Any chartists, you bailing while you can.

Misterantsypants,

As you can see already, making market predictions on this forum is like playing with matches and gasoline. Rather than baiting the poor folks out there with predictions and requests for their views; why not join the 'Beat Boho' contest that is already happening and wow everyone with your market insight?

At the time being, beating Boho isn't all that hard since he's near the bottom of the pack. The real race seems to be around beating Nunnun who is just a proxy for a 'buy and hold' approach for the broad market via index funds which many on this forum advocate for.

The contest was set up for 3 years and we're currently half way through. When you come in late - like I did - it's a little harder to beat Nunnun since he's had 1.5 great years of gains behind him; but so far I've been able to stay ahead of him - so it's not impossible.

If you are thinking there is a 46% marke swing in the near term you would rocket past him with that.

Anyway, just a friendly suggestion to help you on your current thinking and allow you to put your thoughts into action.
 
Selling everything as we speak and going to cash. This feels great knowing I will miss a big down turn! Let me know when we hit a bottom so I can buy back in.

Those of you with your fancy statistics and data that say it is tough to time the market are going to miss out. I've got a chart! :dance:

Question - should I stay in cash or would it better to move to Bitcoin? Aw, what the heck. Bitcoin it is!

P.S. Humor is undervalued on this forum. :D
 
All this talk about charts (even though OP missed the obvious that it's percentages, not points that matter) aside, we have the strongest economy and highest corporate earnings in DECADES.

Stocks move on earnings and economics over the long term. In the short term, there are no doubt way too many self described chart experts that think they can predict the direction of the market, which IMHO becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy at times - at least in the VERY short term. (What a surprise..chartists think "OMG! The market is crossing this magic chart indicator - SELL!..and the market drops. Wow..who could ever call that?)

Unless the fundamentals of our economy change literally overnight, I'm of the opinion that the market will continue upwards into and through 2019 - unless the fall elections lead to a divided Congress, which the market could see as bad as that'd impact what can be accomplished in terms of continued improvements in less regulations, lower taxes, etc - all which will impact corporate profits. That said, people like OP are IMHO increasing volatility and the "stampede effect" with all their crystal balls, ouija boards and charts.

An article I read the other day on the 1,300+ point 2-day drop two weeks ago made a great point - the fundamentals of the market did not change overnight. Instead, you have short term panic sellers all following each other over the cliff. That, and computerized algorithms selling at the first sign of a downturn. All potentially bad short-term, but long term the fundamentals remain intact.
 
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Oh, I didn’t realize Ouija boards were involved. Maybe I should be paying more attention.
 
misterantsypants said:
Gonna get me flamed, but I see a reversion to the mean within months that will make 2008 look like a good year.
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I'm going to stick with spreading my assets out globally and assume that the entire world doesn't collapse.
 
misterantsypants said:
For those waiting to "jump back in", where do you keep your cash? And what percentage?
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I currently have 10% of assets in cash, in Vanguard Money Market Reserves (VMFXX). But by design, I want to be 95% invested in the markets. So, I bought last week, and am waiting for another 5% drop...we'll see...market timing's a fool's mission.
 
My post may have woke these folks up! Do not go "zippity doodah" much longer.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...downside-risk-warns-veteran-trader-2018-10-23

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...l-average-were-to-fall-5700-points-2018-10-22

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...from-the-200-day-average-2018-10-23-121034927

https://www.marketwatch.com/discove...ry/guid/ff074122-d6d4-11e8-9a5b-b48877087e4c?

Looks like the PPT showed up at noon to rescue this pig. This phony market, propped up with Fed funny money, continues.

THE FED IS BUYING ALL BONDS - problem solved.
 
misterantsypants said:
This phony market, propped up with Fed funny money, continues.
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Perhaps. That's what my coworker thought in 2008 when he dumped his stocks and bought an annuity. He made his losses permanent and missed out on a decade's outstanding gains.

"The United States recorded a government debt equivalent to 105.40 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2017. Government Debt to GDP in the United States averaged 61.70 percent from 1940 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 118.90 percent in 1946 and a record low of 31.70 percent in 1981."

