Decline of the U.S. Middle Class?

[Cut-Throat]

Obviously you were not around during the days of
LBJ who thought that guns AND butter was a fine
policy and just about bankrupted us.

Cheers,

Charlie

Sorry Charlie -

That was peanuts compared to what "W" is doing now!

Oh, if we could only have those deficits of the 1960's!

Are you sure you were around then? I'll refresh your memory. You guys were fighting us against civil rights.

 

[Jarhead*]

Sorry Charlie -

That was peanuts compared to what "W" is doing now!

Oh, if we could only have those deficits of the 1960's!

Are you sure you were around then? I'll refresh your memory. You guys were fighting us against civil rights.

Aw, come on Cutthroat, during the Johnson Administration, I'll bet the biggest thing on your mind was "are you sure this will make you go blind? If so, maybe I'll just do it until I need glasses"

 

[charlie]

Cut, I was a Democrat with roots in Little Dixie of
southeastern Oklahoma until LBJ came along. Even
though he was from my adopted state he was by far
worse than Bush. I have voted Republican ever since
and just don't talk politics with my sainted mother or
flaming liberal brother. As for the civil rights movement,
I grew up with, loved and respected many blacks before
the movement ever started. Don't tar me with that
brush. It was the southern Democrats of your own
party that "stood in the doorstep". If not for moderate
Republicans, the civil rights act would have been delayed even more.

Cheers,

Charlie

 

[Cut-Throat]

It was the southern Democrats of your own  
party that "stood in the doorstep".  

Those were Dixiecrats that were driven from the party by Hubert Humphrey. I don't talk Democrats and Republicans. I talk Liberals and conservatives. Heck Ronald Reagan was a Democrat and so was Strom Thurmond and George Wallace. They have nothing in common with liberals, so they eventually left the party.

Just like Zell Miller who will speak at 'W's convention next week. He may call himself a Democrat today, but he's no liberal! If Abe Lincoln himself spoke at the GOP convention today, he would probably get booed out of town - Abe was a Liberal. Nope, today the GOP wants someone like Robert E. Lee! And that is why the south is firmly in the GOP back pocket!

Don't tar me with that  
brush.

So, if you are in favor of Civil Rights, what do you think of the present GOP's position on Gay Civil Rights?

 

[charlie]

Gay "civil unions" with all legal ramifications are only
fair, but the state of "holy matrimony" should be reserved for the union of a man and a woman. To me,
and millions like myself, this is a matter of faith.

I also think stem cell research, on cells earmarked for
destruction, is OK .... my thought is that human life does not begin until the embryo is implanted in a woman's womb. After that I believe that abortion for any reason other than incest, rape or saving the other's life is morally wrong. Again, these are matters of faith with me.

I don't think either party can or will do enough to reduce
our dependence on oil. It is just not politically feasible
at this time. My hope is that market forces spearheaded
by hybrid cars from Japan will force the issue. As for other tree hugger issues, I generally come down on the
side of saving jobs instead of snail darters.

I believe that Rush is a windbag and Hannity is like a
bulldog with a bone with his "talking points", but both
express views that I generally agree with (not always).
OTOH, I think Moore and his ilk spit hate against Bush
with lies and incredible distortions. Ideologues on both
sides are narrow minded bigots who never concede a
point and always bore in for the kill.

This may surprise you, but I think it would be fair to take
the cap off of SS tax altogether. At the same time, I
don't think it is fair to tax SS income. And while we are
on the subject, I think it would be a good idea to allow
each person to allocate part of his SS tax to a private
account......But I would put strict limitations on the types
of investments allowed. Something like Vanguard's
Target Retirement Series comes to mind. Something like
this, IMHO, over time is the only solution to our pending
SS crisis.

Yes, I am in favor of school vouchers and against the
incredibly inept and anachronistic school system rooted
in place today. I think the only way to cut the knot is
to add competition and accountability ..... not continue
to throw good money after bad. BTW, I don't think it
is fair to force a child to continue to go to a bad school.
Do you? Nor do I think it fair for a family who pays school taxes to have to pay the full burden of a private
school. Do you?

