Early Warning on the Economy?

I quit booking with Airbnb when we were booked for 3 days in placerville California in October specifically in a tourist area called Apple Hill. They texted saying there wasn’t any electricity or heat and everything was closed but they were supplying candles and blankets.

I asked for a refund and they said no even though I needed electricity for my cpap machine. I called the company and got a refund only because of the cpap machine. The whole point of going was to experience all the stores and the farms that were open to the public during that month. Plus being without heat or electricity would have been miserable.
 
Just got back from 2 week road trip from MI to ME. Hotels seemed to be full and even though we usually try to eat off hours most of the eating establishments were full. Prices are indeed up but there were lots of leaf peepers.
 
disneysteve said:
Restaurant prices have skyrocketed. Plus many have started charging an extra 3% for paying by credit card. The result is people are eating out less. When they are eating out: they’re ordering differently. They’re skipping appetizers and desserts and getting less costly entrees. They’re drinking water instead of a $4 soda or $15 cocktail.

You can’t keep hiking prices and expect nobody to notice.
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Heh, heh, this was ME back in the late 70s!
 
I got a flyer in the mail with Subway coupons (it was a separate flyer with just various Subway deals) and thought...hey, I have not had a Subway in a few years so took it in to try one of the deals (I think it was buy 1 regular price with drink get 1 free). As soon as I stepped in the door the lady at the counter said "we don't take those coupons". I glanced at the menu and saw most of the subs were $12 to $16 for foot long. There was nobody at the counter and this was 12:30pm on a Monday. I just turned and walked out.

I hope they go out of business.
 
bjlakatos said:
Restaurant pricing (first drinks then after a couple years the entree prices) has skyrocketed. Was telling DW, not sure what I am going to think when margaritas hit $20.

What continues to shock me is most of our fav places are near capacity(peak times) which implies folks are paying the inflated prices.
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I also see no apparent change-
At 5pm last Saturday, the many parking lots along "restaurant drive" nearby were as full as ever. Texas Roadhouse/Chili's/Red Lobster/Chik-Fil-A/Outback and about 5 others.
Suspect many are 2-earner working families saying "damn the torpedoes" and not giving up their break for a dinner out regardless of rising prices.
Appears these restaurants can keep raising their prices -business is good.
 
Real world & very recent slowing of the economy... The largest fair in the US just announced a 10% reduction in attendance this year. We only went to the company fair day that was paid for. Entrance and parking is about $60 for 2 & then there's the food, rides and hot tubs!

$8 corn dogs were tasty though.
 
marko said:
I was talking to a restaurant owner here north of Boston. He has a pub style place in a very touristy Halloween town where 80% of his revenue for the year arrives in October.

He said that while he's still quite busy, business "has been noticeably off" from previous years. "People used to come in for lunch and spend $70 for two. Now they split an appetizer and get two glasses of water". He noted that other restaurant owners have commented the same. A higher end restaurant in town had open tables at noon last Saturday...unheard of in October! A million tourists are still expected for the month, but seem to be watching their wallet a little more.

DW was relating this story to an acquaintance. It turns out that she owns an Airbnb in the same town. She said "I'm glad you told me that! My bookings have been down a bit and I was wondering why. I'm still busy but people seem to be shortening their stay somewhat "

So, all of this is anecdotal but it could be a canary in a coal mine on a slowing economy. People still spending but tapping the brakes just a bit?
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Anecdotal is an understatement.
 
Car-Guy said:
Funny you mention that. This was the first time I've been "inside a McDonalds store" in years. They had two inside the store but I didn't see them until it was to late.:facepalm: Amazing the things they have in the big cities. No wonder it's now ~20 bucks for two burgers these days.
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A McDouble has the same 2 patties as a Big Mac but at half the price and with less bun. You can get 2 for $7.
 
I think a lot of younger folk have got into the habit of eating out and therefore continue to do what is normal for them. It’s an easy habit to get into.

I noticed one of those outfits that sells dinner in a box to people willing to do some cooking at home is now mentioning that it’s cheaper than ordering take out and having it delivers. I can believe that.

Recently in Portugal I was advised to check the cost of an espresso. If it was much greater than one euro, the place was probably over priced. I found this to be true. I wonder if there is a similar guide we can use in the USA.
 
