52.5 and 7 years of the grind remain

BadgerNCarolina

Dryer sheet wannabe
Joined
Nov 24, 2020
Messages
21
Hi,
I have been reading for some time, but decided to dive in with a question about Roth conversions. So - I thought it was time to give some info, and say hi!

My DW and I are both 52, married 23 years now and I plan to retire in a 7 years. I work at a MC in the pharma industry and while my wife and I met in the industry, she hasn't worked for ~10 years. We have an 18 yo daughter in her first year of college, and my wife may go back to work now, but in a much lower stress type situation. College expenses should all be paid from a 529 account that we started before my daughter was born (put $20k in there 19 years ago and never put in another penny).

Financials
825K in 401(k)
22K in Roth
75K in a 409(a) deferred comp account
130K in taxable + cash
$450k equity in home (only mentioned because we may downsize and pull some out next spring)

Debt free other than mortgage/HELOC, but plan to have that paid off prior to retiring in 7 years.

My total comp takes a big bump next year, as I get my first set of vested stock bonus (3 years after starting). I will be deferring about 30% of that (should be lump sum of approx $100k-$125k), and using the remaining to pay off a HELOC, then will defer more like 80% the remaining years.

I also defer approximately 10% of salary and 20% of 'regular' bonus.

MC has a VERY generous 401k match of 11.5% if I put in 6%. So - I put in 9-10% (my max) and get approx $50k-$55k total/year.

The plan, and how much my models show us having at 59.5 -
Assuming 10% market increase and the defer/saving noted above:
$2M in 401(k)
$150K in Roth
$1.25M in a 409(a) deferred comp account
$1M in taxable + cash

So - between $4M and $4.5M in investible assets, and no debt. Again, just a model, and a lot can happen in 7 years. The model assumes 1 promotion, which could occur or I could be out of a job in 6 months - life is like that. :)

One concern - Our expenses are higher than I'd like, and I have not been successful in budget/money conversations with my DW. I expect our annual expenses (without mortgage) to be $150k to $175k in 7 years (including increased healthcare), then increasing with inflation from there.

Concurrently, I have been building a portfolio of dividend producing stocks which I plan to use to cover some expenses. The portfolio is a group of ~10 stocks, including bellwethers and some more aggressive options that return between 6%-8% per year, and have done well over time from an appreciation perspective. With $1M in that account, I expect ~60k-80k/year. My retirement accounts are in SPY and QQQ, so conservatively let's count 1% yield and add another 20k/year.

Oh - and the 409a account pays out 10% for 10 years upon retirement, so that would be ~$150k per year.

I'd like to live off the dividend income + deferred income for the first 10 years of retirement (150+60+20 = 230k, which should cover expenses comfortably) and leave my retirement accounts alone until we hit 70 and SS can replace some of the deferred income, and RMD can/will replace the rest (at 72) and more.

What am I missing?!? I know there is some risk in the model (including staying relatively aggressive in my portfolio at 52), but for now I am good with that approach. I may change that opinion as I get closer to FI, which will of course change the model some. I fully expect that we will have one (or multiple) year(s) where the market will regress and my portfolio won't advance, so I've actually not included the last 2 very positive years in the model.
Last concern for me is that in order for this to work, I will need to stay at my current company for 10 (total) years, which would actually be longer than I've ever been at a company, so that's not a given even though I am highly motivated to do so, like the job (mostly) and really enjoy my colleagues.

Okay - I'm done - thanks for any feedback or questions!
 
Welcome!

A lot of us here believe in total return rather than trying to generate a sufficient income stream. I would rather have a stock that goes up 12% with no dividend over a stock that pays a 6% dividend and goes up 4%. It may mean I have to sell some shares periodically but overall the portfolio will grow more.

Plenty of folks in your camp though.
 
Welcome!

A lot of us here believe in total return rather than trying to generate a sufficient income stream. I would rather have a stock that goes up 12% with no dividend over a stock that pays a 6% dividend and goes up 4%. It may mean I have to sell some shares periodically but overall the portfolio will grow more.

Plenty of folks in your camp though.

Thank you again for the good feedback! The plan/hope is to get both, 12% return PLUS 6% dividend. So far, my 'mock' portfolio has been able to do that, but I do know that it is easier in a mock portfolio that actual. If interested, I can show the stocks in the mock portfolio... 20 stocks at $50k a piece. The issue is that I started it last September, and so it's difficult to judge since most stocks have gone up at a high rate.
 
