When the Dow was 6600, I was actually predicting that it would go down to about half that by the end of 2009.
Apparently my approach to prediction is heavily influenced by (projected) persistence of recent trends.
Last year, when the DOW was at its bottom, we were looking at 5 year investment returns of zero, nada, zip. At the time, before my small pension began, we were living entirely from our investments. A five year zero return meant that effectively, we had been spending principal for five years. What if it continued? Yikes!
The five year investment return chart is still there under the personal return tab of our mutual fund site to remind us of that nightmare time and of the amazing recovery.
It turns out that the chart's earliest date corresponds to my retirement date and the time when the account was funded, so the 5 year returns begin at zero.
All's well that that ends well?
Dunno.
We didn't buy that condo we wanted (we rent). Missed opportunity? We cut back on our spending so that we were very close to living entirely from dividend income. We didn't sell anything from our plain-Jane, conservative index fund portfolio. On the other hand, we didn't rebalance when we should have either.
Predictions?
All I can say is that whatever the DOW is at year end, I will be worried... and a lot more cautious than before.