals at same restaurants getting less generous. Beer prices in restaurants and stores going up, up, up.
A plate of Nachos is $10.50. An 8 oz hamburger and fries is $9.50. 2 years ago it was $6.00 for the Nachos and $6.95 for the burger and fries. A pint of beer was $2.95 then, now it is $4.00. But the place is always packed whenever I go there.

The deflation is largely in the big ticket discretionary stuff that people can live without in tough times.

And if you're not buying much of that kind of stuff but are sticking to the necessities, there is definitely inflation out there, and a fair bit of it.

 

[W2R]

The deflation is largely in the big ticket discretionary stuff that people can live without in tough times.

Maybe I am not looking at the right things, but I am not seeing it even in the big ticket discretionary stuff. However I am seeing lower prices for:

(1) gasoline, and
(2) houses

around here, compared with last summer. Nationwide, these prices would appear to be significantly lower.

 

[ziggy29]

Maybe I am not looking at the right things, but I am not seeing it even in the big ticket discretionary stuff. However I am seeing lower prices for:

(1) gasoline, and
(2) houses

around here, compared with last summer. Nationwide, these prices would appear to be significantly lower.

Maybe -- but $2.50 a gallon for gas is only "lower" in the context of a short-term speculative spike in the price and spikes related to Katrina and other hurricanes in the Gulf in 2005. If you smooth out a curve over time, it appears the long term trend is still up.

And as for houses, once you already own one, falling home prices do little or nothing to improve your cash flow or lower your cost of living. That's different from, say, food and energy prices, or other goods most households constantly consume.

 

[W2R]

Maybe -- but $2.50 a gallon for gas is only "lower" in the context of a short-term speculative spike in the price and spikes related to Katrina and other hurricanes in the Gulf in 2005. If you smooth out a curve over time, it appears the long term trend is still up.

And as for houses, once you already own one, falling home prices do little or nothing to improve your cash flow or lower your cost of living. That's different from, say, food and energy prices, or other goods most households constantly consume.

That's for sure. Doesn't help me much, personally, this summer. I don't even use much gas and I am not selling my house until after ER.

 

[Bikerdude]

Besides homes taking longer to sell at reduced prices, some workers having their hours trimmed, and the casino's take down, the most telling is the CT state budget deficit of over 8.5 billion dollars (annual budget of 23 billion) for the next two years. Being a "blue state" controlled by the dems I don't see budget cuts as the probable solution. That leaves only one alternative and that does not bode well for future growth.

 

[Gumby]

To report on my own (former) industry -- the major national/international law firms (including my former NYC firm) have been regularly laying off associates and support staff for the last 8 or 9 months, and reducing salaries for those remaining. In many cases, recent law school grads who were expecting to start as first-year associates in September will not start until 2010, if at all.

Another observation -- the young wife and I just returned from our annual two weeks' sojourn in Maine. It seemed far less crowded than in years past. I think more people are enjoying a "staycation" this year due to financial fears.

 

[W2R]

New Orleans really hasn't experienced many effects of the recession.

The tourist industry (hotels, restaurants, etc) is not having problems:
New Orleans CityBusiness -- The Business Newspaper of Metropolitan New Orleans

And, we had no decline in Mardi Gras business either:
Recession Doesn't Keep Away Mardi Gras Revelers - New Orleans News Story - WDSU New Orleans

With the efforts to (slowly) rebuild New Orleans, we have had less of an unemployment problem than most areas.

To me it seems like we were so bad off before (due to Katrina) that even the recession is a big improvement.

I spoke too soon. Today this article states that the Port of New Orleans is closing at noon on Tuesdays and Fridays, instead of closing at 5 PM, because there has been less cargo to handle due to the recession.

 

[CuppaJoe]

Interesting geography lesson, Martha. The St. Lawrence Seaway has lots of room for retiree yachts? As a recent retiree I feel well off, income more than covers expenses.

The neighborhood I live in has many apartment buildings; the residents skew young and many appear to be law or grad students; most commute to the financial district, some to a nearby tech-land. I can see a lot of empty apartments but this is summer, a better test will be October. They say you can get a 10% reduction in asking rents but the rents here are outrageous.

