Another 6.6 million new unemployed

[foxfirev5]

I think we could be at $10 trillion by July in stimulus packages.

Yeah, pretty soon we're going to be talking real money. IMHO, going parabolic in a bad way.

 

[razztazz]

I think we could be at $10 trillion by July in stimulus packages.

So I was thinking "what's the actual GDP"? I'm sure they can calculate a ballpark number of how much business continues to get done vs and how much will be pretty much zeroed out as delineated above. Just buy out that dark zone for a year. What would that cost?

 

[USGrant1962]

So I was thinking "what's the actual GDP"? I'm sure they can calculate a ballpark number of how much business continues to get done vs and how much will be pretty much zeroed out as delineated above. Just buy out that dark zone for a year. What would that cost?

U.S. GDP is (was) about $22T/year. FWIW, ~17% of that is already government spending.

And the $6.6T or $10T people are talking about includes both real spending, the $2.2 stimulus bill, and Fed liquidity actions to backstop banks, bonds, etc - most of which will not be actual spending unless everything totally collapses.

 

[foxfirev5]

U.S. GDP is (was) about $22T/year. FWIW, ~17% of that is already government spending.

And the $6.6T or $10T people are talking about includes both real spending, the $2.2 stimulus bill, and Fed liquidity actions to backstop banks, bonds, etc - most of which will not be actual spending unless everything totally collapses.

Really? Do you actually think that a huge % won't be actual spending? Long term or short term?

 

[atmsmshr]

U.S. GDP is (was) about $22T/year. FWIW, ~17% of that is already government spending.

And the $6.6T or $10T people are talking about includes both real spending, the $2.2 stimulus bill, and Fed liquidity actions to backstop banks, bonds, etc - most of which will not be actual spending unless everything totally collapses.

I am not an economist, but I think this is the key point.

The Fed is putting 'putting money in the window' for several reasons: 1) Prevent a liquidity crisis in the short term markets. 2) Raise banking reserves to keep overnight interest rates low. At near zero rates - the reserve margin is a long highway that the Fed can adjust without igniting inflation (within reason). 3) Buying high quality assets to directly inject liquidity in the markets and prevent fire sales. 4) Injecting liquidity into the world markets by holding offshore Treasuries as sovereign nations buy up dollars for a safe haven.

Congress is spreading money to prevent collapse of individual households, businesses and soon states and cities. Once economic collapse happens in any of these entities, then bankruptcies show up on balance sheets, and the destruction of capital begins. Some of that destruction is going to happen - it is just a matter of how much will occur.

At the moment - USA is the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet as far as macroeconomics.

 

[Montecfo]

From the counts of the last three weeks, a total of about 16,800,000 people have been unemployed in the last 3 weeks.

Our unemployment rate from what I can tell is between 13-14%.

This is getting really scary.

Well, don't forget hiring! Lots of hiring by stores logistics companies etc.

 

[atmsmshr]

Really? Do you actually think that a huge % won't be actual spending? Long term or short term?

Examples of not spending include: Federal Reserve holding foreign government's US treasuries as collateral and giving out a loan. Expanded banking reserves. These may be of an indeterminate duration - it took years to start to unwind QE. Also, Treasury loans to large corporations. During the financial crisis - loans like GM were paid back with interest.

 

[dd564]

52% of Americans under the age of 45 have lost their jobs or seen their hours reduced.

When the millennials start deciding to vote, there will be massive changes.

 

[VanWinkle]

52% of Americans under the age of 45 have lost their jobs or seen their hours reduced.

When the millennials start deciding to vote, there will be massive changes.

So the virus is a political(voting) problem? I never saw that coming

 

[Beststash]

When the millennials start deciding to vote, there will be massive changes.

I think you are correct. It’s was really only in 1980 when the nation started caring about tax rates, abortion, and gun control and many big hot-button issues that we’ve been talking about for the last 40 years. If you talk to Millennials, those are largely things they say they don’t care about. It’s likely we will see a shift in the conversation. Millennials are facing a totally different reality than the dominant Boomer voting block. Millennials are the first generation that are going to be saddled with debt for most of their lives. Millennials know that there’s no such thing as a job that lasts 30 years anymore. They’ll bounce from job to job. The salaries are generally not as great so their not saving, most will have college debt that they’re trying to pay off and that means that they will delay buying a house or not buy one at all. I think it’s going to be a shift that’s going to feel seismic in a few years----when they start to participate in the political process in large numbers.

 

[PatrickW]

Millennials <... snip ...>

I think it’s going to be a shift that’s going to feel seismic in a few years----when they start to participate in the political process in large numbers.

Agree, although many people in my generation (I'm 57) also had a lot of student debt, changed jobs every couple years, and a lot of us didn't make as much as our parents did.

Granted, all those factors will be more prevalent in the Millennial and later generations.

Brings up an interesting thought: will it be possible for people who are nearing (or are currently at) retirement age to protect their money if a predatory government gets elected in the future...?

 

[aiken]

That kinda sorta happens which you shut down 75% of the economy. Something that can't continue won't. It's not money vs. lives, it's lives vs. lives. A worldwide great depression will dwarf the significant suffering caused by COVID-19.



The disease isn't particularly deadly, but the bad news is it's very infectious. Let's hope and pray our scientists and medical experts can find a way to mitigate the worst case outcomes.

 

[Amethyst]

Yet another reason to encourage young people to enter skilled trades. The jobs can't be outsourced, can't be done by robots (yet) and when the SHTF, everybody needs them.

Nephew is a master Electrician, designated "Essential," and mostly works on large-scale construction and maintenance. Lots and lots of overtime.

 

[Tiger8693]

I think you are correct. It’s was really only in 1980 when the nation started caring about tax rates, abortion, and gun control and many big hot-button issues that we’ve been talking about for the last 40 years. If you talk to Millennials, those are largely things they say they don’t care about. It’s likely we will see a shift in the conversation. Millennials are facing a totally different reality than the dominant Boomer voting block. Millennials are the first generation that are going to be saddled with debt for most of their lives. Millennials know that there’s no such thing as a job that lasts 30 years anymore. They’ll bounce from job to job. The salaries are generally not as great so their not saving, most will have college debt that they’re trying to pay off and that means that they will delay buying a house or not buy one at all. I think it’s going to be a shift that’s going to feel seismic in a few years----when they start to participate in the political process in large numbers.

We were the "millennials" of our time. They too, will be the "Boomers" of their time, once they get older and have more responsibilities, IMO, of course.

 

[Chuckanut]

We were the "millennials" of our time. They too, will be the "Boomers" of their time, once they get older and have more responsibilities, IMO, of course.

Millennials have problems, no doubt about it.

But, they also have opportunities I would have loved - 30 year mortgages under 3%. My cheapest mortgage was, IIRC, about 8.5%. And they travel the world at prices I would have died for in my 20's and 30's .

 

[Tiger8693]

Millennials have problems, no doubt about it.

But, they also have opportunities I would have loved - 30 year mortgages under 3%. My cheapest mortgage was, IIRC, about 8.5%. And they travel the world at prices I would have died for in my 20's and 30's .

+1

 

[ncbill]

Maybe the Millennials will vote to increase SS retirement benefits, funded by removing the wage cap, and/or tacking on another percentage to both employer & employee.

Which would also help most of us...at little to no cost.