Charles Maxwell, Hubbert's Peak, $15 gallon gas and our retirement.

[flipstress]

I have no idea, though, what any politician is actually going to be able to do about it.

What I do see is that people here have addressed $12 gas in terms of their personal mobility and community transportation and planning. That's just the tip of the iceberg. Look around you, and try to identify any object or service in your life that is not petroleum/fossil-fuel-dependent. There are few. In my cluttered office with tons of stuff I can't find a single item, except a clamshell and a piece of driftwood.

Lately, I have been reading a lot about peak oil, and it's been a black cloud at the back of my mind as it pertains to retirement. With less and less oil, how will the economy grow? I think life will be harder just when I am getting older.

Personally, I will keep saving for retirement, but I will also try to learn new skills with things that are shall I say, not high on the attraction list to me, like gardening for food (permaculture, etc.) and canning and food preservation. I even thought I would "intern" in some CSA farm close by someday to learn the food-growing skills. When I get better at it, I will hook up with other food gardeners and try to be involved with community planning that promotes a healthy local food supply system.

We live in the city close to where we work, and we don't drive very much. (We get free bus passes from my city employment and BF bikes almost everywhere or does a bus-bike combo.) So, the big price increase of gasoline has not affected us much. But as ladelfina says, everything in our industrialized society is dependent on oil, so as it gets scarcer, prices will go up--food, clothing, transportation, medicine, etc.

I am also worried about my relatives abroad because life will be even harder for them. I hope the time does not come when I feel that I can't give them any more financial help.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

i already live in florida, a few blocks walk to the supermarket for dinner items and at least six gay bars to pick up a dinner date. but at $15/gal, driving and heating a home is gonna be the least of your worries.

as for that carbon-footprint-free bicycle, you better make sure it's light enough yet heavy enough so that you can throw it and do some damage to the thieves who are gonna be trying to break into your smart, carbon-convenient, urban dwelling unit.

 

[TromboneAl]

the "Walmart people" are being importuned by the current economy.

Well, I had to look up "importuned," anyone else?

 

[Danny]

Well, I had to look up "importuned," anyone else?

Sounds like a sign above an Import Car Mechanics Shop

 

[windsurf]

"orgy of desperate intrusive pathetic legislation to pacify the masses."

Remember bread and circuses? Now it's called Amereican Idol and cheap carbs (fast food, chips, pasta, bagels). As long as cheap beer doesn't spike above 4 dollars a gallon, I'll be quiet.

 

[W2R]

Remember bread and circuses? Now it's called Amereican Idol and cheap carbs (fast food, chips, pasta, bagels). As long as cheap beer doesn't spike above 4 dollars a gallon, I'll be quiet.

Oh hush, I love American Idol especially David Archuleta! Does that make me just another Wal-martian?

 

[Dog]

We (humans and the market) have an amazing ability to adapt to our circumstances - I have no doubt that will happen if the cost of oil continues to escalate. No need to predict doom & gloom (unless you enjoy living that way).

I too am using my bicycle for shorter trips. Fits in my financial and fitness plan!

 

[pedorrero]

Well, let's see, I guess the groceries and all the other consumer goods we'll need will be delivered by bicycle, ox cart, or super-efficient internal combustion engines? I doubt it. Read Kunstler's "The Long Emergency" for a good scare, if the fact (?) that (current) net household wealth is $70K, against unfunded Federal liabilities of about $500K per household, doesn't make you have to change your Depends. Most of that imaginary money is for the retired farts -- that's you and me, folks! As the Mogambo says, "We're freaking doomed!"

 

[enfp]

ok, ok lay off idol. I love david cook. I do worry about peak oil stuff, but am a firm believer in the ingenuity of entrepreneurs and the market. (compressed air, anyone?)Well unless they get squashed by big business, like the electric car did by its' own company. Don't you think they're kicking themselves? We'd probably be so much better off. Lots of speculative directions to take there, I think. Maybe even no 9/11 if we weren't so oil hungry.

