47, Married with 3 kids, Desire to RE, but not sure

ERasap

Dryer sheet wannabe
Joined
Nov 17, 2019
Messages
13
Hello! My first post here, but I have been lurking and reading other posts for a year or so.

I work in a high stress industrial facility. The industry goes through periods of decent profitability, then slowdown and layoff. I go home each night hoping not to get a phone call that something has gone awry, leading to a major injury, or facility damage. I pray that we wont have another layoff and I will have to send people home. Or that my boss wont get pissed off and tell me to fire someone for his own vanity reasons. (yes, it happens)

However, the pay is good, and they have managed to box me in with long term incentives. I have also been asked to relocate too many times, and my family is at the point they just want to stop moving. The largest incentive that I had vested last month, dramatically reducing the LTI.

There is a window that will open in Q2 2021 for me to leave with minimal long term incentives still open.

I am late 40s, My wife is early 40s, and we have 3 kids. One will start college in 2 years, another in 5 years, and the third in 8 years.

Just discovered the idea of FIRE in 2018. I always had the idea that I had to work till I was 60+. The idea that I could quit the daily grind much earlier was amazing. Now the question is how fast we can get there, and trying to understand the unknowns.

My goal has been to save $40k for each of the kids for college. This will pay for almost all tuition and fees for a mid-range state university if they stay at home and commute. There are several very good choices within a 30-45 minute drive of our current home. I will still be on the hook for cars, insurance, etc. I have told the kids that if they stay at home and go to one of these universities, they can go with minimal expense to themselves and graduate with no debt. If they want something fancier, then they need to get scholarships or loans or figure it out. My dad taught me when I went to College (Engineering) that the degree gets you a job, no one asks after that, and you get what you earn. He was very correct on this.

The past years have been good to us financially, but we have always been somewhat frugal. We never overspent on a house. We have generally had new cars every 5 years (don't know that I will ever buy another new car). Savings and debt elimination has always been a priority. Now that we understand that FIRE is a real possibility, we have kicked it into overdrive. We have found new ways to cut costs, and increase savings each step of the way.

Currently:

Annual Income: $330k
Annual Savings: $150k+
Maximize 401k each year ($19k) + 6% company match
Maximize HSA each year - no withdrawals, pay out of pocket.
2020 will be an extra ~50-60k in take home due to an LTI payout.

$2.59M net worth
$404k home paid off in 2019.
Two 5 year old cars, one MiniVan and one Chevy Silverado.
$90k towards the $120k college savings goal
$132k in Roth IRAs
$660k in brokerage accounts
$1.2M in 401ks
$90k in various cash accounts/CDs, etc.
$19k life insurance policy value
$40k in HSA

no debt except CC that is paid off monthly.
we use CC for every expense that we can and take the monthly cash back.

Expenses:

I use MINT, so I have history, but:

I am having difficulty figuring this out because of company relocation in 2 of past 3 years. The company provides some compensation for misc expenses, and there are always costs in moving that aren't reimbursed such as new wood floors in new house ($12k), misc. repair expenses ($5k), misc furniture, etc. None of this will be ongoing, but its part of setting up a new household.

The other factor is uncertainty on property taxes. Without any exemptions, it would be $13k per year. However, we bought the house well below tax appraisal amount(so have a strong case for appeal of the appraisal in 2020), and we will get a standard exemption. So, I am hoping this can end up around $8k per year. (No income tax here, but property tax is ridiculous) Hopefully around March we will have this resolved.

With all this, cost looks like this:

Food: $16,000
Utilities: $7,500
Mobile Phones(4): $1,284 (Total Wireless is awesome)
Auto Insurance+Umbrella+SidebySide: $2000
Property Tax $9000
Home Insurance $2900
Auto fuel $1200
Cash: $2400
Entertainment: $2400
Pet: $700
Misc Shopping: $24000
Health Care - maybe $1k
Life Insurance: $1k
Total: $72k

However, we know this will go up as kids start college/driving/etc.

Of course there is health care. I checked the HealthSherpa website. If we can stay below a $70k MAGI, we could have a decent plan with 100% coverage. I think the $70k is doable if we only have modest income from the brokerage funds.

Once kids leave the nest, we will downsize the house/taxes/etc. and plan to travel a lot more.

Our goal has been to get to $2.5M in investments/cash (excluding the college funds, which we want to fully fund before RE), with around $1M in after tax brokerage funds to be able to fund $100k at a 4% withdrawal rate. $3M would be more comfortable. However, I am not sure I want to put in the extra couple years that would be required.

I have run simulations many times, and with an $80k SWR, a 2021 exit seems to work with 95% success.

Another option is for one of us to get a less stressful job that provides a modest income and health care.

I am optimistic that this is possible, but worried about the unknowns of leaving the workforce at less than 50 and with 3 kids approaching college age. This is so far from the societal "norm" that it doesn't even seem possible from a conventional standpoint. I hinted to my dad that I may leave the workforce and he just thinks I don't know what I am doing and he needs to offer fatherly advice :LOL:. Of course, he spent every penny he ever made, and has no idea what we have achieved.
 
I think you could probably do it now if you needed to.

You have ~$2,156k available... taking the $2,590k NW less $404k for house less $30k to top off college fund. $72k of expenses divided by $2,156k nestegg is a 3.33% WR... probably pretty safe.... plus you have SS on top of that.

But don't retire now.. but let the fact that you could leave at anytime inform your attitude towards work... IOW, if the worst happened and the boss fired you tomorrow your attitude can be "Oh, well... been nice knowing you... have a nice life". You're in the catbird seat... if he fires you then... so what?
 
