photoguy
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Jun 15, 2010
- Messages
- 2,301
SS is designed to be actuarially neutral but this cannot be true for an individual. Some demographic groups have significantly longer life expectancies (e.g. asian and hispanic females) and correspondingly others must be less.
A family history of longevity would obviously push one to taking SS at 70 and of course the opposite would be an argument for taking SS early.
I've seen various life expectancy tables but they only report the mean (or conditional mean). E.g. if you are 62 you can expect to live on average an addition 23 years. Has anybody seen a table that gives the distribution of outcomes given a starting age?
E.g. the table would have information that at age 62, 50% would live to 82, 15% would live to 90, 1% would live to 100 etc. I think this would be key to determining longevity risk. Even better if this is broken down by race and gender.
The closest information I've been able to find are tables in this paper ( http://goo.gl/lVDiXU ) which give life expectancy as of a specific age and standard deviation (it's around 10-11 years at 62).
A family history of longevity would obviously push one to taking SS at 70 and of course the opposite would be an argument for taking SS early.
I've seen various life expectancy tables but they only report the mean (or conditional mean). E.g. if you are 62 you can expect to live on average an addition 23 years. Has anybody seen a table that gives the distribution of outcomes given a starting age?
E.g. the table would have information that at age 62, 50% would live to 82, 15% would live to 90, 1% would live to 100 etc. I think this would be key to determining longevity risk. Even better if this is broken down by race and gender.
The closest information I've been able to find are tables in this paper ( http://goo.gl/lVDiXU ) which give life expectancy as of a specific age and standard deviation (it's around 10-11 years at 62).