...and because I am getting closer, and have a big fear that the bear market will begin on or just before the day of my retirement, I am already lining up with the runway, by making AA adjustments.
My plan is to start with fixed instruments, for the first couple years (in the 401Ks and MM), then start shifting over to a bucket system of about 1.5 years' need in a Cash Bucket, plus a growth dividends taxable Stock Bucket that I seed with an anticipated inheritance (and I expect to pass this money on, and never touch myself). I will then steadily move money from the 401Ks into the Cash and Stocks buckets. Dividends from the Stock Bucket will feed the Cash Bucket too. Eventually (maybe 20 years) I will deplete the 401Ks via these withdrawals, and RMDs.
I have modeled all kinds of plans in my spreadsheets for months and months (Roth conversions, traditional 3 buckets, etc), and this one works best for me, giving me some protection from the inevitable bear market. If the bear does hit within the first year or so, I will be safely in fixed assets, and have the dry powder to buy stocks at a bargain.
So, this week I jumped ship and changed all my 401K money over to fixed instruments (averaging 2.4%). I will sit this way for up to a couple years, waiting for the bear to roar and the market to drop ~25%, or until I get a little inheritance money. Either way I will then start the 100% Stocks Bucket going in a couple years.
So, my AA will swing from sort of 0/0/100 to a graduated equities increase over time.
I think this strategy will not be very popular here (you're market timing!), but I don't care, since it should allow me to sleep at night as the market fluctuates during what is surely the latter part of the bull market.
Peace.