Big differences between FIRECALC and New Retirement

[Koolau]

I was not and am not arguing for euthanasia; that's a separate discussion. And I agree with you that healthy folks in most cases can get better. OTOH, there are progressive and incurable fatal conditions that are not painful. All I'm saying is I can see why people so afflicted would prefer the Lord take them sooner rather than later (to use the terminology of one of my acquaintances).

Some might say the Lord wouldn't be too pleased with anyone doing His w*rk in this case.

 

[HI Bill]

The third unknown is how long you will live, I hate estimating that!
SORR will never go away.

Interestingly, for a fully diversified portfolio while using the 4% rule, it does seem to pretty much go away around 14-17 years from 'now'. So, it you're 83, and plan to live to 100, it seems as if you've beaten it! In the FIRECALC results, look at the time in years from now when the first results line crosses over the $0 value line. Your results may vary depending on age, SS, pension, etc.

 

[HI Bill]

It does vary. We must spend at least twice what we spent before FIRE. YMMV

+1! My wife and I are at ~3.6X what we were spending pre-FIRE!

 

[Koolau]

+1! My wife and I are at ~3.6X what we were spending pre-FIRE!

Ding, ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!

Seriously, when we were w*rking, we had relatively low expenses. Much of the time, we lived in the Old Homestead. We rented it from the business as DW managed the family business. That meant she could walk through the garage to w*rk and didn't need a car.

We did vacations maybe every 3 years. We maxed out on the 401(k) plus other savings. So we actually spent very little. It's kinda amazing how little you can spend and still be happy.

Our current spending is much higher because of where we live. It's a HCOL area and we are willing to pay the premium. Thus, at least 2X our old spending.

 

[LateToFIRE]

Ding, ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!

Seriously, when we were w*rking, we had relatively low expenses. Much of the time, we lived in the Old Homestead. We rented it from the business as DW managed the family business. That meant she could walk through the garage to w*rk and didn't need a car.

We did vacations maybe every 3 years. We maxed out on the 401(k) plus other savings. So we actually spent very little. It's kinda amazing how little you can spend and still be happy.

Our current spending is much higher because of where we live. It's a HCOL area and we are willing to pay the premium. Thus, at least 2X our old spending.

This is a very eye opening discussion - it simply never occurred to me that anyone would be spending a lot more in retirement (LTC issues aside).

 

[latexman]

This is going to sound morbid, but I believe in 20-30 years a lot of people will be looking for ways to go ahead and end their life rather than go into expensive long term care.

Many years ago, I asked my grandfather how he was doing. He said, "just waiting to die".

He was living with Mom and Dad then. Grandmother had passed years before with a stroke. He was well cared for, and was not thinking of expensive long term care. He was just old, wore out, not in good health/mental health (mini-strokes), and just plain old tired.

 

[Koolau]

Many years ago, I asked my grandfather how he was doing. He said, "just waiting to die".

He was living with Mom and Dad then. Grandmother had passed years before with a stroke. He was well cared for, and was not thinking of expensive long term care. He was just old, wore out, not in good health/mental health (mini-strokes), and just plain old tired.

Again, I would like to see older, depressed folks treated for their depression. YMMV

 

[latexman]

Again, I would like to see older, depressed folks treated for their depression. YMMV

Easy to say, hard to implement for a 90 y.o with diminished abilities, both cognitive and physical. I do not recall him being diagnosed with depression, and he was well cared for, and saw the geriatric Dr. frequently.

Is it depression when the end is near? I wonder.

 

[Koolau]

Easy to say, hard to implement for a 90 y.o with diminished abilities, both cognitive and physical. I do not recall him being diagnosed with depression, and he was well cared for, and saw the geriatric Dr. frequently.

Is it depression when the end is near? I wonder.

I've seen both. Folks ready to go and happy. Folks ready to go and unhappy. The unhappy ones may need some help to make their last days more palatable IMHO. YMMV

 

[tmm99]

Again, I would like to see older, depressed folks treated for their depression. YMMV

True, some old folks can be depressed. And for some folks, if there is a way to alleviate the tiredness and the feeling of being worn out, that may lift their depression too.

My mom died at 95. Her body started failing her a while before then. Her mind was still intact and active, but she was physically exhausted, and she couldn't enjoy the physical things she used to be able do like walking to stores and preparing elaborate meals (she could only be standing for a short time.) He eyesight was failing as well, so she couldn't read novels or newspaoers and she could barely do her crossword puzzles. She still enjoyed watching TV, including political discussions, etc. She said she was asking God to take her every night she went to bed because she was physically exhausted and was ready for her next journey.

