America’s Downtowns Are Empty. Fixing Them Will Be Expensive.

[pacergal]

The YouTube videos I've seen from downtown Portland are scary. Along with the homeless, shoplifters who don't make any attempt to hide their thefts are a daily occurrence. I read an article where a shopkeeper said one of the shoplifters with arms full of merch, said "I'll see you tomorrow" on the way out the door. Merchants have just closed shop...as their hands are somewhat tied.

Portland is not as bad as TV makes it out to be. We go downtown for dinner sometimes. Would I go down late at night and just walk around? No. But I wouldn't anywhere else either.
Yes, there are homeless, yes there are thefts. But those in charge are working on it.
I've been to Sacramento and Seattle recently. They have the same problems. See homeless camps, panhandlers, etc.
Covid and the work from home issues exacerbated the problems, as the core workers disappeared, along with shoppers. And the decision to not sweep camps and force homeless into shelters at night allowed the problem to grow.
I am starting to see changes, which is good. Portland is a beautiful city.

 

[LateToFIRE]

Portland is not as bad as TV makes it out to be. We go downtown for dinner sometimes. Would I go down late at night and just walk around? No. But I wouldn't anywhere else either.
Yes, there are homeless, yes there are thefts. But those in charge are working on it.
I've been to Sacramento and Seattle recently. They have the same problems. See homeless camps, panhandlers, etc.
Covid and the work from home issues exacerbated the problems, as the core workers disappeared, along with shoppers. And the decision to not sweep camps and force homeless into shelters at night allowed the problem to grow.
I am starting to see changes, which is good. Portland is a beautiful city.

Of course it isn't! News isn't facts anymore (if it ever was). It's entertainment. And watching people going about their lives, playing with their kids, meeting friends for drinks, enjoying themselves isn't very entertaining. As a NY-er most of my adult life, I've gotten used to the intentional hellhole media misrepresentations. The really messy problems tend to cluster (or be contained) within certain boundaries. Want to see a homeless camp you go here, want to see streetwalkers, you go there, buy illegal drugs, go way over there (or these days simply order home delivery). It's like with protests where the camera zooms in on a dozen people yelling and screaming to make it look like a big angry crowd, and then soon as the cameras stop rolling, everybody chills, goes on break, checks their phones, etc.

 

[Fermion]

I have to disagree, Seattle is about as bad as they are making out.

I personally have seen the tents while on the bike path, several were encroaching the right of way, trash everywhere.

 

[Fermion]

This is one of the paths in Ballard where we USED to enjoy walking when we had our boat moored there.

 

[Scrapr]

Portland is not as bad as TV makes it out to be. We go downtown for dinner sometimes. Would I go down late at night and just walk around? No. But I wouldn't anywhere else either.
Yes, there are homeless, yes there are thefts. But those in charge are working on it.
I've been to Sacramento and Seattle recently. They have the same problems. See homeless camps, panhandlers, etc.
Covid and the work from home issues exacerbated the problems, as the core workers disappeared, along with shoppers. And the decision to not sweep camps and force homeless into shelters at night allowed the problem to grow.
I am starting to see changes, which is good. Portland is a beautiful city.

Thank you. We go downtown Portland about as much as "before times". Once a week or so. There is definately less foot traffic. But more than 2 years ago. We went to the Chinese garden in Old Town in 2021 & tents were right up to the enterance. The next year was better & this year was better. About a 6 weeks ago we went downtown for happy hour & listen to a friend play some background music. We were fine parking on the street and walking a few blocks. On the way back to the car we took a wrong turn & saw some drug activity a block away. So we turned around and walked a different street to the car.

My MIL lives in a Portland neighborhood. I love it. Walkable to small stores & coffee shops. Neighbors are friendly. Property taxes are a bit high for me but MIL is protected a bit by living there for 70 years.

Downtown will have to evolve & it will take a long time. I'd guess 10-15 years.

The Portland City Council has been a mess because of it's structure. Each commissioner has their own fiefdom with little oversight. A new plan was just voted in for a City manager plan & that should help a lot

 

[unclemick]

Love downtown. BUT I'm a lefthanded INTJ. Grin. We go quite often - lunch. dinner, Farmers Market and various 'neighborhoods'. I've nicknamed - 'The Lofties' - downtowners who rent shun cars - do the walk, bicycle, scooter, public transport, etc. The homeless have some really interesting stories to tell.

