Big Drop in Life Expectancy

I'd first heard from some life actuaries that the mortality improvements we were seeing for years had leveled off due to people generally living unhealthier lives; this was at a company I left in 2012. I would have expected the worsening due to COVID but it was sad to see that a lot of the deterioration was due to drug overdoses and homicides.


I'm glad it's not my job to construct new mortality tables with post-COVID data. That's a once-in-100-years occurrence (I hope) so how much of it do you reflect in pricing for new products?
 
How the decrease in life expectancy impacts (decrease) pension liabilities and lump sum payouts will be worth following.
 
Another good reason to bump up my spend rate again.
 
This will sound horrible

This will sound horrible and if God is reading - -please sir, I'm just ranting so please no lightning bolts.

Sometimes- I question the value of living too long which I realize means different things to different people. This whole being healthy, living till 90 and a 100.....in the end, all it means is people organic'ed and Peloton'ed themselves into being healthy -- and in the end their pensions will be cut, and their Medicare *will* tell them to take the pain pill and that xyz procedure isn't worth it - - yes, rationing is going to be a fact of life there's no other way around it. And while this is happening....people will have to stay at jobs longer, which means less openings for younger workers .....combine that with Artificial Intelligence taking jobs....and it almost seems like Hunger Games will be normal for the masses one day. and for what? For busybodies to tell us not to eat fast food and not to be fat?

Also, I look at my financial situation.....sometimes it's a stretch to think I can make my money and lifestyle last till 90+. I honestly don't care if I make it to that...but I feel it's my duty to DW to see her thru till the final moment. And from an impersonal, solely financial point of view, 75-80 seems lovely. (And I realize even that is not guaranteed to anyone).

I'm 46 now, so 75 seems great. If Im 74, maybe I'd feel different about 75 :) I realize that. But I dunno ....if I could have a one on one with the Maker.....I think I'd respectfully ask for 75-80, with some reasonable aches and pains but nothing too horrible. And then - well, see what else might be out there.

means more money to spend while here, more to pass on to kids, and my goodness less old age misery.

Again if the Almighty reads this I'm thankful for life and everything, I'm not asking to be croaked. I'm thinking out loud is all.
 
I thought it was quite ironic that we finally got the update approved in the RMD tables due to increased US life expectancy right when life expectancy had suddenly wiped out 10 years of gains due to Covid.

I had previously read that in one year (2020) Covid pushed back US life expectancy to 2010 levels.

This article says Covid-19 was responsible for 74% of the 1.5 year decline given by the study.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/robert...steeper-drop-cdc-study-finds/?sh=52bfd48a2b57
 
Last edited:
MichealKnight said:
if I could have a one on one with the Maker.....I think I'd respectfully ask for 75-80, with some reasonable aches and pains but nothing too horrible. And then - well, see what else might be out there.
Click to expand...
Personally, If I could have a one on one with "The Man" (or women :)), aches and pains wouldn't be on my list at any point....
 
MichealKnight said:
This will sound horrible and if God is reading - -please sir, I'm just ranting so please no lightning bolts.

Sometimes- I question the value of living too long which I realize means different things to different people. This whole being healthy, living till 90 and a 100.....in the end, all it means is people organic'ed and Peloton'ed themselves into being healthy -- and in the end their pensions will be cut, and their Medicare *will* tell them to take the pain pill and that xyz procedure isn't worth it - - yes, rationing is going to be a fact of life there's no other way around it. And while this is happening....people will have to stay at jobs longer, which means less openings for younger workers .....combine that with Artificial Intelligence taking jobs....and it almost seems like Hunger Games will be normal for the masses one day. and for what? For busybodies to tell us not to eat fast food and not to be fat?

Also, I look at my financial situation.....sometimes it's a stretch to think I can make my money and lifestyle last till 90+. I honestly don't care if I make it to that...but I feel it's my duty to DW to see her thru till the final moment. And from an impersonal, solely financial point of view, 75-80 seems lovely. (And I realize even that is not guaranteed to anyone).

I'm 46 now, so 75 seems great. If Im 74, maybe I'd feel different about 75 :) I realize that. But I dunno ....if I could have a one on one with the Maker.....I think I'd respectfully ask for 75-80, with some reasonable aches and pains but nothing too horrible. And then - well, see what else might be out there.

means more money to spend while here, more to pass on to kids, and my goodness less old age misery.

Again if the Almighty reads this I'm thankful for life and everything, I'm not asking to be croaked. I'm thinking out loud is all.
Click to expand...

