2019, the year you couldn't lose money if you tried

[Fermion]

I like this. Even if you had invested in hog futures in 2019 you would be up 18%.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/31/business/2019-markets.html

 

[mrfeh]

I like this. Even if you had invested in hog futures in 2019 you would be up 18%.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/31/business/2019-markets.html

We have a fairly vanilla portfolio (boglehead-like, with SCV tilt), and yes, everything is up quite a bit:
short term bonds: 6%
total bond: 9%
total US: 30%
total ex-US: 22%

Don't think I'll see calendar year returns like this again for a very, very long time...

 

[nancyfrank232]

It was impossible to lose money this year

Unless you bet on pot stocks

 

[NW-Bound]

Do you get your Uber driver recommending stock tips to you, the same as taxicab drivers talked about dot-com stocks in 1999?

Well, maybe they don't. Everyone already knows you simply cannot lose if you buy FAANG stocks.

There were days when the market went up and I did not. So, I looked and indeed it was because I did not have any of these stocks.

PS. Just learned you can buy FAANG in an ETF. Why have the extra chaff when you can have just the "cream of the crop"? They constitute a huge chunk of greater than 25% of the Nasdaq.

PPS. There is another acronym that also includes Microsoft and Nvidia. Hey, that's good because it's diversification, right?

 

[LRDave]

Unless you bet on pot stocks

That is a long play.....

 

[ER2B]

I lost in 2019. Mostly opportunity loss since I moved a big chunk of my fixed accounts from bonds to CDs about 2 years ago. The dilemma now is when to go back to bonds. With my luck, bonds will revert to the mean after I move. Lesson learned for me: never guess where interest rates are going.

 

[JustCurious]

Lesson learned for me: never guess where interest rates are going.

I think it's fun to guess where interest rates are going, I do it all the time...the trick is not to take any action based on your guesses.

 

[street]

I lost in 2019. Mostly opportunity loss since I moved a big chunk of my fixed accounts from bonds to CDs about 2 years ago. The dilemma now is when to go back to bonds. With my luck, bonds will revert to the mean after I move. Lesson learned for me: never guess where interest rates are going.

Buy and hold, Baby!!! There no guess work in that. I'm not knowledgeable enough to start messing with money, I'd lose it all if I tried to maneuver it from here to there. Lol

Good Luck

 

[walkinwood]

In 1999, I thought I was a stock picking genius. But I soon learned my lesson.

I wonder how many people will feel that way after a year like we just had.

 

[REWahoo]

I lost in 2019. Mostly opportunity loss since I moved a big chunk of my fixed accounts from bonds to CDs about 2 years ago. The dilemma now is when to go back to bonds. With my luck, bonds will revert to the mean after I move. Lesson learned for me: never guess where interest rates are going.

Market timing comes in all shapes and sizes but the end result seem to be remarkably consistent.

 

[REWahoo]

In 1999, I thought I was a stock picking genius. But I soon learned my lesson.

I wonder how many people will feel that way after a year like we just had.

+1

The longer we go (from 2009) without a serious correction the harder the lesson is going to be for all those new stock picking geniuses.

 

[MichaelB]

It was impossible to lose money this year

Unless you bet on pot stocks

That is a long play.....

Those dreams all went up in smoke.

+1

The longer we go (from 2009) without a serious correction the harder the lesson is going to be for all those new stock picking geniuses.

+2

 

[NW-Bound]

Someone just said "smoke"?

temptation, temptation, temptation
oh, temptation, temptation, I can't resist.
I know that she is made of smoke
but I've lost my way
she knows that I am broke
but I must play
temptation, temptation, temptation
oh, whoa, temptation, temptation, I can't resist.

 

[audreyh1]

I think it's fun to guess where interest rates are going, I do it all the time...the trick is not to take any action based on your guesses.

Yeah, I’m usually wrong, so I sit on my hands except fo rebalancing.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^^ I dunno. Maybe you would do better if you never rebalanced.

 

[audreyh1]

+1

The longer we go (from 2009) without a serious correction the harder the lesson is going to be for all those new stock picking geniuses.

We did have multiple serious corrections. A year ago equity indices were down just barely shy of 20% which is as serious as you can get without going full bear market.

 

[REWahoo]

We did have multiple serious corrections. A year ago equity indices were down just barely shy of 20% which is as serious as you can get without going full bear market.

I should have said "serious bear market".

 

[audreyh1]

^^^^ I dunno. Maybe you would do better if you never rebalanced.

I prefer to maintain a consistent risk profile.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ But if I were 100% in the market since Day One, even if I were to lose 50% in a crash, I would still have more than what I have now.

 

[RetireAge50]

6 more minutes to go

 

[audreyh1]

^^^ But if I were 100% in the market since Day One, even if I were to lose 50% in a crash, I would still have more than what I have now.

I don't care about maximizing long term returns. Steady 50/50 is good enough for me. Much less year-to-year volatility yet high enough equity exposure to beat inflation in the long run.

 

[NW-Bound]

Yes. People have different philosophies.

There are posters here who hold only government bonds and CDs. Your 50/50 mix is too volatile for them.

 

[Jerry1]

Well, the year is over for the market. I'm very happy. Of course I always have that feeling like I missed out because I wasn't in all equities, but with my 60/40 portfolio, we ended up spending as we wanted and still ended the year with more than we started. In fact, we added a little more than a year's worth of spending to our Net Worth. Now, just looking for no worse than calm for the future, as unlikely as that may be.

 

[aaronc879]

Due to one very bad investment I was barely in the positive for the year. Never investing in an individual stock again.

 

[Fermion]

I only lost money in one account, a smallish IRA where I tried my hand at a few S&P500 puts middle of the year. Lets just say that was not the best of plans. At least I offset this by making over 130% in another IRA.