Heh heh heh - exotic cause I grew up in the suburbs and car culture. The Beach boys still tour.

 

[LateToFIRE]

I have to disagree, Seattle is about as bad as they are making out.

I personally have seen the tents while on the bike path, several were encroaching the right of way, trash everywhere.

Is this a city-wide scene?

 

[Fermion]

Is this a city-wide scene?

Well no. The mayor doesn't have tents in front of HIS house.

 

[tulak]

Portland is not as bad as TV makes it out to be. We go downtown for dinner sometimes.

Same for Seattle. I think it’s gotten a little bit better, but it’s still an issue.

I bike around the city and get a good visual of problematic areas. I try to avoid - or bike quickly - through those areas. It’s not as bad as portrayed, and has gotten better (less RVs and tents), but there are definitely problematic areas. It’s a big city with lots of areas that are fine.

Having said that, I am concerned in the increase in overall crime. That’s not a Seattle specific issue, but it’s definitely a bigger problem than it was in the past. Unfortunately, Seattle has seen a lot of growth in the last decade and it’s created a lot of problems.

 

[Midpack]

After extensive work travel to NYC (90's) and SF (2008-12), I fell in love with those places. Big step for a guy from AZ with a modest background. Perhaps a sign of how interesting and vibrant they were then. Also spent time in the LA area and downtown Chicago.

Today, I'd rather drive to Dothan AL for the annual Peanut Festival than get on a plane to go to any of them. Stunning what the local political leadership has allowed them to become.

Glad I was there when things were safe and interesting. Hope they get back to that point again while I'm still interested and able to return.

We moved near Chicago in 1993, DW and I spent almost every Sat & Sun there for many years, absolutely loved it. When we moved away in 2019, we probably went into Chicago about 5-6 times a year and didn’t enjoy it much - it got too congested and expensive. We also traveled to Boston, NYC, SF a lot, but not any more. I guess we’re done with our fascination with big cities, and it’s only gotten worse from what I read.

 

[tulak]

I have to disagree, Seattle is about as bad as they are making out.



I personally have seen the tents while on the bike path, several were encroaching the right of way, trash everywhere.

Saw this after my above post. I’d have to disagree. The bike trail that I use is much better than it’s been in a long time.

Ballard is a problem. It was cleaned up at one point, but a few months later people moved back in. It’s one of those hot spots that can’t/doesn’t get solved.

It’s rare to see back to back tents like in the Ballard pic. There are a handful of spots where that exists, but it’s more common to see a few tents here and there than a row of tents.

 

[garyt]

Detroit has none of the homeless encampments I've seen in the pictures posted. They've built quite a bit of condos, townhouses and lofts downtown and they command a hefty price. Seems the demand to live downtown is pretty robust. The appeal escapes me.
Lots of great restaurants downtown and it's very safe in the downtown area. It gets sketchy in some of the neighborhoods though.

 

[LateToFIRE]

We moved near Chicago in 1993, DW and I spent almost every Sat & Sun there for many years, absolutely loved it. When we moved away in 2019, we probably went into Chicago about 5-6 times a year and didn’t enjoy it much - it got too congested and expensive. We also traveled to Boston, NYC, SF a lot, but not any more. I guess we’re done with our fascination with big cities, and it’s only gotten worse from what I read.

The point some of us are trying to make is that:

(1) Really depends on your idea of "worse," and
(2) Don't believe everything you read

Some things have gotten worse, some things have gotten better, depends on what you're comparing.

Also, the experience of being a visitor is often vastly different from living in a city. For many visitors, NYC = Times Square, midtown. As a resident, I never go to those areas except maybe to catch a show now and then - I feel like a tourist myself in those parts of the city. There are literally hundreds of other parts of the city I'd rather be in. I compare NYC to 40 years ago when I first arrived - it is safer, cleaner, better run, etc., no comparison. Most of the U.S. cities I've visited past 5-10 years are markedly better than they were a couple decades ago. YMMV.

Now approaching that inflection point of the big R, I've decided big cities are not where I want to be, at least not full-time. It's not because they've gotten "worse" - like I said it is 100x better than what I originally found. No, its because I've gotten "worse": creakier, less tolerant of street noise, crowds, public transportation, etc., and more appreciative of greenery, fresh air, wide open spaces, and small town neighborly culture.