This article may provide you with some food for thought, and, mayhap, a humane way to fish your wish: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/
 
I thought the decline was driven by poor lifestyle choices. It seems that there is less than a year of covid experience by Dec 31 2020?
 
From a practical point of view, living into your early 80's without any health issues is good enough. Just observing our parents who are now in their mid-80's, their level of activity started to decline when they reached their early 80's. They were fine through their 70's. Every time we speak to them they talk about losing one of their friends. We are constantly dealing with scammers who are trying to cheat them out of their money. For that matter, we get regular calls from scammers too. My wife and I refuse to place our parents in retirement homes or assisted living. They are happier in their own homes and we have staff coming daily to take care of them (cooking, cleaning, and medical). It costs more but they get much better care and they can do what they want throughout the day.
 
kcowan said:
I thought the decline was driven by poor lifestyle choices. It seems that there is less than a year of covid experience by Dec 31 2020?
Click to expand...

Yes, less than a year of COVID pandemic contributes 74% of the overall decline. And quite a few more died in 2021, not included in this statistic. This quote from the article indicates that 375,000 Covid deaths were included.
“The decline in life expectancy between 2019 and 2020 can primarily be attributed to deaths from the pandemic,” the report reads. Covid deaths accounted for nearly 75% of the decline. More than 609,000 Americans have died in the pandemic, including about 375,000 last year, according to the CDC.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
MichealKnight said:
This will sound horrible and if God is reading - -please sir, I'm just ranting so please no lightning bolts.

Sometimes- I question the value of living too long which I realize means different things to different people. This whole being healthy, living till 90 and a 100.....in the end, all it means is people organic'ed and Peloton'ed themselves into being healthy -- and in the end their pensions will be cut, and their Medicare *will* tell them to take the pain pill and that xyz procedure isn't worth it - - yes, rationing is going to be a fact of life there's no other way around it. And while this is happening....people will have to stay at jobs longer, which means less openings for younger workers .....combine that with Artificial Intelligence taking jobs....and it almost seems like Hunger Games will be normal for the masses one day. and for what? For busybodies to tell us not to eat fast food and not to be fat?

Also, I look at my financial situation.....sometimes it's a stretch to think I can make my money and lifestyle last till 90+. I honestly don't care if I make it to that...but I feel it's my duty to DW to see her thru till the final moment. And from an impersonal, solely financial point of view, 75-80 seems lovely. (And I realize even that is not guaranteed to anyone).

I'm 46 now, so 75 seems great. If Im 74, maybe I'd feel different about 75 :) I realize that. But I dunno ....if I could have a one on one with the Maker.....I think I'd respectfully ask for 75-80, with some reasonable aches and pains but nothing too horrible. And then - well, see what else might be out there.

means more money to spend while here, more to pass on to kids, and my goodness less old age misery.

Again if the Almighty reads this I'm thankful for life and everything, I'm not asking to be croaked. I'm thinking out loud is all.
Click to expand...

I think you would feel differently if you were reasonably healthy.

My wife and I were pondering as we walked today which of the 3 phases of retirement we’re in: go-go, slow-go or no-go. Definitely not go-go any more although hard to tell the degree to which that’s COVID-driven. (Not because we’ve had it but because it’s restricted so many activities.) Pre-COVID I would have said late go-go/early slow-go. Now I would say early-mid slow-go but realistically we’re both probably only one significant medical issue short of slow-go. I’m 76 and the SS life expectancy calculator (which I understand is based on a large statistical/actuarial population) gives me 11 more years. My 74 y.o. Wife gets 13 more. If we were those ages and feeling like we do now we’d want to keep going. If we were blind, seriously disabled or mentally incompetent we'd likely feel different.
 
SD-455 said:
here is a good site to figure your life expectancy based on a number of variable factors that you enter. The entire US average can be pretty inaccurate for planning obviously.
https://www.blueprintincome.com/tools/life-expectancy-calculator-how-long-will-i-live/
Click to expand...
I'm not sure if that calculator is any good or not but it said I have a 75% chance to live 4 more years with a life expectancy of about 8 more years.... Sounds about right to me. However, I adjusted one or two parameters and it almost doubled...


OMG, just realized... I've been a member here for that long...I'm sure it seems a lot longer to some of the mods and a few members. :) But wow, to me that was sure quick.:eek:
 
Last edited:
I've used most of these calculators and they give me a range between 11 and 21 years more.

But I'm already well past the average life expectancy of those born the same time I was, so I guess I'm already living on borrowed time. :cool:

I eat when I'm hungry; I drink when I'm dry.
And if liquor don't kill me, I'll live 'til I die.
Click to expand...
 