Welcome, Badger! I'm glad you're here. Keep coming back - you'll learn a lot and get to know some great people. By the way - pretty impressive portfolio. Sounds like you'll be more than ready financially when the time comes. ;)
 
Welcome, Badger! I'm glad you're here. Keep coming back - you'll learn a lot and get to know some great people. By the way - pretty impressive portfolio. Sounds like you'll be more than ready financially when the time comes. ;)

Thank you for the welcome and kind words!!
 
The first hurdle is your budgeting / saving rate. Not sure what your annual compensation will be but growing from 1.1M to 4M+ in 7 years will require minimal avg. 370+k annual net worth increase.

150k annual saving would sound about right. If your household annual expense is 100k for the next 7 years, that requires your combined annual comp to be above 250k.
 
Thank you again for the good feedback! The plan/hope is to get both, 12% return PLUS 6% dividend. So far, my 'mock' portfolio has been able to do that, but I do know that it is easier in a mock portfolio that actual. If interested, I can show the stocks in the mock portfolio... 20 stocks at $50k a piece. The issue is that I started it last September, and so it's difficult to judge since most stocks have gone up at a high rate.


Actually - I'll just go ahead and put it in here. Mods - if this isn't the right place for this, I apologize - please let me know and I will move.


The theory is to get high yield options from 5 areas:
30% in bellwethers for some security
20% in REITs
20% in Business Dev Companies (BDC)
15% in Master Limited Partnerships (MLP)

15% in Financial/trusts


All of these pay distributions/dividends and come with varying levels of risk. Here's my portfolio (Company, area from above pick list, YTD return, current yield):


Abbvie - (Bellwether, 10.68% return, 4.11% yield)
Verizon - (Bellwether, -10.9%, 4.84%)
MetLife - (Bellwether, 29.53%, 2.75%)
South Jersey Industries - (Bellwether, 12.46%, 4.99%)
Altria/Philip Morris - (Bellwether, 7.36, 7.86)
J&J - (Bellwether, 2.02, 2.54)


iShares US Real Estate (IYR) - (REIT, 27.75, 2.22)
AGNC - (REIT, 2.25, 9.05)
Armour Residential (ARR) - (REIT, -7.26, 12.05)
Williams Companies (WMB) - (REIT, 41.62, 5.67)


Gladstone Investment Co (GAIN) - (BDC, 67.56, 5)
Prospect Capital (PSEC) - (BDC, 58.5, 8.3)
Ares Capital (ARCC) - (BDC, 22.22, 7.3)
Main Street Capital (MAIN) - (BDC, 39.36, 5.43)


Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) - (MLP, 12.48, 8.19)
MPLX - (MLP, 41.09, 9.05)
Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP) - (MLP, -15.54, 2.66)


Sabine Royalty Trust (SBR) - (Royalty Trust, 49.48, 4.17)
Stellus Capital (SCM) - (Financial Firm, 27.24, 7.87)
Oneok (OKE) - (Financial Firm, 63.88, 5.99)


Overall, this portfolio returned 23.98%, right on pace with S&P this year and well ahead of DIA (slightly behind QQQ). The average yield is over 6%, and has some diversity, some risk and some steady players.


Thoughts??
 
Your taxable account is ~ $130k. If you do Roth conversions, it’s usually best to pay the taxes from taxable funds so you can maximize the funds you move into your Roth. You’ll be depleting your taxable cash, so you may want to consider how you’ll be beefing up the cash account so you don’t find yourself in a bind.
 
The first hurdle is your budgeting / saving rate. Not sure what your annual compensation will be but growing from 1.1M to 4M+ in 7 years will require minimal avg. 370+k annual net worth increase.

150k annual saving would sound about right. If your household annual expense is 100k for the next 7 years, that requires your combined annual comp to be above 250k.


Thanks for the input and thoughts! My current total comp is in the low to mid $400k (next year and beyond, as I mentioned next year is my first big payout from the stock - this year was more like $320k). My plan plans for modest returns in the market plus a savings rate of between 25 and 50%, depending on the year.
 
Your taxable account is ~ $130k. If you do Roth conversions, it’s usually best to pay the taxes from taxable funds so you can maximize the funds you move into your Roth. You’ll be depleting your taxable cash, so you may want to consider how you’ll be beefing up the cash account so you don’t find yourself in a bind.


Got it - so would you recommend I build the taxable accounts first rather than do the conversion now?? My plan expects for some bonuses that could lead to more growth in the taxable accounts, but of course nothing is certain until I actually RECEIVE the bonuses! ;0)
 
T The plan/hope is to get both, 12% return PLUS 6% dividend.

You are proposing to make a bunch of sector bets in hopes of beating the broad market. You may be right, and this may pay off handsomely. OTOH, it may all end very badly. None of us can know which.

Good luck.
 