A recent puzzling phenomenon is that there has been an increase in the number of coffee shops and a downgrading of restaurants to coffee shop/restaurant combos where people can hang out all day with their laptops. I believe this is because there may be more people around during the day. Besides students, maybe unemployed office workers are hanging out during the day? Maybe it just reflects the trend to work at home some or all workdays? My neighbor is moving after a couple of years here, she did not find a job in her field so is going for more education elsewhere. I can tell that two people I see around are like me, recently retired.

We haven’t been eating as out much lately but when we do, the lines aren’t there anymore except for those coffee shop/lunch combo places at lunch time. New Year’s Eve, we got right in, to a good view table. But with summer here, the tourists seem to be back. I resorted to buying theater/opera tickets in advance because they were selling out. People seek out more entertainment during a recession or maybe the venues do fewer performances (like the airlines)?? Went to a couple of movies on opening day, they were uncrowded, even “Up!.” Pet peeve: one theater is assigning seating which is really annoying when there are only a few of handfuls of ticket holders and they all want to sit in the same row, texting. We had to move, having our choice of about 200 seats.

----

Went into today’s newspaper to search on “recession” but there was no need to hit the search button because on the front page was this story. The link is titled, “Reefer-growing madness.”

Cartels' pot cultivation explodes in state parks as the gov't cuts jobs, services.

Mexican growers having big pot year in state

Searched again for something more local. This is of some interest because the area has a tourist-based economy:

City Insider

Opponents say the fee to generate about $3 million a year is a burden in a recession, will force them to pay for some services they already handle and will be ineffective in dealing with homeless panhandlers.

 

[Leonidas]

The New York Fed recently did a write up on the Yield Curve as a leading indicator for recession. Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator - Federal Reserve Bank of New York Several different groups have looked at this as far back as the big bad recession of 1858 and found the model to be accurate.

If you believe what they're saying, the recession will be a thing of the past by 2010 and the economic recovery is already underway.

Seems like a case of cheerleading, because they didn't release this information back in 2007 to confirm that we were nosediving off into recession land. But we all know the recession will end, they always do, it's just the when that would be nice to know. So, the when in this case seems like not too far away.

 

[ziggy29]

If you believe what they're saying, the recession will be a thing of the past by 2010 and the economic recovery is already underway.

I think the recession might well be over, at least technically, though I don't see any catalyst for strong growth. And without that, even if a recession is technically over, it may still feel like one with unemployment in the 10% range for a while. That would be the so-called "L-shaped" recovery and one I have to think is the most likely.

 

[crazy connie]

We all see it in the news. Here is a hidden one that I almost missed. A few years ago I did a search on what assistance was available for a very dear friend who has passed on now. She was in her 80's and just getting by and her ability to stay independant was why I did the search. At that time the only thing she qualified for was charity food boxes from the religious groups or by lack of income food stamps. As she ate like a bird and I cooked most of her meals I scrapped that idea. But last week I read about the American Red Cross and it's declining revenues. It got me to thinking about the charities in general. Well, over the weekend I searched for food programs again. In Phoenix most are now getting USDA support and require financial application and records for emergency food.

Stop and think, anyone can have a financial short fall. It used to be you could get a weeks groceries with no questions asked. Now, you have to justify the need.

With the charities all running short what will a Natural Disaster look like? How long till we as a nation can refuel the Red Cross, Salvation Army, Toys for Tots?

 

[Sam]

Two of my friends are out of work because their company went out of business. One hi-tech in Houston, one manufacturing in Santa Ana.

Sam

 

[Ronnieboy]

I read more about the recession than see evidence around here. Local restaurants are crowded, new ones opening up. Stores always busy, maybe a little less so but still lines.
DW and I have been looking for a house (since prices are 50% or more off) and there seems to be multiple bids on homes when they get down in our price range.

 

[haha]

This year I've had more work than usual at my part-time gig though. Hope it continues, but I have felt somewhat worried about future financial security since the crash and am now applying to a graduate certificate program. No more ER for me!

What are you studying?

Ha

 

[Westernskies]

Without the Air Force Base and the universities, not sure there would be a city here.

Khan, I grew up in Huber Heights, many fond memories from my childhood there. Was back in Dayton a couple of months ago on business and couldn't believe the changes. Dayton used to be a thriving middle class manufacturing town, now it is becoming a mini-Detroit. Sad to see.

Like Springsteen sang:'' ...These jobs are going, boys and they ain't coming back..."