I think you're close, but the extra year will help, especially given your expense to income ratio. Adding another 2-3 years of expenses to your bucket would be nice. At 47/48 with kids, I'd probably want to run a 99%+ success rate, not 95.

I would not include your home, the college funds, HSA, or life insurance, in your net worth (certainly not for firecalc).

You'll want to include some travel $ in your budget (most people do). Also things like furniture, repairs, etc., while they don't hit every year, they do hit, so you'll want to add a healthy swag number on top of your budget for the "stuff happens" bracket.
 
I second p4uski: you have compiled an impressive record, so would appear to be durable vis-a-vis what might be thrown at you. You have it all nailed down. Congratulations.

Three tangential observations.

1) Your $24,000 in "misc shopping" is pretty vague. I use Personal Capital, not Mint. You might want to consider a more granular breakdown of your expenses.

2) I'm roughly ten years older than you are -- and my last post here was a year ago. What is holding me back from pulling the plug is health care. We have a serious illness in the family; it arose in the past couple of years. If you exited the workforce in the near future, you would be effectively self-funding health insurance for nearly 15 years. I'm fretting about doing the same for about half that amount of time. And you are counting on the ACA surviving legal scrutiny -- and if it is struck down, you are hoping it is replaced. I have no answers. I lose sleep over HC considerations.

3) Your property taxes are crazy high. No state income tax here either, yet our property taxes seem to be about 1/8 of yours. You might benefit from moving, thereby further lowering your expenses
 
I think you're close, but the extra year will help, especially given your expense to income ratio. Adding another 2-3 years of expenses to your bucket would be nice. At 47/48 with kids, I'd probably want to run a 99%+ success rate, not 95.

I would not include your home, the college funds, HSA, or life insurance, in your net worth (certainly not for firecalc).

You'll want to include some travel $ in your budget (most people do). Also things like furniture, repairs, etc., while they don't hit every year, they do hit, so you'll want to add a healthy swag number on top of your budget for the "stuff happens" bracket.

+1. Above is well said.
 
It looks doable overall.
I would get a better breakdown of 24k misc. That is a lot of money for a miscellaneous category, unless you have a sub category breakdown.
 
I agree on the first two, but why do you think that HSA or life insurance shouldn't be included?

Mainly because they don't fall into things you can manage, or can spend freely to include in your AA/WR. But also because they are usually small and don't make a difference. I like to think of them as bonus add ons, but not if I was tallying up my "do I have enough" number.
 
Welcome!

Similar situation but...

  • A couple years older than you, 49 & DW 50.
  • One kid in college already, +2 and +6 years until the other two start their adventure.
  • Burn rate has been 90-100k per year over past three years.
  • 2.5 mil. assets - roughly 50/50 between tax sheltered and taxable
  • Wife has a decent pension that will cover 50% of our burn rate once she hits 56

Based on your numbers it feels like you are there.

I am not familiar with MINT but have used Personal Cap.. and various FIRE calculators. The most recent one that i have been using is: Flexible Retirement Planner.

I find it superior to most other tools and the biggest PROs have been allowing for granular life changes, controlling market returns over defined time periods and robust "What If" scenarios. There is a lot to this program but the online documentation is pretty good. Plus... it is free.

I suggest modeling out various market scenarios to help confirm your numbers. In addition, given your asset level your mutual fund family (Vanguard in my case) may offer a free a in-depth account review. I have used them as a sounding board to verify the various FIRE tool results and in short they usually line up with my own research and investigation.

I personally feel good about our situation and the biggest struggle has been how to transition out, be it mentally or adjustments I should make account wise prior to leaving - ex. setup bucket approach, just sell down assets as needed, setup a dividend stream & live off them, etc.. I believe there is no one ideal scenario outside of knowing that you need to be flexible in whatever direction you take to account for market ups/downs.

Slightly different family scenario where my father 'retired' early after getting into apartment rentals and sold out during the 80's boom @ 42. His advice has been be conservative and work the system to stretch your dollar - ex. credit card points and traveling. My folks travel at least 2-3 times a year and have basically flown for free the past 10 years by playing the credit card game.

Good luck.
 
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Am in a different world $$wise, but did retire a bit early.

The decision was made easier by the thought that if something went wrong, the fallback was having time/years to go back and fix it.

Nothing went wrong.

Best of luck in your decision. :flowers:
 
I agree on the first two, but why do you think that HSA or life insurance shouldn't be included?

Mainly because they don't fall into things you can manage, or can spend freely to include in your AA/WR. But also because they are usually small and don't make a difference. I like to think of them as bonus add ons, but not if I was tallying up my "do I have enough" number.

I don't think excluding them makes any sense at all... you can manage and soend them. Our HSAs are at Fidelity and can be invested in anything a tIRA can invest in.

You can withdraw from your HSA an amount equal to all unreimbused qualifying medical costs since you opened your HSA tax-free at any time of your chosing... and you can alsp use it for any future qualifying medical expenses so I don't see any point to excluding it. Same with the life insurance since the CSV can be converted to cash for spending at any time of one's chosing... no different from a bond.
 
Congrats! You have worked hard and are in an excellent position for the future. I also think your numbers work, but my only concern is health care. Given the uncertainty of ACA and the number of years until you qualify for Medicare, I might want to build in more cushion for health care premiums. But the numbers work based on your analysis, so depending so it's really a choice of trade offs for you.
 
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