Corona Virus, Covid and the future

[Sunset]

We've had our shots (I used to say that about the dog)

We wear masks inside stores, even if not required. I also wear them inside banks as it's a rebel move. Wonder when banks will insist on no masks

Outside, we are mask free, but tend to stand a few feet away from neighbors when talking, why take the risk and has the advantage that we no longer can tell who has brushed their teeth or not

 

[Alan]

In the Downing Street briefing today the PM and his CMO and CSO confirmed the plans to press ahead with the removal of all restrictions on July 19th in England even with a projected rate of 50k positive tests per day.

They expect all over 40’s to be fully vaccinated by the 19th, all adults to be full vaccinated by end of September.

Opening now at the start of school and college holidays is better than 6 weeks later when they go back.

The modeling predicts increasing hospitalizations but should peak at manageable levels for the NHS.

Boosters for the medically vulnerable are planned for after September.

 

[RobbieB]

I do not wear masks anymore unless "required for entry" in on the door.

It's so nice not to have that stupid glasses fogging rag strapped across your face!

 

[ivinsfan]

In the Downing Street briefing today the PM and his CMO and CSO confirmed the plans to press ahead with the removal of all restrictions on July 19th even with a projected rate of 50k positive tests per day.

They expect all over 40’s to be fully vaccinated by the 19th, all adults to be full vaccinated by end of September.

Opening now at the start of school and college holidays is better than 6 weeks later when they go back.

The modeling predicts increasing hospitalizations but should peak at manageable levels for the NHS.

Boosters for the medically vulnerable are planned for after September.

I just read today that Duchess Kate got isolation for 10 days because she was in the proximity of someone testing positive. She's been double vaxx and covid tested like 4 times in the last 10 days..is going to be stopped on the 19th?

 

[Alan]

I just read today that Duchess Kate got isolation for 10 days because she was in the proximity of someone testing positive. She's been double vaxx and covid tested like 4 times in the last 10 days..is going to be stopped on the 19th?

They have been discussing dropping the requirement for fully vaccinated people to not need to self isolate after being in contact with someone who has tested positive. They did not confirm today that this would be the case after July 19th but maybe will bring that in. More details next week, 1 week before the 19th.

The data is still not absolutely conclusive that fully vaccinated folks cannot transmit the virus. I suspect they might hold back on this particular relaxation of the rules if the infection rate is still very high.

 

[harllee]

I do not wear masks anymore unless "required for entry" in on the door.

It's so nice not to have that stupid glasses fogging rag strapped across your face!

Robbie, if you want a mask that does not fog glasses get the KN95 mask. A very comfortable light weight well fitting mask. It has a long wire across the top you shape along the top of your nose which prevents your glasses from fogging.
I have an immune compromised husband so I am still wearing my mask in all indoors crowded places.

 

[RobbieB]

All in our "circle" are non compromised and fully double vacc'ed. Not wearing unless required.

 

[jj]

That's not per day... is it?

That's what I was thinking...

I look at the UK stats all the time as I have close family and friends there. The UK quotes a 7-day/100,000 population figure whereas ours here in the US is per day.

Hence, you multiply by 7 to get a vaguely comparable figure for UK to USA infection rates.

 

[tmm99]

That's what I was thinking...

I look at the UK stats all the time as I have close family and friends there. The UK quotes a 7-day/100,000 population figure whereas ours here in the US is per day.

Hence, you multiply by 7 to get a vaguely comparable figure for UK to USA infection rates.

Yeah, kind of confusing right? I live in Canada and I sometimes see a 14-day-average per 100,000.

 

[Alan]

I just read today that Duchess Kate got isolation for 10 days because she was in the proximity of someone testing positive. She's been double vaxx and covid tested like 4 times in the last 10 days..is going to be stopped on the 19th?

This rule is going to be scrapped in August as per an announcement by the health minister today.

Close contacts of people in England who have tested positive for Covid will not have to self-isolate if they have received both their vaccinations, or if they are under 18, Sajid Javid has announced to the Commons.

The policy will come into force from 16 August. Adults will need to have had their second vaccination at least 10 days beforehand, the health secretary told MPs on Tuesday.

“We will soon be able to take a risk-based approach that recognises the huge benefits that the vaccines provide both to people who get the jab and their loved ones too,” Javid said.

People will, however, still be obliged to self-isolate as before if they test positive for Covid.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ugust-says-sajid-javid?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

[Aerides]

They have been discussing dropping the requirement for fully vaccinated people to not need to self isolate after being in contact with someone who has tested positive. They did not confirm today that this would be the case after July 19th but maybe will bring that in. More details next week, 1 week before the 19th.

The UK health sec'y announced this morning:

From 16 August, fully vaccinated adults in England will not have to self-isolate if they are a close contact of a positive case, the health secretary says

 

[Koolau]

The UK health sec'y announced this morning:

From 16 August, fully vaccinated adults in England will not have to self-isolate if they are a close contact of a positive case, the health secretary says

Yes, either we believe in the vaccine and its efficacy, or we don't. YMMV

 

[Alan]

Yes, either we believe in the vaccine and its efficacy, or we don't. YMMV

It’s not about efficacy of the vaccines, it is about the sterilizing effect of the vaccines. You may not get sick from Covid but can you still pass it on?

I think there is now enough real world data to believe that fully vaccinated individuals who show no Covid symptoms are not likely to be transmitters of the virus.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...top-covid-transmission-to-curb-the-pandemic1/

The question of whether immunization prevents recipients from becoming ill and from infecting others is not unique to the current pandemic. According to Dawn Bowdish, a professor of pathology and molecular medicine at McMaster University, this so-called sterilizing immunity was a key factor in eliminating smallpox.