Life expectancy at birth is an almost useless number. For example, for Olden Times we see life expectancy numbers like maybe 40 years. Peel the onion one level, though, and you find a two-hump camel. High child mortality, then calm, then higher mortality at ages that we might even now describe as "old." The shape of that curve is nothing like what we have now, but the numbers get tossed around like they were comparable.

Along the same lines, the "mortality quiz calculators" involving combinations of life style aspects have one thing in common: They are not validated by experimental data. Too many variables. So they are just guesses. Like almost everything about the future.
 
agreed the calculators are pretty rough estimates but for budgeting retirement funds, better to use one that leans toward more years to try and avoid outliving the money. Mine said I have a 50% chance of making it to 95 so I'm taking that with a large grain of salt but financially that's probably best for me to use that in planning.
 
Last edited:
OldShooter said:
Life expectancy at birth is an almost useless number. For example, for Olden Times we see life expectancy numbers like maybe 40 years. Peel the onion one level, though, and you find a two-hump camel. High child mortality, then calm, then higher mortality at ages that we might even now describe as "old." The shape of that curve is nothing like what we have now, but the numbers get tossed around like they were comparable.
Click to expand...
I believe that much of this is disingenuous, to convince people that Social Security, Medicare, pensions, etc. cannot possibly be funded. We hear all the time that "when these programs were initiated, almost nobody ever lived to be 65."

I guess that my grandfather, born 150 years ago, didn't really live to be 95.
 
As George E.P. Box said, “All models are wrong, but some are useful”.

Life expectancy calculators are statistical projections and probably have a reasonably high accuracy when applied to large groups. The projections cannot be applied to individuals, so a calculator like this doesn’t have much utility beyond establishing a probability range for each user.
 
MichaelB said:
... Life expectancy calculators are statistical projections and probably have a reasonably high accuracy when applied to large groups. ...
Click to expand...
of infants. Agreed.
 
OldShooter said:
of infants. Agreed.
Click to expand...
A number of businesses develop and use life expectancy (and related) calculators for groups of all ages. Insurers and pharmaceuticals are two that depend heavily on these tools.
 
MichaelB said:
As George E.P. Box said, “All models are wrong, but some are useful”.

Life expectancy calculators are statistical projections and probably have a reasonably high accuracy when applied to large groups. The projections cannot be applied to individuals, so a calculator like this doesn’t have much utility beyond establishing a probability range for each user.
Click to expand...

The scariest prediction I've ever seen was the time I accompanied my mother to her doctor's appointment. By way of making conversation, he asked her how long she expected to live. Without skipping a beat, she replied "96".

He was a bit nonplussed and asked why. "Because my father lived that long and I've always been like him."

She was in her late 80s at the time, but I never forgot that conversation. Long afterward, I calculated their ages:
Grandfather: 96 years, 5 months, exactly.
Mother: 96 years, 5 months, 11 days.

No idea how she did it, and of course it was coincidence, but that was an amazing prediction.
 
MichaelB said:
A number of businesses develop and use life expectancy (and related) calculators for groups of all ages. Insurers and pharmaceuticals are two that depend heavily on these tools.
Click to expand...
Sorry. It is the life expectancy mentioned in the OP that only applies to infants AFIK.
 
kcowan said:
I thought the decline was driven by poor lifestyle choices. It seems that there is less than a year of covid experience by Dec 31 2020?
Click to expand...

There was a decline a couple of years ago in the US that was ascribed to obesity (and the vascular disease and other health issues that follow that shorten lifespans on average).

Covid arrived in the US sometime in the spring, depending on where you live. But what could easily happen is if a 55-year old man died from the virus last summer, the life expectancy math would not just subtract for the six months they would have lived the rest of 2020, but all of his remaining 25 years of life expectancy he had at that point. If you have several hundred thousand people dying and they're each losing several to dozens of years of life expectancy, then the overall average could reasonably drop by 1.5 years.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

2
Reducing stock exposure in Retirement, age 60+
4 5 6
Replies
144
Views
10K
Onda
O
GravitySucks
US Life Expectancy Falls
Replies
11
Views
1K
USGrant1962
USGrant1962
M
Real Estate in 2024?
Replies
9
Views
891
DrRoy
DrRoy
M
Newly Retired - 4 month update
2
Replies
28
Views
5K
Koolau
Koolau
B
I might be retired now...
2
Replies
25
Views
5K
street
street

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom