Still seems highly probable to me that 1 to 2 yr CD's rates will be going up a bit more in the next 4 to 6 weeks. I expect Powell will raise rates .5% later this month so that should push CD's to 5.5% by mid April. YMMV
I'm planning to be re-buying by then.
I don't know if it's overblown or not... but there are opinions that the Fed painted themselves into a corner based on the last 1/4point rise. To turn around and do 1/2point now would be both a shock to the market that thinks the slope of raises has tipped over and a credibility issue ("shoulda raised 1/2point last time").
Now maybe the fed wants a little shock into the system to show they're serious given that some charts that show parts of the market are betting on the 1/2point anyway.
They're nearing the end of the increase cycle so things can get a little choppy.