Best CD, MM Rates & Bank Special Deals Thread 2023 - Please post updates here

Status
Not open for further replies.
Larry Fink says recession is basically a nothingburger. To me recession is a financial media hype creation to help TV ratings. He says 4% inflation will be a floor. 4% is the new 2%. But then again like Lebowski says everyone’s got an opinion
Well we are well under 4% since last June. And full year Producer Price Index just reported at 2.7%.
 
We actually need less than 2% for years to make up for the massive inflation over the last couple years. 4% going forward would be devastating, because that adds on to the exceptionally high inflation what we've already had. That does NOT mean prices will go down, but will continue to go up quickly.

But we had 12 years of 1-2%... Fed spent most of that time worrying about the real villain De-flation.

And as far as the exceptionally high inflation, this was nothing. I can tell you missed the 70s and 80s.

Inflation usually does not go below 1% except in economic contraction... Or a credit debacle. I think moderate inflation is preferable over either of those.

;)
 
But we had 12 years of 1-2%... Fed spent most of that time worrying about the real villain De-flation.

And as far as the exceptionally high inflation, this was nothing. I can tell you missed the 70s and 80s.

Inflation usually does not go below 1% except in economic contraction... Or a credit debacle. I think moderate inflation is preferable over either of those.

;)
12 years of 1% (not 2%) would definitely help make up for the massive excess inflation in recent years. But any inflation at all means prices will go up, and they are already too high.

I didn't miss the 70's and 80's, but I was young and not working most of those years and didn't have investments back then. This recent high inflation has been devastating to the value of my investments and to many others. Just saw a poll that 70% of Americans are feeling financial stress.
 
So your thinking won the war on inflation? The Fed should stand down? Fink said the infrastructure & chip stimulus will be significant. Marketwatch had an article about CDs in the 5% range being available & the opportunity won’t last long to buy them. When marketwatch & main stream financial media starts pumping anything the contrarian bells start going off. Guess we’re gonna find out if the golden hour is over or if there’s more to come. Thank you for your input & opinions.
 
Best CD, MM Rates & Bank Special Deals Thread 2023 - Please post updates here

But wouldn't times with 4% inflation also mean that COLAs would be about 4% too? How would that send people to the poor house?



Please tell my cola lite pension that it’s cap needs to be raised. I hope they listen.
 
COLAs? Who?

Many pensions don't have COLAs. Many don't have pensions. Young people rarely have a chance at pensions.

COLAs don't solve inflation. They are inflationary.

And it isn't all about the retired people. Inflation is devastating for the young working. Sure, they may get a raise, but saving becomes very difficult, especially if bank rates continue well below inflation rate.


4% forever would be brutal.
 
But we had 12 years of 1-2%... Fed spent most of that time worrying about the real villain De-flation.

And as far as the exceptionally high inflation, this was nothing. I can tell you missed the 70s and 80s.

Inflation usually does not go below 1% except in economic contraction... Or a credit debacle. I think moderate inflation is preferable over either of those.

;)

This is modern "thinking" that has been perpetuated by many. Theoretically, inflation is necessary when an economy is not running at its maximum capacity, either because of a surplus supply of labor or other resources. Keynes pushed for this as a way to prevent the "paradox of thrift", where decreasing prices would cause consumers to delay purchases (waiting for even lower prices) thus causing an economy to falter due to lessened demand. Thus, the solution was to increase the money supply to stimulate demand.

This is also somewhat the basis behind the idea of the Phillips curve, where rising unemployment could be offset/prevented by increasing inflation. (The 1970's would disagree.)

While I'm not a particular fan of Keyne's, it should be noted that things like increased government spending in response to a recession (part of Keynesian Economics) is NOT the same as running huge/increasing deficit when the economy is NOT in recession. (Keynesian Economics would suggest that government should be running a surplus (not deficit) when the economy is in expansion).

I would also point out that one of the best era's for economic growth in the United States (known as the Gilded era) included a prolonged period of declining prices (1873 to 1879) where prices declined and real GDP increased about 7% per year.

The "Inflation is good" mantra is (I believe) bull, and is a way to transfer wealth from savers to debtors.
 
Last edited:
This is modern "thinking" that has been perpetuated by many. Theoretically, inflation is necessary when an economy is not running at its maximum capacity, either because of a surplus supply of labor or other resources. Keynes pushed for this as a way to prevent the "paradox of thrift", where decreasing prices would cause consumers to delay purchases (waiting for even lower prices) thus causing an economy to falter due to lessened demand. Thus, the solution was to increase the money supply to stimulate demand.



This is also somewhat the basis behind the idea of the Phillips curve, where rising unemployment could be offset/prevented by increasing inflation. (The 1970's would disagree.)



While I'm not a particular fan of Keyne's, it should be noted that things like increased government spending in response to a recession (part of Keynesian Economics) is NOT the same as running huge/increasing deficit when the economy is NOT in recession. (Keynesian Economics would suggest that government should be running a surplus (not deficit) when the economy is in expansion).



I would also point out that one of the best era's for economic growth in the United States (known as the Gilded era) included a prolonged period of declining prices (1873 to 1879) where prices declined and real GDP increased about 7% per year.



The "Inflation is good" mantra is (I believe) bull, and is a way to transfer wealth from savers to debtors.
Well, it is not a new idea. It is what central bankers believe.

And I am pretty sure today's economy is not similar to the gilded age, when productivity was rising rapidly due to industrialization triggering modest inflation in an expanding economy.

More often people think of situations like the depression when deflation drove an already sluggish economy into a devastating cycle of contraction.

It is bad for both stocks and bonds.

No central banker wants to risk that but they of course may be wrong.
 
Well, it is not a new idea. It is what central bankers believe.

...
No central banker wants to risk that but they of course may be wrong.

Yes, I know it is what they believe. The follow up question should be what is the result of that belief?

The same central bankers whose monetary actions have caused the purchasing power of the US $ to fall from $1 to under 4 cents today? (1913 to today, since the federal reserve was created).

The same central bankers who devised a stress test that assumed that interest rates would remain low?

Those geniuses?

I am not naïve enough to believe what I think matters to the those in charge, or that I am able to persuade even a tiny number of people that it is not a good course. But then again I can assess (rightly or wrongly) the results of the game being played. Having no/low inflation requires discipline and we haven' t had it, don't have it, and won't have it (until it is way too late).
 
2018 someone on this site posted Navy Federal CU was paying 3.5 for 5 year CD and I bought it. I have 1 year and 4 months until my commitment is done without penalty. They let me move to a 4.5% 18 month without penalty. I was thinking others may have the same 5 year CD, easy move, no paperwork done over the phone.
 
I was finally able to upgrade some older lower rate share certificates without penalty at Andrews FCU, otherwise my penalty would have been 180 days and not worth it. I believe the requirement is to rollover to a share certificate of 24 months or longer, and they will waive the EWP, but you have to contact customer device to do this. I had success sending a detailed message to “Account Maintenance”.

Someone some had posted a discussion of this unadvertised option on depositaccounts.com on another thread. Some people have had success, others not.

Thanks for this, Audrey. I called Andrews a few months ago, to take the 180 day penalty to get out of a 3.05 % CD. They told me I had to take the penalty, withdraw the funds from Andrews, then reinvest it as 'new money'. They said a 'specialist' would call me with details, and no one ever called. I did not pursue it further. But with your success, I may try emailing 'account maintenance'. Would be cool to avoid the penalty.

edit to add : I found a message from Andrews to me, when I logged onto the website, from months ago when I first asked about early withdrawal. They did that instead of calling. The message said the penalty would one year of interest ! Wow, even worse than I thought.

Still, I might try my luck again, and see what happens.
 
Last edited:
I found with Andrews FCU the best way to get your money out is by ACH pull initiated from the outside, otherwise they have very limited ways to get sizeable funds out.
 
Thanks for this, Audrey. I called Andrews a few months ago, to take the 180 day penalty to get out of a 3.05 % CD. They told me I had to take the penalty, withdraw the funds from Andrews, then reinvest it as 'new money'. They said a 'specialist' would call me with details, and no one ever called. I did not pursue it further. But with your success, I may try emailing 'account maintenance'. Would be cool to avoid the penalty.

edit to add : I found a message from Andrews to me, when I logged onto the website, from months ago when I first asked about early withdrawal. They did that instead of calling. The message said the penalty would one year of interest ! Wow, even worse than I thought.

Still, I might try my luck again, and see what happens.
Don’t use email. When you log in to your account, there is a message system. Create a new message and select “Account Maintenance” as the topic/recipient. If you tell them exactly which new certificate you want your old certificate rolled into as long as there is no fee, they will likely go ahead and do it. 24 months is the minimum duration for the new certificate without penalty for rollover AFAIK.

I have all the original documents associated with my certificates so I have proof of what the penalty was when I opened it. Sometimes they tell you wrong.
 
Last edited:
But we had 12 years of 1-2%... Fed spent most of that time worrying about the real villain De-flation.

And as far as the exceptionally high inflation, this was nothing. I can tell you missed the 70s and 80s.

Inflation usually does not go below 1% except in economic contraction... Or a credit debacle. I think moderate inflation is preferable over either of those.

;)

Reported inflation can't go back to the double-digits of the 1970s and '80s because it is measured differently nowadays........... Housing for 1.. Is a big one.
 
non-callable, 5% yield popped back up. It's a 1 year CD: CUSIP 904198BZ0
 
Reported inflation can't go back to the double-digits of the 1970s and '80s because it is measured differently nowadays........... Housing for 1.. Is a big one.
It can go back if there is enough rise in prices.

Taking out the investment portion of housing was an improvement. They need to improve it further by getting rid of the pseudo-rent and using publicly available data, in my opinion.

They are currently overstating housing inflation as it is due to their methodology.
 
Frontwave CU 5.5% one year CD, offer good till 4/30, limited locations. I jumped in when they offered 6% 18 Mo back in February.
https://www.frontwavecu.com/
This is just a saver certificate and the max that can be deposited is $6000 (12 x $500) for the year. Not worth the hassle in my opinion but others might find it useful.

I also grabbed that 6% deal. I wish it had lasted longer since I was limited on available cash at the time but I'm hoping for another great offer from them soon.
 
This is just a saver certificate and the max that can be deposited is $6000 (12 x $500) for the year. Not worth the hassle in my opinion but others might find it useful.

I also grabbed that 6% deal. I wish it had lasted longer since I was limited on available cash at the time but I'm hoping for another great offer from them soon.

Thanks - my bad on not spotting the annual limit.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom