comicbookgujy
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2013
- Messages
- 178
I'm getting killed in my Short Term Bond fund, VBISX!!!!
Um, you consider being down 0.11% year to date "getting killed"?I'm getting killed in my Short Term Bond fund, VBISX!!!!
Um, you consider being down 0.11% year to date "getting killed"?
Yes...opportunity cost if I had invested in S&P 500 index
Huh? By that measure, you would still have been "killed" if your VBISX has been UP 5% year to date. But gosh, if you'd been in the S&P 500, you'd have still blown it, because you could have been in FSCRX which is up over 13% year to date instead of just 11%.Yes...opportunity cost if I had invested in S&P 500 index
Everyone's entitled to [-]my opinion[/-] their own opinion, but what is it about "stock", i.e. partial ownership in a business, that deserves such a negative view? And I do mean "ownership", not day trading?
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i understand what he means. i look at my income mix in hindsite and look and see it is a little down for the year. then i look at the growth model i used to use and i go damn!..Huh? By that measure, you would still have been "killed" if your VBISX has been UP 5% year to date. But gosh, if you'd been in the S&P 500, you'd have still blown it, because you could have been in FSCRX which is up over 13% year to date instead of just 11%.
You must be pulling our leg.
Yes I can understand that in general.i understand what he means. i look at my income mix in hindsite and look and see it is a little down for the year. then i look at the growth model i used to use and i go damn!..
but that is human nature , we feel like a genius when what we own is doing nice but then we have buyers remorse when you watch everything else pass you by.
That would seem like a more reasonable approach than being mostly in fixed income funds at an early retirement age.i am just waiting for a roll back and i think the smarter thing to do at this stage is to leave about 10 years withdrawals in the fidelity insight income model i have been using and the rest move into the growth and income model going forward.
Check out today's CNN Money's article which also quotes Jeremy Siegel:
Bonds are riskier than stocks - Feb. 20, 2013
As mentioned in other threads I am very risk averse. Trying to change this by reading others' success with equities here but it's not easy. Also I have little time to study this (did you notice most of my posts are written at night ?) I am exhausted most of the time.
did you ever have the feeling you were standing in the wrong line?
This seems to be yet another article big on the sensational quotes, and sloppy on the supporting "evidence" - in other words, spin.Check out today's CNN Money's article which also quotes Jeremy Siegel:
Bonds are riskier than stocks - Feb. 20, 2013
The so-called "experts" have been loudly predicting interest rates would soon turn higher for several years now and have been dead wrong. Sure, they'll be right eventually, but this expert "prediction" for higher rates is nothing new.The 10-year Treasury yield has been falling since the early 1980s, but experts are predicting interest rates will turn higher, creating a challenging market.
Yep, pretty tough if you invested long US government bonds - i.e. in 10-year and 20-year US treasuries - last July when they reached a peak (in value), but most intermediate diversified bond funds have done quite well since mid-2012. My intermediate bond funds are up between 4 and 6% since mid-June of 2012.Investors with stakes in long-term Treasuries are already feeling the pain.
The 10-year yield crossed 5% a few times in the 2000s, but it also spend a great deal of time in the 3.5% to 4.5% range. Having it suddenly pop right back up to 5% seems unrealistic. More likely it will return to it's more typical range first, but even to get there we have a ways to go, and no one, no one knows how long that might take. If you look at the historical chart of the 10-year treasury yield, the time in the troughs seem to be shallow and extended. 10 Year Treasury Rate - multplIf the 10-year yield rises back to the level it was before the financial crisis (around 5%), bond funds could plunge 25%, said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at KDV Wealth Management.
Give me a break! First of all it's totally ridiculous to use a "2013 earnings estimate" to compare valuations to the past. No one knows what the 2013 earnings are going to be, and estimates are notoriously inaccurate. So lets compare trailing P/E instead. Current trailing S&P500 PE is around 17.36, at the same level as Jan 2007 which was 17.36. I don't think you can make the case that stocks are "undervalued" relative to 2007 at all. S&P 500 PE Ratio by YearThe risk is even more alarming when you consider valuations, added Dickson. The bond market "looks eerily similar" to the overvaluation of the stock market at the height of the Dotcom bubble, he said.
By comparison, the S&P 500, which is near a new record high, is trading at less than 14 times 2013 earnings estimates. Even at its all-time high in October 2007, the S&P 500's valuation was just above 17.
I agree with this comment 100%. There is no doubt in my mind that all of these ominous warnings about the danger of investing in bonds right now is going to drive many people into the stock market, just as it's reaching its record high. I can't predict the future, so I don't know how that will work out, but I'm positive that the best time to make a big move into the stock market was four years ago, not now. If you set an asset allocation that you're comfortable with and stick to it, you can ignore all of the noise and be satisfied with periodic rebalancing to adjust the amount of any asset class that has declined in value.And on the same website, same day this... Premarkets: Close to record highs - Feb. 20, 2013
Good reason not to pay much attention to the news cycle (financial) sites, they're just filling content space with any and every POV. That way they'll always be able to point to how they got it right later.
Like many of us have said, 'there's no place to hide right now...' so you diversify (or become a market timer, good luck with that).
If you set an asset allocation that you're comfortable with and stick to it, you can ignore all of the noise and be satisfied with periodic rebalancing to adjust the amount of any asset class that has declined in value.
When I set my AA it was based on the existing free market (independent buyers and sellers trying to maximize their gain in conjunction with their willingness to assume risk). There was no policy by the Fed to artificially hold interest rates down. When they change that policy and get their thumb off the scale, I'll increase my bond holdings.If you set an asset allocation that you're comfortable with and stick to it, you can ignore all of the noise and be satisfied with periodic rebalancing to adjust the amount of any asset class that has declined in value.