 

[Chuckanut]

Preliminary results out of Israel show that the Pfizer vaccine (fully vacinated) is about 64% effective in preventing infection from the Delta variant. And 94% effective in preventing serious illness from that variant.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer...t-delta-variant-israeli-data-show-11625572796

The vaccine protected 64% of inoculated people from infection during an outbreak of the Delta variant, down from 94% before, according to Israel’s Health Ministry. It was 94% effective at preventing severe illness in the same period, compared with 97% before, the ministry said.

Be careful.

 

[audreyh1]

Yeah, too bad! Although the UK experience is quite different.

Makes things quite a bit more dangerous here in terms of a serious outbreak.

 

[Alan]

Just been talking with my next door neighbor. His Covid alert app went off today warning him that he has been in close contact with someone who has tested positive so he is advised to self isolate for 7 days. He is double vaccinated and if this had happened after August 16th the rules would have changed and he wouldn’t have to isolate if he didn’t have symptoms.

He is a taxi driver so he is going to do the safe thing and self isolate for fear that he might pass it onto someone else as he is in close contact with dozens of folks every week. The app is anonymous, the authorities won’t know if he follows the instructions so I am pleased that he is being so responsible. I have given him my oximeter and a thermometer so he can monitor his stats, plus he picked up a box of lateral flow tests so he can test himself from time to time. I’ll also pick up supplies for him as needed.

He said he has had the app ever since it came out almost a year ago and that it’s amazing this is the first time it has alerted.

 

[REWahoo]

Alan, nice to hear about someone "doing the right thing" when only those who don't seem to make the news. Like Italy.

 

[audreyh1]

He said he has had the app ever since it came out almost a year ago and that it’s amazing this is the first time it has alerted.

That is indeed amazing for a taxi driver! Maybe he wasn’t working for several months?

 

[Alan]

That is indeed amazing for a taxi driver! Maybe he wasn’t working for several months?

He has been raking it in this last few months since restrictions started unwinding mid April. Reckons he will lose £1k in fares this coming week. Euro semis and the final this Saturday

 

[audreyh1]

It’s quite disappointing to see that US cases have risen 35% over the past two weeks.

And hospitalizations have remained unchanged rather than dropping.

The good news is that deaths have dropped 40% over the same two week period. Deaths have been slower to come down compared to cases and hospitalizations, but the past month they have dropped off substantially.

 

[Alan]

It’s quite disappointing to see that US cases have risen 35% over the past two weeks.

And hospitalizations have remained unchanged rather than dropping.

The good news is that deaths have dropped 40% over the same two week period. Deaths have been slower to come down compared to cases and hospitalizations, but the past month they have dropped off substantially.

Hopefully the deaths and hospitalizations stay low.

The UK is doing an experiment that is pretty scary. Cases continue to rise sharply, now up to almost 30k/day but the plan to fully open up on July 19th is going ahead. This is going to test how well the vaccines work. 85% of adults have had 1 dose, 65% have had 2. By July 19th it is expected all over 40’s will have had 2 doses.

Current target is to have all adults with 2 doses by end of September.

Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes.

 

[harllee]

Hopefully the deaths and hospitalizations stay low.

The UK is doing an experiment that is pretty scary. Cases continue to rise sharply, now up to almost 30k/day but the plan to fully open up on July 19th is going ahead. This is going to test how well the vaccines work. 85% of adults have had 1 dose, 65% have had 2. By July 19th it is expected all over 40’s will have had 2 doses.

Current target is to have all adults with 2 doses by end of September.

Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes.

Alan, how is it that the UK can get so many vaccinated? In some areas of the US
we can't get people to come in and get vaccines even by offering million dollar lotteries. What is the UK's secret?

 

[audreyh1]

Alan, how is it that the UK can get so many vaccinated? In some areas of the US
we can't get people to come in and get vaccines even by offering million dollar lotteries. What is the UK's secret?

Not Alan obviously, but

I imagine a big part of it has been scarcity of the vaccine. Younger people have had to wait a long time for their turn, and also everyone had to wait much longer for their second dose. Plus the UK was generally hit much harder by the virus than the US and had to take much stricter measures. So I expect people feel more vulnerable. I notice that some areas harder hit in the US, such as our area, have much higher vaccination rates. Finally I expect cultural attitudes towards the vaccine are different.

 

[Alan]

Alan, how is it that the UK can get so many vaccinated? In some areas of the US
we can't get people to come in and get vaccines even by offering million dollar lotteries. What is the UK's secret?

My thoughts are as follows:

Culturally I think there is more trust in the government and healthcare system and historically there has always been a good take up of vaccines.

Apart from healthcare workers and people with preexisting conditions the vaccine rollout has been by age bracket and older folks, seeing the hugely disproportionate Covid death rate among the older age groups had a huge take-up, well over 90% in the older groups.

No need to search for appointments, local doctor practices contact all the eligible folks in their area, but plenty of mass vaccination centres including football stadia as well where you can easily book and go yourself. (Lots of young folks interviewed on TV lining up inside their local team’s football stadium)

Mobile vaccination buses going out into the more rural areas.

People love to travel to Europe and are keen to get their Covid vaccine certificate which most folks with smart phones will have electronically.

There were concerns that the younger age groups would be more resistant but by the time we reached those age groups the virus was again spreading rapidly and almost exclusively among younger folks including many ending up in hospital.

 

[Aerides]

...local doctor practices contact all the eligible folks in their area...

This is a big part of it, considering many many younger people in the US don't actually have a PCP or visit any doctor. Particularly the under-35 single people, think gig economy, and hourly paid shift workers who may not even have insurance...or if they do could be bankrupted by their deductible alone.

The culture of having a connection to the medical world, vs. it being some "other" thing is very different. I'm sure if you asked people to name their doctor, in the UK it would be a far higher number than the US.

(ok that and all the other stuff too...)