Independent
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- Oct 28, 2006
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Sam,
I put this table together from a few pages in the 2011 budget at FY 2011 President's Budget - Historical Tables
Note that the increase from 2006 to 2014 is driven by three big items: Social Security, Medicare, and Interest.
I'd guess that the Boomers aging into SS & Medicare is driving almost all of the increase in the first two. So, if you want to go back to 2006, you need to reduce per person spending on older people - that is, cut SS and Medicare benefits below 2006 levels.
As you pointed out, interest is a problem. Since it is expected to go up, we need to find additional cuts elsewhere. This is a line item where we can't go back to 2006 levels.
And then, the 2006 budget wasn't balanced anyway, so we would actually need to get below 2006 spending.
(I'm guessing that some of the increases in Individual Income Tax, Medicaid, and Direct Payments to Individuals are driven by the new health bill which increases taxes, increases the number of people who will qualify for Medicaid, and provides subsidies for individuals buying private health insurance. But I haven't chased the numbers to see how significant those items are. I'm also assuming that in this presentation, the net is approximately zero.)
So, with this next level of detail, where would you cut?
I put this table together from a few pages in the 2011 budget at FY 2011 President's Budget - Historical Tables
Note that the increase from 2006 to 2014 is driven by three big items: Social Security, Medicare, and Interest.
I'd guess that the Boomers aging into SS & Medicare is driving almost all of the increase in the first two. So, if you want to go back to 2006, you need to reduce per person spending on older people - that is, cut SS and Medicare benefits below 2006 levels.
As you pointed out, interest is a problem. Since it is expected to go up, we need to find additional cuts elsewhere. This is a line item where we can't go back to 2006 levels.
And then, the 2006 budget wasn't balanced anyway, so we would actually need to get below 2006 spending.
(I'm guessing that some of the increases in Individual Income Tax, Medicaid, and Direct Payments to Individuals are driven by the new health bill which increases taxes, increases the number of people who will qualify for Medicaid, and provides subsidies for individuals buying private health insurance. But I haven't chased the numbers to see how significant those items are. I'm also assuming that in this presentation, the net is approximately zero.)
So, with this next level of detail, where would you cut?
Income & Spending | 2006 | 2014 | Increase |
Individual IT | 7.9 | 8.8 | 0.9 |
Corp IT | 2.7 | 2.4 | (0.2) |
On Budget Social Ins | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
Social Security | 4.6 | 4.4 | (0.2) |
Excise | 0.6 | 0.5 | (0.1) |
Other Receipts | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
Total Income | 18.2 | 19.0 | 0.8 |
National Defense | 3.9 | 3.7 | (0.2) |
Nondefense: | |||
Social Security | 4.1 | 4.6 | 0.5 |
Medicare | 2.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 |
Other Direct to Individuals | 3.3 | 4.1 | 0.8 |
Medicaid | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
Other Individuals thru States | 0.7 | 0.7 | (0.1) |
All other grants | 1.2 | 1.0 | (0.2) |
Net Interest | 1.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
All Other | 1.7 | 1.3 | (0.4) |
Undistributed offsetting receipts | (0.5) | (0.5) | 0.0 |
Total nondefense | 16.1 | 19.2 | 3.1 |
Suplus (Deficit) | (1.8) | (3.9) | (2.1) |