Surprise, I think we should do everything possible to
speed up the drug approval process on foreign (and
domestic for that matter) drugs. This should enhance
competition. Right? OTOH, I don't think the big drug companies are "evil" . After all, they may same my butt someday. Are drug profits obscene as some on the left maintain? Well, who is going to fund the research? I shudder to think of the government taking over that job. We don't want to "kill the goose" do we?

Do you want more? I could go on and on but I weary
and grow tired of this discussion, as I am sure most
who have read this far.

Cheers,

Charlie .......ZZZZZZZZZZ

 

[John Galt]

Hello Charlie. I basically agree with everything you wrote, although I am probably more extreme on
most all issues. One important issue I think you missed is gun
ownership. I think all adults (except mental cases
and convicted felons) should be allowed to be licensed
to be
"packin' heat". I trust my fellow citizens a hell of a lot
more than the government.

John Galt

 

[trumpeting_angel]

I have avoided most of this discussion like the plague, because I don't like to talk about this stuff, makes me crazy.

But I'm wondering, are there gun control laws anywhere that stop people BESIDES convicted felons and mental patients from owning guns? I know that Massachusetts (near me) supposedly has the toughest gun laws in the country, but nobody besides convicted felons and mental patients is actually banned from owning a gun.

Curious,
Anne

 

[otako]

I really don't know how the U.S. middle class can compete against the emerging middle class in third world countries i.e. India and China.  Our high standard living makes us the highest cost producer of every imaginable service or item.   With the advent of modern information technology, almost any job or service can be done overseas at the fraction of the cost of U.S. labor.  Everything from factory work to financial analyzes to medical services can be done overseas.  The Chinese and Indians alone have millions of highly educated people willing to work in white collar jobs for less than ten dollars a day.  An average salary of 10,000 a year is lot money in the third world.  They are willing to work with no benefits and no overtime pay.  They don't complain about working weekends or ask for a raise.  Many of them have PhD or masters degree with several years of experience in such high tech fields as telecommunications or engineering.

The U.S. work force is in for a rude shock in the coming years.  We are faced with a declining standard of living as we compete against a leaner and more highly motivated global work force.  We will see a declining standard of living in most areas except for government protected monopolies such law or medicine.

 

[unclemick]

We've had internal job migrations in the classic North to South - low wages, no unions, etc. Bring a few managers down, etc. I saw that as late as the seventies in LA and AL.

In the aerospace biz - during late 60's, early 70's - a lot of 'green cards went home'. In the 80's some came back, plus I hired a few engr.'s from the rust belt (auto/steel). One guy I hired twice over the years - keep getting a job in Australia - loved the out back (sort a Mad Max with a motorcycle).

This time - different with some similarities. And growing up out west - abandoned towns were old hat - mostly logging, mines, farm centers, old rail stops - some became suburbs.

 

[farmerEd]

I have avoided most of this discussion like the plague, because I don't like to talk about this stuff, makes me crazy.

But I'm wondering, are there gun control laws anywhere that stop people BESIDES convicted felons and mental patients from owning guns?  I know that Massachusetts (near me) supposedly has the toughest gun laws in the country, but nobody besides convicted felons and mental patients is actually banned from owning a gun.

Curious,
Anne

I live in Mass, supposedly the toughest laws in the country, but as a law-abiding citizen I had no problem getting a license to carry a concelaed weapon, and the right to own just about any gun except a machine gun; but even in mass, I know people who have a license for one of those to. I guess it depends a lot on the chief of police in your town (unfortunately).

