Actually, that guess would not be correct. Prior to ACA, insurers routinely denied policies to individuals with pre-existing conditions and rescinded policies for unfortunate individuals whose use suddenly increased.
Insurance premiums increased by more than 10% per year for the entire decade preceding implementation of the ACA.
Edit to add - this yearly report by KFF shows the progression of healthcare insurance cost in the US (exhibit 1.11). Premiums for large group family coverage rose from $5.8k in 1999 to $18.1k in 2016.
The cost of healthcare is expensive.
+1
We're not eligible for ACA subsidies and we have no access to tax-subsidized health insurance through previous employers. Fortunately, we are able to pay full price for age-rated insurance theough the ACA. However, like most older people, we are beginning to accumulate "pre-existing conditions" and do not want to see our premiums spiral out of sight as we develop increased risk for actually using the insurance.
In 2007, long before the ACA, my employer's health insurance premium rose 27% in a single year, so no, I don't believe that insurance prices will increase at roughly the inflation rate because there is absolutely no historical example of that occurring.
We are fortunate to live in California where the ACA was well implemented. My OOP is $6250, but my recent knee replacement cost me $2300 OOP and my silver plan insurance also pays 70% of my follow up PT. I probably won't reach my OOP this year.
The biggest problem for me right now is that the design of the replacement plan includes guaranteed issuance for PECs, but no mandate (continuous coverage requirements would serve as a type of mandate) which will result in the complete destruction of the individual insurance market as has happened every other time that this otherwise appealing combination has been tried.
Right now, I have minimal health issues and can afford to pay cash even for additional joint surgeries. My parents will also never need Medicaid subsidies to cover nursing home expenses. However, I could be diagnosed next week, for all I know, with a cancer or some other expensive condition that could endanger my long-term financial stability. I have car insurance, home owners insurance, umbrella insurance and I need to have access to health insurance.