 

[Time2]

After extensive work travel to NYC (90's) and SF (2008-12), I fell in love with those places. Big step for a guy from AZ with a modest background. Perhaps a sign of how interesting and vibrant they were then. Also spent time in the LA area and downtown Chicago.

Today, I'd rather drive to Dothan AL for the annual Peanut Festival than get on a plane to go to any of them. Stunning what the local political leadership has allowed them to become.

Glad I was there when things were safe and interesting. Hope they get back to that point again while I'm still interested and able to return.

I have been 90 miles from the peanut festival for 28 years but have never went. What is it all about, what will I see?

 

[Taco]

There is an interesting "Downtown Recovery" chart here:
https://downtownrecovery.com/charts/rankings
that compares the number of people in a downtown area in March-June 2023 to the same period in 2019. Based on cell phone data.

Only Las Vegas is above 100%, meaning more active in 2023 than 2019.
Some of the cities discussed in this thread still have a long ways to go to get back to pre-COVID levels:
Seattle 57%
Portland 61%
New York 66%
San Fran 67%

 

[COcheesehead]

This guy is a great vlogger. So many interesting looks at so much of the US, but here is his ride along with a ex Chicago cop. Eye opening.
https://youtu.be/VWdsK3toLjM?si=bp8L8NDiV4ORBQFb

 

[Turbo29]

They are cleaning up "The Zone" in Phoenix after some business owners got a court order compelling the city to do so. In other areas of the city, there are many smaller encampments.



Phoenix gains leeway to clear out ‘The Zone’

 

[FlaGator]

I have been 90 miles from the peanut festival for 28 years but have never went. What is it all about, what will I see?

I don't know, I've been curious since I moved to the PH. Last kid is out of the house and I gave up the remaining volunteer commitments. So this may be the year to go. I believe I am not far west of you, so similar distance. I haven't looked in detail at the schedule to see if there is anything of interest during daylight weekdays.

https://www.nationalpeanutfestival.com/

 

[donheff]

I think DC has fared better than most big cities. What I would call our downtown is a bit like others are described, small shops gone, workers far fewer than before. The big Federal office buildings are slow to come back despite the Administration's push to get workers back in the office. But DC is by design a low-rise town, and both work centers and residences are spread around. In addition, tourism is big and seems back, so by and large the city feels vibrant. Surprising to me, several brand new, huge apartment and restaurant/entertainment areas along the Anacostia River are booming. I don't know where the all the residents come from.

Meanwhile, my leafy, restaurant packed, Capitol Hill neighborhood is back to normal. I will keep my fingers crossed that we don't get another black swan in my quickly constricting lifetime - like a dirty bomb.

 

[Midpack]

I’m still wondering if I should unload my REIT fund. It’s already taken a hit, NAV peaked 12/31/21, but I’d be surprised if all that may happen with commercial real estate is already baked in…more downside?

 

[USGrant1962]

I’m still wondering if I should unload my REIT fund. It’s already taken a hit, NAV peaked 12/31/21, but I’d be surprised if all that may happen with commercial real estate is already baked in…more downside?

I'd say it depends on what your fund holds. I would dump one that is mainly office space. But Vanguard's REIT index, for example, is only 4.3% office. REITs like data centers, health care, hotels and resorts, timber and telecom towers have little to do with downtown woes.

 

[Lsbcal]

Why would one own REITS? I guess some consider it a separate asset class.

A question to ask is how does it fit in the overall portfolio? So the answer for this asset depends on the individual's portfolio.

 

[sengsational]

Why would one own REITS? I guess some consider it a separate asset class.

Supposed to be "hard assets", and as such, have a low R-squared with other asset classes. In theory. What I've found is when investors are running scared, they jump out of everything, and everything that isn't cash goes down.


I'm wondering if a lot of the asset allocation analysis that "proved" splitting up assets into various asset classes and regularly rebalancing was using data collected before it was so easy and common for people to be able to move assets around without commissions and fees.

 

[Lsbcal]

In some testing a long time ago I concluded that specialized asset classes were difficult to move between to increase returns. At least I didn't find a way.

Yes, probably some of the game has changed due to market mechanics changing. Probably we should expect more of that I guess.

 

[audreyh1]

For the sake of simplicity and reducing non-qualified dividends I got rid of REIT funds many years ago. However the mid-cap index fund I exchanged into has quite a bit as they are a good segment of the companies out there.