From my POV, she was not depressed. She was still cheerful and laughed a lot and helped her younger sister (verbal advice, etc). But she was just done with her life. It was getting just too exhausting and probably much less fun than it used to be.

 

[Retired Expat]

I am getting radically different results between these two calculators (New Retirement free version) when using the average returns toggle on NR. Anyone else? Should I split the difference in making my guesses?

The only retirement calculator I really trust : https://www.financialmentor.com/calculator/best-retirement-calculator

If the link didn’t work it is called the ultimate retirement calculator by Financial Mentor. Want to sell your home and move to a ccrc, it can handle that. Sell your vacation home at 75 por 80 and put it to your retirement savings? It can handle that. Expect a small inheritance at some point? It can account for that.

 

[Echard]

Again, I would like to see older, depressed folks treated for their depression. YMMV

You mistakenly assume that all people must be depressed to want to go ahead and end their life rather than move into long term care. That is simply not true. Another poster listed many valid reasons that have nothing to do with depression. I could list another five or six. Also, many people do not have the same religious beliefs as you, removing that concern.

Probably not a topic for another thread or further discussion here, but the only reason I bring it up is because many older people today are staring at a tough future. Some of those people would prefer 20 years of great living, rather than 35 of substandard living conditions because they have to plan for a massive LTC bill.

 

[Koolau]

True, some old folks can be depressed. And for some folks, if there is a way to alleviate the tiredness and the feeling of being worn out, that may lift their depression too.

My mom died at 95. Her body started failing her a while before then. Her mind was still intact and active, but she was physically exhausted, and she couldn't enjoy the physical things she used to be able do like walking to stores and preparing elaborate meals (she could only be standing for a short time.) He eyesight was failing as well, so she couldn't read novels or newspaoers and she could barely do her crossword puzzles. She still enjoyed watching TV, including political discussions, etc. She said she was asking God to take her every night she went to bed because she was physically exhausted and was ready for her next journey.

From my POV, she was not depressed. She was still cheerful and laughed a lot and helped her younger sister (verbal advice, etc). But she was just done with her life. It was getting just too exhausting and probably much less fun than it used to be.

A good gerontologist could likely help such a person enjoy the time they have left. With a situation of physical exhaustion, a regimen of rest throughout the day may be all that is needed to make the "up" times more enjoyable. Not being critical, but suggesting an alert and trained doctor should be able to help older folks find meaning and joy in the time they have left. I'm no expert, so YMMV.

 

[Koolau]

You mistakenly assume that all people must be depressed to want to go ahead and end their life rather than move into long term care. That is simply not true. Another poster listed many valid reasons that have nothing to do with depression. I could list another five or six. Also, many people do not have the same religious beliefs as you, removing that concern.

Probably not a topic for another thread or further discussion here, but the only reason I bring it up is because many older people today are staring at a tough future. Some of those people would prefer 20 years of great living, rather than 35 of substandard living conditions because they have to plan for a massive LTC bill.

If you reread what I said: I suggested that older "DEPRESSED" people should be treated. I agree that some folks are totally rational about wanting to end a life of misery caused by illness or worn out bodies. A good doctor should be able to separate one from the other.



While old, worn out bodies may not be treatable, most depression IS treatable.

 

[USGrant1962]

This has gotta be some of the worst thread drift ever. From a FIRECalc discussion to suicide/euthanasia - WTF?

 

[Koolau]

This has gotta be some of the worst thread drift ever. From a FIRECalc discussion to suicide/euthanasia - WTF?

When you get to be our age - you'll understand.

 

[tmm99]

A good gerontologist could likely help such a person enjoy the time they have left. With a situation of physical exhaustion, a regimen of rest throughout the day may be all that is needed to make the "up" times more enjoyable. Not being critical, but suggesting an alert and trained doctor should be able to help older folks find meaning and joy in the time they have left. I'm no expert, so YMMV.

She passed away several months after. She was ready and she finally got what she wanted, and I was happy for her.