... Overall, this portfolio returned 23.98%, right on pace with S&P this year and well ahead of DIA (slightly behind QQQ). The average yield is over 6%, and has some diversity, some risk and some steady players. Thoughts??
Sigh. Probably all of us started this game thinking we could get rich picking stocks. Did you own this portfolio at the beginning of the year or did you build it by backtesting? Either way, past results do not predict future performance. I strongly suggest that you read "Winning the Loser's Game" by Charles Ellis, the latest edition May 2021. Read his bio on Wikipedia first.

Re dividends, what @RunningBum said. More here: https://famafrench.dimensional.com/videos/homemade-dividends.aspx

Re 12% return: fuggedaboutit. Plan for 6. Hope for a little more. Lots of talking heads looking for a reversion to the mean, IOW less than 6.

Welcome aboard and good job on your finances so far!
 
Got it - so would you recommend I build the taxable accounts first rather than do the conversion now?? My plan expects for some bonuses that could lead to more growth in the taxable accounts, but of course nothing is certain until I actually RECEIVE the bonuses! ;0)



I recommend you consider your cash levels when you do your Roth conversions. Make sure you have enough for all your needs including normal expenses, emergencies and taxes.
 
Sigh. Probably all of us started this game thinking we could get rich picking stocks. Did you own this portfolio at the beginning of the year or did you build it by backtesting? Either way, past results do not predict future performance. I strongly suggest that you read "Winning the Loser's Game" by Charles Ellis, the latest edition May 2021. Read his bio on Wikipedia first.

Re dividends, what @RunningBum said. More here: https://famafrench.dimensional.com/videos/homemade-dividends.aspx

Re 12% return: fuggedaboutit. Plan for 6. Hope for a little more. Lots of talking heads looking for a reversion to the mean, IOW less than 6.

Welcome aboard and good job on your finances so far!
I am actually not trying to beat the market, I am looking for a diversified enough portfolio that I track the market but get a strong yield.
I picked the portfolio back in Sept of '20 with the intent of watching it for the next 7 years in real time. So- does it work in good times and down times? If it doesn't, I will tweak or do something more traditional.
Thanks for the reading advice, will check it out. I have been trading for 25 years or so, with some good and some pretty bad. ;) This is only about 25% of the portfolio as well. I will watch over the next few years and see if it can work for me. If not, I will back out and be more conservative/ smart.
Thanks again all.
 
Welcome. Good to see your data and plans. I am a dividend growth investor, managing a focused portfolio of individual stocks totaling $2M-plus. It provides about 40% of our income. It has worked very well over the last 27 years, through various market ups and downs.

You look in good shape; but I caution you about yield chasing. My stocks are blue chip stalwarts mostly, dividend aristocrat types. The focus over the year has been less on immediate annual yield and more on sustained and sustainable growth of that yield through my accumulation phase and now my retirement phase (6.5 years so far). Like you, I care not for beating any market, but instead try to create a reliable stream of income. It's not the most popular approach on this list, but followers of DG principles are here nonetheless.

All the best to you and your family. Hang in there; the remaining years will fly by.

-BB
 
I am actually not trying to beat the market, I am looking for a diversified enough portfolio that I track the market but get a strong yield.
Remember that the market you are trying to beat is the total return of the market, not just the sticker price change from year to year.

I picked the portfolio back in Sept of '20 with the intent of watching it for the next 7 years in real time. So- does it work in good times and down times? If it doesn't, I will tweak or do something more traditional.
I like to do this, though I usually have to look a shorter periods. I buy exactly $100K of a portfolio on exactly the first day of a calendar quarter, reinvest interest and dividends, and let the thing run for at least two years. I think you'll have to actually purchase this portfolio idea of yours and segregate it or it will be impossible to determine total return.

Thanks for the reading advice, will check it out. I have been trading for 25 years or so, with some good and some pretty bad. ;) This is only about 25% of the portfolio as well. I will watch over the next few years and see if it can work for me. If not, I will back out and be more conservative/ smart.
OK. Ellis will argue the futility of stock picking. S&P SPIVA will give you the data to back him up (https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva/#/) and their Manager Persistence reports will show that success is pretty much a matter of luck. ( https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indexology/core/persistence-scorecard/)
 
I think you are significantly behind where you should be to meet your goal of retiring at 59, based on your current numbers. Your projections about market growth are overly optimistic in my view.

Although you anticipate major increases in compensation, where has the money you have made so far been going? What percentage of your income have you been able to save/invest to date? Do you have a firm grip on your expenses? Does your wife? Does she agree with your plan?