Back to the ot. We had this discussion in the last 2 days. We aren't sure if it'll affect where we move. But really the housing market when we sell will have more of an effect. We have cut back on driving already to live on this fixed retirement income. I hate having to cut back and track my mileage. I'm a go-er, so it cramps my style. We'll just keep cutting back. Neither of us want to go to work to make up the difference. And yes, our energy funds are our biggest gainer. I recognize the irony of being outraged by the gas companies and their high profits while at the same time enjoying the profits myself in the fund.

 

[ERD50]

I do worry about peak oil stuff, but am a firm believer in the ingenuity of entrepreneurs and the market. (compressed air, anyone?)Well unless they get squashed by big business, like the electric car did by its' own company. Don't you think they're kicking themselves? We'd probably be so much better off.

Careful what you wish for. Air compressor cars waste energy. It is more efficient to just burn fossil fuel in the car, than it is to burn it to compress the air, and then use that air to move the car. Do you really want to waste energy?

Who 'squashed' the electric car? That conspiracy theory does not hold up, makes no sense. If electric cars were sooooo in demand by the public, then why hasn't Toyota, or Honda, or Nissan, or Daimler, or some start-up produced one and sold it if it was so easy. Like Toyota is just going to turn down all that business?

The Tesla electric costs over $100,000. Before you say 'oh, but it's a high performance sports car, that's why'.... it's a bit of a chicken-egg thing. To get >200 mile range, you need lots of expensive lithium batteries. Once you have enough of those batteries for >200 mile range, you also have enough burst power for 0-60 in 4 seconds. They go hand in hand. Since those batteries are so expensive, the only way they can get people to buy them is to wrap a sports car around it so they can show off all that power. So that is what they are doing.

Someday, hopefully soon, (I want one, if I can get it at a good price!) we will have affordable electrics (but need a source for cheap non-polluting electricity). But that day is not today, and it was not back in the day of the EV-1.


Read up on the CARB requirements of the day, and you will see that GM was forced to lease those cars to do business in CA. They never could have sold them and made a profit, they leased them to contain their costs and maintain control of the product.

-ERD50

 

[Marquette]

Well, I had to look up "importuned," anyone else?

No. But I have no idea what 'Wal-mart people' means.

 

[whitestick]

The price of gas, other than whatever I feel in the cost of food and deliveries, well, it's just not a big thing. There are even two WalMarts within that distance.

Ah, but with the effects of gas prices and other petroleum based products impacting the cost of doing business, it's entirely likely that one or even both of those WalMarts might close down. Pulling back to urban locations of high population density, may finally regenerate the downtown areas that have been struggling for many years. The 'burbs may close down the infrastructure support that was nearby, forcing even longer commutes to the stores in the main urban areas.
Here in my area, we have experienced many restaurants and grocery stores closing over the last ten years due to thin margins, and difficulty of meeting competition. If the gas costs drive up their costs for labor, product, and support services over their current level, even the remaining successful ones, are likely to close down and pull back to higher volume lower delivery cost areas. If that happens, even your current plans for bicycle accessible stores may see some problems.

 

[chinaco]

The US may need to develop a better (high speed) rail system for travelers.

I agree that technology will curb demand for oil... we will use alternatives. My money is on the electric motor driving the vehicle.

• Start with hybrids using conventional gas, ethanol (mix), and diesel.
• Then on to hybrids with conventional fuel along with plug-in (once battery tech is more viable)
• Move on to Hydrogen hybrids or fuel cell.

Plus, Auto manufactures will work on reducing the weights of vehicles... probably using carbon fiber or fiberglass or other. But that may be a few years off.

The easy way to reduce weight is to reduce the size of the vehicle. That will happen also... people will be buying fewer trucks, SUVs, and Mini-Vans. If gas goes to $7/gal... you will see many people in a financial bind. Transportation habits will change for most people.

If these technologies become viable, then demand for oil will begin to drop... I suspect that most countries will adopt the most prevalent technology of the time.

 

[HFWR]

Two problems that aren't technological exist for the acceptance of battery-power cars. For local driving, it's not really a necessity to have a 200-mile range. Additionally, most people want some good old Detroit iron surrounding them. The teensy-weensy cars that would be ideal for local and commuter use have a distinct disadvantage in an accident with a Hummer or an F350.

