street
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- Joined
- Nov 30, 2016
- Messages
- 9,569
That graph is very informative a great snap shot for the past. Thanks
The only think I can conclude from that chart is that corrections occur irregularly, and I already knew that.One look at this chart and you might be tempted to ‘cash out for a couple years’ - MarketWatch
One look at this chart and you might be tempted to ‘cash out for a couple years’ - MarketWatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...re-than-4-decade-high-says-goldman-2018-09-06
One look at this chart and you might be tempted to ‘cash out for a couple years’ - MarketWatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...re-than-4-decade-high-says-goldman-2018-09-06
One look at this chart and you might be tempted to ‘cash out for a couple years’ - MarketWatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...re-than-4-decade-high-says-goldman-2018-09-06
The only problem I have with this graph is that it only tells you when the market stops going down, it doesn't show you how many additional years it takes to recover from the drops.
Otherwise very informative graphic.
But for folks who say - oh the 2008/2009 bear market only lasted 1.3 years, or whatever, are missing that it took 4.5 years total to get back. 1.3 years dropping, 3.2 years regaining the prior peak (total return, VTSMX). 2000-2002 bear market recovery took even longer 7 years - 2.1 to drop, then 4.9 to recover. If you go by the index alone, not counting dividends, it take a year or more longer.
Yes, a bear will come. Now? 5% higher, 10% higher, 20% higher? And then when do you get back in? Down 20%? 1991 went down 19.9%. So would you still be waiting to get back in?
Pick an AA you can live with and, well, live with it.
I don't know , but DW is again getting ready for retirement so after telling this to our Fido rep she suggested we transfer her 401 K to cash when the market hit 26000 . She told us she thinks that we are coming into the selling period and wanted DW to retire at the top of her 401K . So now we are waiting between now and March for a 10% to 20% drop ., When this happens we buy into a managed account. WHO KNOWS
l had to read this multiple times to have it sink in. Did I read that correctly, your Fido rep suggested your spouse go ALL cash when the dow hit 26000? Well, unless you (collectively) had too much equity exposure (which means you need to know what your equity exposure is and what is good for your situation in terms of growth, income, and ability to sleep at night), I would FIRE THE FIDO REP.
This is not Las Vegas with a (less than zero sum) game where you should simply cash out if you had a run at the table.
A few posts here with similar feelings...
A 10% rise in the market ago.
Yes, a bear will come. Now? 5% higher, 10% higher, 20% higher? And then when do you get back in? Down 20%? 1991 went down 19.9%. So would you still be waiting to get back in?
Pick an AA you can live with and, well, live with it.