I'm getting a feeling that you think that people naturally want to keep on living and should find a way to try to enjoy it. I think we have a choice to not want to try to enjoy life anymore as well when certain conditions they absolutely want in life aren't met. Many people tend to think any kind of living is better than dying, and that's probably true more for the people who will be left behind, but to me, it's totally fine for us to want to kind of give up, as well. I personally wouldn't want to keep on living if everything physical was taken away from me, but I will see how I feel when I'm 90+ years old. I think it's hard to draw a definite line on this anyway. People sign for a DNR order for different reasons, but that's one good example. Johnny from the film, Johnny Got His Gun, is another, rather extreme, example.

 

[tmm99]

This has gotta be some of the worst thread drift ever. From a FIRECalc discussion to suicide/euthanasia - WTF?

I'm surprised that you're surprised! I've been on this forum long enough to know that this is par for the course~!

 

[tmm99]

Has anybody tried both Right Capital Premium and New Retirement Premium? How do they compare in your opinion? I've had a chance to look at Right Capital Premium on youtube, but I am not particularly impressed.

 

[LateToFIRE]

The only retirement calculator I really trust : https://www.financialmentor.com/calculator/best-retirement-calculator

If the link didn’t work it is called the ultimate retirement calculator by Financial Mentor. Want to sell your home and move to a ccrc, it can handle that. Sell your vacation home at 75 por 80 and put it to your retirement savings? It can handle that. Expect a small inheritance at some point? It can account for that.

I'm another retirement calculator junkie - can't resist a new one, so just tried Ultimate Retirement calculator. I like it! Simple but flexible with enough ability to change variables. I think I understand the math behind the Savings needed At Retirement Age, but not quite sure - doesn't seem to be Monte Carlo Sim. But it also doesn't reflect the math from the Year End Savings Balance table.

Any thoughts on that?

 

[Koolau]

She passed away several months after. She was ready and she finally got what she wanted, and I was happy for her.

I'm getting a feeling that you think that people naturally want to keep on living and should find a way to try to enjoy it. I think we have a choice to not want to try to enjoy life anymore as well when certain conditions they absolutely want in life aren't met. Many people tend to think any kind of living is better than dying, and that's probably true more for the people who will be left behind, but to me, it's totally fine for us to want to kind of give up, as well. I personally wouldn't want to keep on living if everything physical was taken away from me, but I will see how I feel when I'm 90+ years old. I think it's hard to draw a definite line on this anyway. People sign for a DNR order for different reasons, but that's one good example. Johnny from the film, Johnny Got His Gun, is another, rather extreme, example.

I agree with everything you said here - except that "you think that people naturally want to keep on living and should find a way to try to enjoy it"



I'm just saying that many folks WOULD enjoy living with the right help from the right professionals. Obviously, some would not. I would say at least TRY to offer such help to people. YMMV

 

[Rianne]

I'm another retirement calculator junkie - can't resist a new one, so just tried Ultimate Retirement calculator. I like it! Simple but flexible with enough ability to change variables. I think I understand the math behind the Savings needed At Retirement Age, but not quite sure - doesn't seem to be Monte Carlo Sim. But it also doesn't reflect the math from the Year End Savings Balance table.

Any thoughts on that?

I don't understand how they get "income" "adjusted need" and "pretax need" in the chart. I put in twice what we really spend, 5% ROI, SS + 4% COL, and the balances seem way more than expected. I like that they don't try to predict the market, just put in a reasonable ROI and spending.

Seems overly optimistic.

 

[LateToFIRE]

I don't understand how they get "income" "adjusted need" and "pretax need" in the chart. I put in twice what we really spend, 5% ROI, SS + 4% COL, and the balances seem way more than expected. I like that they don't try to predict the market, just put in a reasonable ROI and spending.

Seems overly optimistic.

I think:

"Income" is based on your (inflated) SS/pension income, notice there is a tab to adjust when the COL adjustment starts

"Adjusted Need" is "Inflated Need" minus "Income"

"Pretax Need" is "Adjusted Need" grossed up for estimated taxes

 

[Rianne]

I think:

"Income" is based on your (inflated) SS/pension income, notice there is a tab to adjust when the COL adjustment starts

"Adjusted Need" is "Inflated Need" minus "Income"

"Pretax Need" is "Adjusted Need" grossed up for estimated taxes

Got it, I entered an extra 0 somewhere I like this one b/c bond rates are so good right now. I can go long-term with the bonds and keep 40% in equities. This gives a general ROI. I entered 5% but is probably close to 7%.

 

[thepalmersinking]

I tried Firecalc and had a 64% chance of my portfolio lasting 30 years with an average balance at the end of $1.7 million. That swing is so large that it makes me think that Firecalc is useless.