Probably 99% of my vehicle use is trips to Walmart and/or Lowe's (about five miles roundtrip), and my commute to the new j*b (about twenty miles roundtrip). Usually, there's only one occupant, and speeds rarely exceed 45mph...

 

[REWahoo]

Although it will vary greatly by a number of factors (hourly wage, length of commute, alternate transportation availability, etc.), I wonder at what price point it will begin to be more expensive to commute to work than to not have a job at all? Especially for the second wage earner in a family and/or part time workers.

I think Al said it first - interesting times ahead...

 

[ERD50]

Ah, but with the effects of gas prices and other petroleum based products impacting the cost of doing business, it's entirely likely that one or even both of those WalMarts might close down.

I'll toss out a contrarian view to that (which may be 100% wrong), but...

Wouldn't higher fuel prices give those WalMarts an *advantage*? The alternative is the small mom-pop stores (less efficient use of fuel due to economy of scale), or, lots of people driving into town (also less efficient).

Just thinking.... - ERD50

 

[Leonidas]

Although it will vary greatly by a number of factors (hourly wage, length of commute, alternate transportation availability, etc.), I wonder at what price point it will begin to be more expensive to commute to work than to not have a job at all?

I'm curious about that myself. Locally there are more jobs than people. A lot of the manufacturing firms are begging for skilled people and many of them have contracts to keep them working at full capacity for 5 years out. Of course if the workers live on the other side of the metro area and can't afford to drive to work...it could get interesting.

Ah, but with the effects of gas prices and other petroleum based products impacting the cost of doing business, it's entirely likely that one or even both of those WalMarts might close down. Pulling back to urban locations of high population density...

True for the case of lower density suburbs, but while I live in a suburb it is a small city with a higher population density than many of the other suburbs and nearly that of the big city next door. Plus, we actually have suburbs of our own now, where a lot of people live but their population density is only half of ours. I think they are the ones who will find their Wal Marts closed and be forced to come shop here.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out locally. My suburban city is an unusual case in that most of it was basically built from scratch in the last 20 years by private developers using a master plan. The city that eventually annexed all of it went from about 10,000 people to 60,000 overnight, and the city government has done a fantastic job so far in managing growth and development. Everything is close and easy to get to, although traffic from our suburbs is starting to be a major pain as they come to shop and work here.

A lot of my neighbors still commute to work in the big city every day, but we have two Fortune 500 companies headquarters here as well as the HQ's of several major divisions of other F500's (most recent one is just now finishing out 115,000 sq ft of office space here). I'm sure that not everyone who works at these businesses lives in this city, some even commute from the big city or other suburbs. We have commuters going both directions every day, not exactly a fuel efficient model.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Barbarus's words are a warning (as is his Karl Marx persona). A Robin Hood mentality will rise and our IRAs will not be safe.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

By the way, people are already changing their behavior to reflect higher fuel costs.

Recently we drove from Bellingham, WA, to Salem, OR, on a Friday afternoon and back the next Monday. I have not seen so few cars on I-5 for many, many years! (Note that I am working in Calgary, Alberta, (an oil town) these days. No curtailment of driving here in Canadistan!)

 

[barbarus]

Barbarus's words are a warning (as is his Karl Marx persona). A Robin Hood mentality will rise and our IRAs will not be safe.

Edward, the avatar of Ole' Karl represents the mentality of the Republican Party, as evidenced by the current administration in Washington. I, unlike Comrade Bush, am completely against bailouts. Unlike Comrade Bernanke, I believe in fighting inflation, not saving the banks with artificially low rates. It wouldn't surprise me if tonight, Obama and McCain hopped into bed and were put to sleep by Hillary reading to them from Das Kapital.

As Comrade Chairman Mao said, "The East is red". He meant Washington DC.

 

[Walt34]

... I wonder at what price point it will begin to be more expensive to commute to work than to not have a job at all? Especially for the second wage earner in a family and/or part time workers.

This is exactly the issue that DW and I ran into upon moving from near Wash. DC to WV. The "original plan" was that we were going to get part time jobs that would free us from dealing with the absurd traffic in the DC area, but we were careful that we were in a position that we would never have to work again if we didn't want to. Or as near certainty as one can be in such things.