Finally, what if you get laid off or fired? At your new compensation level, the pressure to produce results will be high. You are a more visible target if things deteriorate. How will you reach your goal if that happens?

I would plan less optimistically for growth going forward and include at least one recession and market decline in your remaining working years. To me, you are relying too much on your future savings and an ever increasing asset market.
 
Welcome. Good to see your data and plans. I am a dividend growth investor, managing a focused portfolio of individual stocks totaling $2M-plus. It provides about 40% of our income. It has worked very well over the last 27 years, through various market ups and downs.

You look in good shape; but I caution you about yield chasing. My stocks are blue chip stalwarts mostly, dividend aristocrat types. The focus over the year has been less on immediate annual yield and more on sustained and sustainable growth of that yield through my accumulation phase and now my retirement phase (6.5 years so far). Like you, I care not for beating any market, but instead try to create a reliable stream of income. It's not the most popular approach on this list, but followers of DG principles are here nonetheless.

All the best to you and your family. Hang in there; the remaining years will fly by.

-BB

Thank you! Great to know there are others who are making the dividend strategy work, I may bother you from time to time if you don't mind as I build out my final plan! :)
 
I think you are significantly behind where you should be to meet your goal of retiring at 59, based on your current numbers. Your projections about market growth are overly optimistic in my view.

Although you anticipate major increases in compensation, where has the money you have made so far been going? What percentage of your income have you been able to save/invest to date? Do you have a firm grip on your expenses? Does your wife? Does she agree with your plan?

Finally, what if you get laid off or fired? At your new compensation level, the pressure to produce results will be high. You are a more visible target if things deteriorate. How will you reach your goal if that happens?

I would plan less optimistically for growth going forward and include at least one recession and market decline in your remaining working years. To me, you are relying too much on your future savings and an ever increasing asset market.

All good points, although I'm surprised to hear you think my market return expectations are overly optimistic. The model I'm using shows returns of ~8-12% during that time, which could be high or low. If the next 7 years are all negative returns, then I will either continue working or live on less - life is about adjustments. :)

To be clear, we haven't lived below our means as well as many (most?) of you all have over the years. I get that, and know that there is risk there. There is also always risk in employment - and while I am in a good place now, you're correct that that can change. I lost my job unexpectedly two other times in my career (in biotech/pharma, when a drug in the pipeline doesn't work, there can be problems), and while I've got many good connections, getting good jobs at 53, 54, 55 I assume can be challenging. I believe I will find work, but not likely at my current level/compensation.

Thanks for asking good questions and pressing, it helps me know where some of the soft spots may be.
 
Hi,

The plan, and how much my models show us having at 59.5 -
Assuming 10% market increase and the defer/saving noted above:
$2M in 401(k)
$150K in Roth
$1.25M in a 409(a) deferred comp account
$1M in taxable + cash

So - between $4M and $4.5M in investible assets, and no debt. Again, just a model, and a lot can happen in 7 years. The model assumes 1 promotion, which could occur or I could be out of a job in 6 months - life is like that. :)


10% returns seems too high of a number to use in your model, maybe a best case scenario but most 'experts' suggest half of that, 4-6% as a return that should be expected in the near future. I would work on the DW conversation to get your monthly costs down since it sounds like there could be some fat there. Good luck

edit - found the article that highlights a number of 'experts' with their return forecasts.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1018261/experts-forecast-stock-and-bond-returns-2021-edition
 
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10% returns seems too high of a number to use in your model, maybe a best case scenario but most 'experts' suggest half of that, 4-6% as a return that should be expected in the near future. I would work on the DW conversation to get your monthly costs down since it sounds like there could be some fat there. Good luck

edit - found the article that highlights a number of 'experts' with their return forecasts.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1018261/experts-forecast-stock-and-bond-returns-2021-edition

Okay - will play around and drop the expectations a bit. I suppose the last 2 years have made me forget a bit about the down years :). Besides - always better to be where we are now - a few hundred thousand AHEAD of plan rather than the opposite!
As for the DW and spending, I have struggled for many years and would love to say I've made progress. She isn't a CRAZY spender, just won't do the budget thing (issues with a very cheap father growing up). I have determined that in order to keep a happy home, I may need to work a bit longer and have a bigger starting number. I will take suggestions if anyone has found a way to have the conversation that actually works ;)!
 
Stay married, and you both should be in a really good position to FIRE within your time frame:) You are better positioned than I was at your age, and I now have $2.75 million in combined savings at 57 10 months.
 
Stay married, and you both should be in a really good position to FIRE within your time frame:) You are better positioned than I was at your age, and I now have $2.75 million in combined savings at 57 10 months.

HA! Thanks - I like how you think!
 
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