 

[farmerEd]

I really don't know how the U.S. middle class can compete against the emerging middle class in third world countries i.e. India and China.  Our high standard living makes us the highest cost producer of every imaginable service or item.   With the advent of modern information technology, almost any job or service can be done overseas at the fraction of the cost of U.S. labor.  Everything from factory work to financial analyzes to medical services can be done overseas.  The Chinese and Indians alone have millions of highly educated people willing to work in white collar jobs for less than ten dollars a day.  An average salary of 10,000 a year is lot money in the third world.  They are willing to work with no benefits and no overtime pay.  They don't complain about working weekends or ask for a raise.  Many of them have PhD or masters degree with several years of experience in such high tech fields as telecommunications or engineering.

The U.S. work force is in for a rude shock in the coming years.  We are faced with a declining standard of living as we compete against a leaner and more highly motivated global work force.  We will see a declining standard of living in most areas except for government protected monopolies such law or medicine.

I agree completely...no way the average person will able to compete; some will thrive, the majority will decline into permanent lower-middle class or lower....

Lucky for me I saw this trend early, and is a big reason I could ER. During the technology boom years, as a contract programmer with my own business, I couldn't find people to hire at any price....so I ended up hiring 8 people in china at $8/hour and then another 6 in russia and billed them all out at my usually consulting rates....(over $100 hour)

Didn't last long, but it was fun while it lasted. (and like I said is why I could payoff the house, put away a pile and then ER).

And these pople I hired, almost ALL of them had PHds in areas like mathematics, physics, etc...and were DELIGHTED to be able to earn $8/hour....so was I part of the problem? maybe, but I did advertised very heavily to hire people locally first to no avail.

 

[johnblake]

I've spent many years working as an enginner and software developer. In my experience, there's much more money wasted on redesign, cancelled projects, and implementing ideas that are never fully thought through than there is on salaries for engineers. Hiring programmers in India works fine when you know exactly what you want, and can provide a detailed specification and requirements. But this amounts to 70% of the work. For easily specified projects outsourcing makes sense now. However, right here in the US there are companies working on techology that simplifies software development, so that all you have to do is describe what you want, and the tools manufacture the software. So even the $8 and hour Chinese programmers are at risk.

In addition, engineers come up the best solutions when they have close contact with customers. We used to bring engineers to customers sites and have them watch the workflow. They'd come up with unique solutions that delighted the customers, the managers, and sales and marketing folks.

Who's going to manage these programmers, interact with the customers, sell, raise money, ....?

Haven't people saying the same things about 'automation' for the last 70 years?

 

[johnblake]

One important issue I think you missed is gun
ownership. I think all adults (except mental cases
and convicted felons) should be allowed to be licensed
to be
"packin' heat". I trust my fellow citizens a hell of a lot
more than the government.

John Galt

Amendment II
A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.


'packin heat' will not be of much help when the enemy (and the government) are armed with advanced weapons systems, missles, bombs, wmd, and jumbo jets.

 

[johnblake]

Gay "civil unions" with all legal ramifications are only
fair, but the state of "holy matrimony" should be reserved for the union of a man and a woman. To me,
and millions like myself, this is a matter of faith.

I also think stem cell research, on cells earmarked for
destruction, is OK .... my thought is that human life does not begin until the embryo is implanted in a woman's womb. After that I believe that abortion for any reason other than incest, rape or saving the other's life is morally wrong. Again, these are matters of faith with me.

Hi Charlie, I respect your views and agree that these are matters of religion. That's one of the reasons why the government should not be taking a position. --JB

 

[Cut-Throat]

Haven't people saying the same things about 'automation' for the last 70 years?

JB,

Yes, but the labor pool, just got a lot bigger (due to technology) and a lot cheaper. Someone made the point that a rising tide lifts all boats. But in reality that's not true. For the tide to rise on one side of the globe, it falls on another. There is no increase in water in the Oceans. And I believe that this will happen with the labor pool also.

I don't think that this is a problem more than reality and I also think Americans don't have a God given right to a higher standard of living than the rest of the World. The problem lies in the fact that a lot of Americans do think that. And when this trend is realized there will be a politician around that will claim he can fix the problem.