What we ran into was the economics that all but a very few part time jobs here don't pay enough to justify driving to and from them. In effect, we'd be working to support the car to get there and back, the point of which is...? The heck with that, I'll stay home and watch History channel, go fishing, a bike ride, repaint FIL's house, post on the ER forum, etc.

Apparently there are a lot of people in WV who feel the same way we do. DW applied for a part time $9/hour secretary job at a nearby university where she's taking classes and they had multiple Ph.D's applying for it. DW is a pretty smart gal, but she doesn't have a Ph.D.

So due to previous experience, dogged determination, hard work, persistence, the proper alignment of the moon & stars or my baby blue eyes, I got a job (if the federal govt. doesn't lose the paperwork again) that will pay enough to write a check for a new car (Ok, it would be a Kia) every three months (were I so foolish) and is 10-15 minutes away. That pays enough to make the trip worthwhile.

 

[ikubak]

I'm already set up to not need much gas. I can walk to work or the grocery store. I've got restaurants nearby too. I buy about 15 gallons of gas per month. I used to live in a large city and that meant driving an average of about 100 miles per day and using 120 gallons of gas per month. People looking at retiring should consider living close to the things they need to minimize the effects of energy prices.

 

[ziggy29]

As long as cheap beer doesn't spike above 4 dollars a gallon, I'll be quiet.

Heh. The cheapest crap at the grocery store is about $15 for a 30-can suitcase. There are about 11 cans in a gallon. So even the cheap stuff is $5.50 a gallon or so.

Where are the torches and pitchforks?

 

[ikubak]

Lately, I have been reading a lot about peak oil, and it's been a black cloud at the back of my mind as it pertains to retirement. With less and less oil, how will the economy grow? I think life will be harder just when I am getting older.

Personally, I will keep saving for retirement, but I will also try to learn new skills with things that are shall I say, not high on the attraction list to me, like gardening for food (permaculture, etc.) and canning and food preservation. I even thought I would "intern" in some CSA farm close by someday to learn the food-growing skills. When I get better at it, I will hook up with other food gardeners and try to be involved with community planning that promotes a healthy local food supply system.

We live in the city close to where we work, and we don't drive very much. (We get free bus passes from my city employment and BF bikes almost everywhere or does a bus-bike combo.) So, the big price increase of gasoline has not affected us much. But as ladelfina says, everything in our industrialized society is dependent on oil, so as it gets scarcer, prices will go up--food, clothing, transportation, medicine, etc.

I am also worried about my relatives abroad because life will be even harder for them. I hope the time does not come when I feel that I can't give them any more financial help.

Good point on the food. I am growing more food than in the past. This means fewer trips to the grocery store, fresher produce, and lots of fun growing my own stuff. I really want to take part of the yard and convert it from a grass growing/lawn cutting exercise to more food production. DW is not behind me in this effort though. I visited Plymouth Plantation a few years ago and remember how they showed the Pilgrims houses having gardens for vegetables all around the house, and I think that would be a good thing form more people to do. Maybe I'm a little crazy, but I just don't see much use in growing and cutting grass (unless its the wacky tobaky kind )

 

[ladelfina]

ikubak.. I'd like to do more of this too, but our yard is very shaded.. The sunniest spot is right next to the front door and last year I ripped out a sq. of lawn (well, DH did) and planted corn!! That was a bust except for one ear but it was the most delicious thing on earth (they don't raise/sell fresh sweet corn in Italy from what I can see)!!! I also planted 2 pumpkin vines; yield one mini-pumpkin. Both kinds of plants grew fine, but there's something not going right with them getting pollinated.

I'm not discouraged entirely, though. This year, tomatoes!!
I've also had excellent luck with scallions.. it's so great to have them right there in the ground when you just want one or two.. instead of getting them at the store and they go all slimy in the fridge.

You might enjoy this video:
YouTube - An Experiment in Back Yard Sustainability

2 books I'd recommend:
Square Foot Gardening
Amazon.com: Noah's Garden: Restoring the Ecology of Our Own Backyards: Sara B. Stein: Books
this second one has a lot of advice on ways to reduce lawns with plantings.. I see this author has a subsequent book as well but have not read that one. I bet reading "Noah's Garden" would win over your wife because it just makes so much sense.