mickeyd
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
A surprising mid-summer decrease in energy prices drove a downturn in the July Consumer Price Index (CPI), the measure used to determine the annual cost of living adjustments (COLAs) for military retired pay, Social Security, and other federal annuities.
On August 15, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the July CPI value, indicating that inflation decreased 0.1% from the June figure. That means inflation has risen a cumulative 2.3% for the first 10 months of FY2007.
What does that imply for the 2008 COLA? In the past 30 years, the CPI only decreased twice between June and July (in 2001 and 2004). In both of those years, inflation rose only modestly during August and September.
That's a small sample size and makes for an iffy projection, but if that experience holds true for the next two months of 2007, we’re likely looking at a 2008 COLA in the range of 2.3% to 2.5%.
From a recent MOAA email.