 

[charlie]

I think JohnBlake is on the right track with his analysis
of the outsourcing problem. My experience as an engineering manager fits his description very well.

If we can continue to be on the leading edge of technology we will be OK. The problem is that we
are losing ground on education. I think that is the
key to the survival of our way of life.

Cheers,

Charlie

 

[unclemick]

My take on education is slightly jaundiced:

Circa 1966 - 'forget all that crap you learned across town at the U. of W. - there's only one way and it's the Boeing way - And since you're in R&D - if you produce good data - the results may show up in the design manual.'

 

[John Galt]

I want to revisit the "gun" issue briefly (my No. One
hot button). Most states allow concealed carry.
A few (including Illinois where I live) do not. In fact,
it is illegal to own a handgun in Chicago and some
suburbs. Bleeding heart liberal types have been chipping away at The Second Amendment for years
and this will continue. Even if you do not own guns,
or wish to, private ownership of firearms (I am speaking
broadly as there is little I would ban outright) is what
protects all of those other rights we hold so dear.
Speaking of the Bill of Rights, the Second Amendment is "First among Equals" in protecting your other rights.
It is naive in the extreme to expect the government
(any level) to protect you.
I think it was Franklin who
said "those who give up their freedoms for a little security deserve neither."

John Galt

 

[Cut-Throat]

Bleeding heart liberal types have been chipping away at The Second Amendment for years
and this will continue. Even if you do not own guns,
or wish to, private ownership of firearms (I am speaking
broadly as there is little I would ban outright) is what
protects all of those other rights we hold so dear.

Absolute peanuts compared to what John Ashcroft has done over the last 4 years!

 

[John Galt]

Hi Cut-Throat! I won't defend him (Ashcroft).

John Galt

 

[Marshac]

If we can continue to be on the leading edge of technology we will be OK. The problem is that we
are losing ground on education. I think that is the
key to the survival of our way of life.

I agree 100% with you. I also think that the US is missing the boat in terms of biotech research which, IMO, is the next "big thing". I have been reading about several companies moving operations overseas (europe) due to the US' restrictions on stem-cell research... regardless of what your ethical position on this matter may be, the simple fact is that companies are moving.

I also agree that a major problem in the US is our deteriorating educational system. The main problem is that we talk about how important schools and education are, but politicians rarely actually put the funding where their mouth is (nor do voters want to actually pay for it!). Take Bush for example. NCLB (No Child Left Behind) is a huge burden for schools, and has some very high stakes.... which were supposed to be mitigated by increased funding.... of which only a small fraction has actually shown up. Bush also promised additional funding ($250M) for community colleges...then cut the CC budget by $151M... it's lip service, and BOTH parties have been shown guilty of it. Here in Washington state we had a voter initiative that REQUIRED COLAs for teachers each year.... our (democratic) governor suspended these COLAs due to budget concerns. Some of the teachers I remember the most from high school have since left teaching.... not because they retired, but because they could no longer afford to continue teaching. With the traffic problems around Seattle, teachers can no longer commute to work in a timely manor, and their teaching jobs don't pay enough to allow them to live closer to their job.... so they quit. Mercer Island ($$ area) proposed building "teacher housing" to address this problem... Come On! Perhaps if we really decided to care, and to PAY for quality education, real reform would happen, but in typical American fashion, we want everything, but don't want to pay for it. How many people do you know that have voted down a school levy because they "don't have any children", or "don't have any children going to school anymore"? The real poop will hit the fan here in a few years with the emergence of "charter schools" and "school voucher" programs.... These programs will only serve to drain money away from an already underfunded school system. Sorry for the rant, but I talk to teachers every day as part of my job.... These are the issues that come up all the time. Unfortunately, if you figure that there is an 13 year lag-time (K->12th grade) between when we decide to make changes, and when we begin to see real results, we need to make changes ASAP.... How else can the US hope to compete against China, or India in the global economy? What sets our labor pool apart from those in other countries anymore? Why do we warrant such high salaries? There is no special reason why US citizens have such a high standard of living... the rest of the world doesn't "owe" us a thing.... Once people in the US wake up to this fact, it may be too late.

