Coronavirus - Travel impacts II

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That 1st Californian coronavirus death in Placer County was a 71-year-old man who took a cruise on a Princess ship from Mexico to San Francisco. He disembarked Feb 21, and was rushed to a hospital on Feb 27. He died on Mar 4.

Health officials are afraid many more passengers among the 2,600 on that trip also got infected. CA state officials are using the manifest to try to contact 1/2 of the passengers who are CA residents. CDC will contact the other 1/2 who live outside of CA.

This Grand Princess ship is currently on an itinerary of San Francisco-Hawaii, and is currently held in waters off CA instead of being allowed to dock at SF. There are 21 people on board currently with symptoms. The ship has 62 passengers who continued on from the last trip of Mexico-San Francisco that the deceased Californian took.

See: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/f...lacer-county-health-officials-say/ar-BB10KJnp

https://www.kcra.com/article/first-california-coronavirus-death-confirmed-placer-county/31228355

https://www.washingtonpost.com/trav...-california-coast-awaiting-coronavirus-tests/

https://www.politico.com/states/cal...ting-quarantine-off-the-pacific-coast-1265405


PS. Along with the 71-year-old passenger who just died, there is another passenger on the same trip who has been confirmed with the virus, and is now in "difficult conditions".
 
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brewer12345 said:
I cannot imagine who in their right mind would book a cruise now.
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I almost did today, but since we may get stuck in Europe, or stuck in quarantine here when we return, I held off.

I would be sure to get a balcony, just in case of quarantine. Could be a selling feature of balcony rooms :D
 
Teacher Terry said:
I read that the virus can live up to 9 days. If I end up needing to be quarantined I want to be home with my dogs. Not stuck in a small motel room. Being able to be outside in my backyard would make a world of difference. If things get bad we will just stay home.
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It was warm and sunny on our patio today. We enjoyed just sitting out there with a beer and our dog, chatting and listening to the birds sing. If we had to get quarantined it would be a nice place to chill. I had planned to visit one of our kids this month but I'm putting off flying for now.
 
audreyh1 said:
If you read the article they comment that there have been no positive COVID-19 detections of the screened travelers, so they don’t yet know if it was community based or what.
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Or there were one or more false negatives from screening travelers.
 
Well Sens..the thing you don't mention is that if you are at home and things worsen considerably you can go to the sequestering option at a moments notice. So that's the fundamental difference here.


I noticed up thread that the temp threshold for boarding a flight in Italy is 99.5...also on my state flu site that of all the number of people going for outpatient care for "flu-like" symptoms only around a third test positive for flu. The other have your regular winter cold type stuff. My point being if you are ill at all in a foreign country they are going to treat you like you have Covid 19 no matter what.


Basically if you travel internationally or on any cruise at this point you have given up all your free agency in regards to your movement.
 
It looks like NAB 2020 is likely headed for cancellation. They were expecting over 90,000 visitors from 160 countries. With Nikon pulling out of the show, I'm sure Canon, Panasonic, and Sony will do so also at which point, what would be the point of going. I'm going to go ahead and cancel our hotel reservations and get our deposit back.

https://www.cinema5d.com/nikon-exits-nab-2020-coronavirus-concerns/
 
Freedom56 said:
Or there were one or more false negatives from screening travelers.
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This is pure speculation on your part along with your comment about how the "protective clothing" didn't help. Why not wait until the facts are known before making comments like this?
 
brewer12345 said:
I cannot imagine who in their right mind would book a cruise now.
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My DH and I cruised 1/4/20 to 1/12/20. We had a good time. DH got a bad cold and our first stop in PR was at the drug store. He felt better, but then we think that he got the flu, after we got home. He was in bed for 3 days with chills and body aches. It took him about 2 weeks to start feeling better. I don't know if I will ever get back on a cruise. If I do, it will not be during flu season and will probably wait for a coronavirus vaccine. We did have our flu vaccines.
 
Probably the cruise line has about another month or so of hardship and then the containment attempts will be over and it won't be any more risky to cruise than to go to Wal-mart.

I am actually looking at buying CCL in the $25 area. It broke $30 today. I don't feel a rush to go out and buy, but there could be value there.

I have never ever taken a cruise but you guys do seem to enjoy them so there must be something to it. I do love to sail our boats on the open water.
 
More naked links have been deleted. Please remember to provide a snippet or summary of any link.
 
ivinsfan said:
This is pure speculation on your part along with your comment about how the "protective clothing" didn't help. Why not wait until the facts are known before making comments like this?
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I suggest you read the article in the link below. In summary it states:

"The result showed that most countries’ procedures miss two-thirds of travelers exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms, a finding that Lipsitch said may explain the recent appearance of a cluster of cases in Washington, where 10 people have died. Lipsitch said travelers sick with COVID-19 likely arrived in the U.S. four to six weeks earlier and simply were missed in screening, leading to the Seattle area outbreak."



https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/st...us-cases-may-have-slipped-through-screenings/
 
We have been on 6 cruises and loved them. However, it would be horrible to be quarantined on one so don’t know if we will take another.
 
ivinsfan said:
Well Sens..the thing you don't mention is that if you are at home and things worsen considerably you can go to the sequestering option at a moments notice. So that's the fundamental difference here.

I noticed up thread that the temp threshold for boarding a flight in Italy is 99.5...also on my state flu site that of all the number of people going for outpatient care for "flu-like" symptoms only around a third test positive for flu. The other have your regular winter cold type stuff. My point being if you are ill at all in a foreign country they are going to treat you like you have Covid 19 no matter what.