When the debt load becomes unserviceable, I'll be really concerned (guessing this will be when debt = 150-200% of GDP). Problem is, no one knows when that will be. I'm thinking we have a decade or two left before we become like Greece, with debt being 178.6% of GDP (2017).
 
misterantsypants said:
Exactly, my prediction is 46% in February. But you prediction is more plausible than mine.

My plane is to leave only $800.000 in the market, take the proceeds of sold ETFs and buy a nice home or condo in Melbourne, AU at Eureka Tower, get a resident visa and rent the condo when not there. 3 months there, 9 month rented. Australian friend rents his unit for 5k per month, nice income flow.
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You confuse me more and more every post. English isn't your first language?


I'm just trying to understand if you are pessimistic in general, or pessimistic about stocks.



I think this is why most advertised investments end with "Past performance is not an indicator of future performance".



Two steps forwards, one step back.
 
HNL Bill said:
When the debt load becomes unserviceable, I'll be really concerned (guessing this will be when debt = 150-200% of GDP). Problem is, no one knows when that will be. I'm thinking we have a decade or two left before we become like Greece, with debt being 178.6% of GDP (2017).
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I subscribe to this notion. Unservicable debt will stop the party. I feel like declining/shrinking labor pool will exasperate this along with advances in automation.



Throw in a WWIII for good measure. Surely then we will get that 1920s level of Evil.
 
I'm with the OP on this one, and not because of one specific chart. There are plenty of indicators that valuations are extremely high, and that reversion to the mean is imminent. The psychology around the market has shifted a lot since the presidential election. Previously the market was "climbing a wall of worry" but now there are many who consider that the current administration has some sort of magic pixie dust that will make the market climb forever. They don't (have a pixie dust.) Most of what can be done has been done (corporate tax reform and deregulation) and it ultimately will amount to giving a shot of adrenaline to a guy who just bungie-jumped....a short term incredible jolt that will fade quickly. During the nadir of the Great Recession (March 2009) I had 86% of my net worth in the stock market, predominantly U.S. Now I'm at 20% of my net worth in stocks, and it's split roughly 60% US and 40% international. If we get a bounce in the next week or month, I'll likely lighten up even more. Perhaps there will be one more big leg up, but I'm betting we will eventually give back a huge portion of the gains made in the past 10 years.
 
A couple of quotes by eminent investment "gurus" come to mind:

"There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: Those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know." (Wm Bernstein, author and adviser)

"After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done market timing successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." (Jack Bogle, Vanguard founder)
 
If one feels strongly about their convictions, act on them, or is this post more a case of needing agreement from others before taking action?
 
RenoJay said:
I'm with the OP on this one, and not because of one specific chart. There are plenty of indicators that valuations are extremely high, and that reversion to the mean is imminent. The psychology around the market has shifted a lot since the presidential election. Previously the market was "climbing a wall of worry" but now there are many who consider that the current administration has some sort of magic pixie dust that will make the market climb forever. They don't (have a pixie dust.) Most of what can be done has been done (corporate tax reform and deregulation) and it ultimately will amount to giving a shot of adrenaline to a guy who just bungie-jumped....a short term incredible jolt that will fade quickly. During the nadir of the Great Recession (March 2009) I had 86% of my net worth in the stock market, predominantly U.S. Now I'm at 20% of my net worth in stocks, and it's split roughly 60% US and 40% international. If we get a bounce in the next week or month, I'll likely lighten up even more. Perhaps there will be one more big leg up, but I'm betting we will eventually give back a huge portion of the gains made in the past 10 years.
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@RenoJay this is not intended to be criticism of your post, but the post popped up on my tablet the other evening as I was re-reading Nate Silver's "the signal and the noise." I was on the page where he says
"There is reason to suspect that of the various cognitive biases that investors suffer from, overconfidence is the most pernicious ... economist Terrance Odean of US Berkeley constructed a model in which traders had this flaw and this flaw only. Otherwise they were perfectly rational. What Odean found was that overconfidence alone was enough to disrupt an otherwise rational market."

​
The point of course is that even if you are not personally overconfident, your arguments are based on the almost-certainly-flawed idea that the market is rational.
 
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