 

[johnblake]

Yes, but the labor pool, just got a lot bigger (due to technology) and a lot cheaper. Someone made the point that a rising tide lifts all boats. But in reality that's not true. For the tide to rise on one side of the globe, it falls on another. There is no increase in water in the Oceans. And I believe that this will happen with the labor pool also.

My understanding is that there can be an increase in the water in the oceans. GDP can be raised throughout the world, all at once. I think that this happens because of improvements to 'productivity'. Hopefully, as manufacturing (and more recently, information tech. professions) move out of the country, US workers move on to even better jobs. We saw this happen in the 1990s as manufacturing jobs were in decline, but information technology jobs accelerated.

I agree that GDP isn't a very good measure of the economy. Its like measuring a company's health my looking at revenue (not profit). A better measure is GDP per hour worked. Then adjust for resources used, and environmental destruction. Other metrics are used in combination, but generally it seems like everyone looks at GDP growth.

The 'Walmartization' of the US economy is a big risk. Those manufacturing jobs paid very well. It's hard to see how the average 'joe' who got a job in the manufacturing industry will be able to find a reasonably paying job in the years to come. If good jobs aren't available, another risk is that these people will become more dependent on the government for things like drugs and health insurance. If people think we're overtaxed now, just wait until there's a huge pool of voters that are making less than $10/hour with no benefits.

 

[unclemick]

I understand from watching Charlie Rose - Thomas L Freidman (of Lexus And tThe Olive Tree) plans to give it a shot in his next book. The flattening of the global economy theme.

Seafood imports are creaming the locals around here.

 

[otako]

My understanding is that there can be an  increase in the water in the oceans.  GDP can be raised throughout the world, all at once.   I think that this happens because of improvements to 'productivity'.  Hopefully, as manufacturing (and more recently, information tech. professions)  move out of the country, US workers move on to even better jobs.  We saw this happen in the 1990s as manufacturing jobs were in decline, but information technology jobs accelerated.  

I agree that GDP isn't a very good measure of the economy.  Its like measuring a company's  health my looking at revenue (not profit).    A better measure is GDP per hour worked.  Then adjust for resources used, and environmental destruction.  Other metrics are used in combination, but generally it seems like everyone looks at GDP growth.

The 'Walmartization' of the US economy is a big risk.   Those manufacturing jobs paid very well.  It's hard to see how the average 'joe' who got a job in the manufacturing industry will be able to find a reasonably paying job in the years to come.    If good jobs aren't available, another risk is that these people will become more dependent on the government for things like drugs and health insurance. If people think we're overtaxed now, just wait until there's a huge pool of voters that are making less than $10/hour with no benefits.

Better jobs flipping burgers or clerking at Wal-Mart?

There is no truth to the theory that new better jobs are created from jobs that leave this country.  Even during the boom times of the 90's, a lot people lost out as well paying manufacturing jobs left this country.  In comparision to wealth of manufacturing jobs that left this country, a small trickle of new IT jobs were created.  Right now, I don't see any industries present or in the horizon that could employ a lot of people such as IT and manufacturing did in the past.  In the future, a few highly educated people in select government protected industries will gain from direction the economy is moving.  The average joe will lose out against competition from India and China.

Besides, the world is catching up with our education and technology level.  Did you ever consider that new jobs won't be created in this country but in India or China?  I've seen a lot bright and highly educated Chinese workers last time I visted Asia.  

 

[Cut-Throat]

Besides, the world is catching with our education and technology level. Did you ever consider that new jobs won't be created in this country but in India or China? I've seen a lot bright and highly educated Chinese workers last time I visted Asia.

Otako is right on the money here. This is exactly the point I was trying to make. The U.S. had a huge advantage after WWII, with the rest of the world devastated. Things will be different this time.

Not sure how this will affect retirees, nest eggs and such though.