Basically if you travel internationally or on any cruise at this point you have given up all your free agency in regards to your movement.
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You bring up a good point. I like this kind of exploration. The closest I got to the idea was the difference between convalescing at home or in a strange place, but I was concentrating on a severe case. In a milder case, it certainly would be 'no fun' to be told you can't fly, then be flat on your back for two weeks in a hotel or something, where nobody is willing to help you for (justified) fear of contracting the disease. At home, you might have friends or family to drop off food, at least. If you need hospitalization, probably less difference between US and other developed countries, but if you are traveling alone, or if two and both are hit concurrently, and you just need to get through it in order to travel, that convalesce period would be easier at home.
 
Teacher Terry said:
We have been on 6 cruises and loved them. However, it would be horrible to be quarantined on one so don’t know if we will take another.
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I think the quarantine stuff will be over once every country has a widespread outbreak.

I really can't see CCL turning into another Seadrill. We might eventually wean our society off of oil but I doubt we will stop travelling.

That being said, they might be overleveraged, which is really what happened to the deepwater oil rig industry.
 
Teacher Terry said:
We have been on 6 cruises and loved them. However, it would be horrible to be quarantined on one so don’t know if we will take another.
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We will take more cruises after the one we already have scheduled this Spring.


For the next few cruises, we will book balcony's as the extra value if quarantined, (beyond the value of just having a balcony) will be worth it.
 
Fermion said:
I think the quarantine stuff will be over once every country has a widespread outbreak.

I really can't see CCL turning into another Seadrill. We might eventually wean our society off of oil but I doubt we will stop travelling.

That being said, they might be overleveraged, which is really what happened to the deepwater oil rig industry.
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Ccl appears to have the strongest balance sheet, nclh the weakest and rcl in between. If ccl appears to still have a viable business once things have finished cratering, that is the only cruise equity I would buy. The bonds of all three might be interesting in a distressed scenario.
 
Freedom56 said:
I suggest you read the article in the link below. In summary it states:

"The result showed that most countries’ procedures miss two-thirds of travelers exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms, a finding that Lipsitch said may explain the recent appearance of a cluster of cases in Washington, where 10 people have died. Lipsitch said travelers sick with COVID-19 likely arrived in the U.S. four to six weeks earlier and simply were missed in screening, leading to the Seattle area outbreak."



https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/st...us-cases-may-have-slipped-through-screenings/
Click to expand...

well ineffective screening is not the same term as false negative....just trying to tamp down some fears people might have..false negative would be a Covid 19 test failure IMO. I haven't seen any numbers on that.
 
brewer12345 said:
Ccl appears to have the strongest balance sheet, nclh the weakest and rcl in between. If ccl appears to still have a viable business once things have finished cratering, that is the only cruise equity I would buy. The bonds of all three might be interesting in a distressed scenario.
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An interesting Chapter 11 situation. I have never looked, but I suspect each cruise ship is held in a separate corporate entity, with financing secured by a mortgage on the ship as well as a security interest in the charter fees paid by the cruise line operating entity. I suspect the holding company issues bonds. If that is the case, you would want to be a creditor of the individual ship corporate entity if possible, because you would be structurally senior and secured. Next best would be a creditor of the operating entity. Of course, that assumes no intercompany guarantees or cross-collateralization.
 
The World Health Organization (WHO) is still recommending no international travel restrictions although it is obvious that many countries are disregarding their advice:

https://www.who.int/ith/2019-nCoV_advice_for_international_traffic-rev/en/

"WHO continues to advise against the application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.

In general, evidence shows that restricting the movement of people and goods during public health emergencies is ineffective in most situations and may divert resources from other interventions. Furthermore, restrictions may interrupt needed aid and technical support, may disrupt businesses, and may have negative social and economic effects on the affected countries. However, in certain circumstances, measures that restrict the movement of people may prove temporarily useful, such as in settings with few international connections and limited response capacities.

Travel measures that significantly interfere with international traffic may only be justified at the beginning of an outbreak, as they may allow countries to gain time, even if only a few days, to rapidly implement effective preparedness measures. Such restrictions must be based on a careful risk assessment, be proportionate to the public health risk, be short in duration, and be reconsidered regularly as the situation evolves"
 
MBAustin said:
The World Health Organization (WHO) is still recommending no international travel restrictions although it is obvious that many countries are disregarding their advice:

https://www.who.int/ith/2019-nCoV_advice_for_international_traffic-rev/en/

"WHO continues to advise against the application of travel or trade restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks.

In general, evidence shows that restricting the movement of people and goods during public health emergencies is ineffective in most situations and may divert resources from other interventions. Furthermore, restrictions may interrupt needed aid and technical support, may disrupt businesses, and may have negative social and economic effects on the affected countries. However, in certain circumstances, measures that restrict the movement of people may prove temporarily useful, such as in settings with few international connections and limited response capacities.

Travel measures that significantly interfere with international traffic may only be justified at the beginning of an outbreak, as they may allow countries to gain time, even if only a few days, to rapidly implement effective preparedness measures. Such restrictions must be based on a careful risk assessment, be proportionate to the public health risk, be short in duration, and be reconsidered regularly as the situation evolves"
Click to expand...

Seems pretty blanket in it's scope.

A simple improvement would: no international travel except for food, aid, technical support.
This would free up personnel as nobody would be needed to check any tourists, and drastically slow down the spread.
 
I agree with looking at CCL soon. There are a lot of people out there similar to the posts on here that are talking/thinking "I will never go on a cruise again" that once the hysteria blows by, will be sending bookings back up.
 
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