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Fermion said:
I got a flyer in the mail with Subway coupons...

I hope they go out of business.
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I used to be a huge Subway fan-boy. Ate there every chance I got. Now, with their prices way up, quality down, and major menu changes, including a move away from custom ordering to ordering "by the number, I'm done. Oh, and their corporate decision not to divest from Russia when it invaded its neighbor put the final nail in their coffin for me.

What's this got to do with this thread? During the last economic downturn, Subway really had the pulse of consumer sentiment. They ran their "$5 foot-long" promo at a time when everyone was fed up with high (for the time) food prices and looking to economize. They offered (back then) high-quality, fresh ingredients and ran a very efficient operation. They did a good job of marketing these benefits.

I'm looking for the next company who wakes up to reality and starts offering a similar value. I think there's a huge untapped market somewhere in the food service sector.
 
Even Chinese restaurant prices are high now, and their portions are smaller than in the US (I live in Canada). There are two different chain restaurants (bar and grill) in the area and they offer 1/2 price apps after 9pm if you order a beverage with it. I stop by after our volleyball games with friends. We go there often. I order club soda with lime/lemon wedges for my drink. I often order chicken quesadillas and the cost is around $16-$17CAD (About $11-$12USD) including tips. That, I can afford regularly... Otherwise, it hurts to dine out.
 
target2019 said:
That is interesting. In the last year of M-I-L life she had huge medical qualified deductions due to long term care facility payments. It more than wiped out the RMDs she needed to take for that year.

I may add that to notes about our investing strategy.
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Montecfo said:
So here are some data points:

Bond king Bill Gross predicting near term recession, recommending bond investments.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-king-bill-gross-says-114701560.html

Hedge fund manager abs Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman closing out short positions in bonds. Says economy slowing faster than data suggest.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ac...ries-pays-off-with-200-mln-profit-2023-10-25/

Not a huge fan of either man but both have been right more than wrong.
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So what are you suggesting?
 
G-Man said:
So what are you suggesting?
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Was an observation, not so much a suggestion of anything. But a recession will mean lower interest rates I would expect. So if that's right you probably want to think about locking in.

Equities a bit less defined. If earnings have bottomed after several quarters of decline, then maybe we rally if the market views rates have also topped.

Now if things heat up in the Middle East, stocks will likely fall and bonds rally.

I've raised a little cash for buying opportunities.
 
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twirler said:
Anecdotal is an understatement.
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Add up enough anecdotes and pretty soon you have real data. Maybe we should ask folks here if they've seen anything go DOWN in price. I haven't.
 
Fermion said:
I got a flyer in the mail with Subway coupons (it was a separate flyer with just various Subway deals) and thought...hey, I have not had a Subway in a few years so took it in to try one of the deals (I think it was buy 1 regular price with drink get 1 free). As soon as I stepped in the door the lady at the counter said "we don't take those coupons". I glanced at the menu and saw most of the subs were $12 to $16 for foot long. There was nobody at the counter and this was 12:30pm on a Monday. I just turned and walked out.

I hope they go out of business.
Click to expand...


It's been a long time since we've gone to a Subway, and this is one reason why not. Most of our Subways don't honor coupons that are everywhere these days. AND their prices have gone up dramatically. YMMV
 
Koolau said:
It's been a long time since we've gone to a Subway, and this is one reason why not. Most of our Subways don't honor coupons that are everywhere these days. AND their prices have gone up dramatically. YMMV
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Same here. Haven't been to Subway in years. Jimmy Johns, Penn Station and Jersey Mikes are all much better.
 
Koolau said:
It's been a long time since we've gone to a Subway, and this is one reason why not. Most of our Subways don't honor coupons that are everywhere these days. AND their prices have gone up dramatically. YMMV
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Same here, our subway doesn't honor the coupons :facepalm:
I thought they were a franchise :confused:
 
The other day, one of my housemates went into a Subway with a coupon for 3 footlongs for $17.99 or somewhere thereabouts. At first, they tried to deny the coupon, but he persisted, and they honored it. It turns out, there was some kind of "MVP specialty" subs that they didn't apply to, but none of those subs were what we were getting.
 
Subway does work on an independent franchisee model. I feel kinda bad for the small business owners getting screwed by their corporate overlords, but that's how things work in that market.

The fact that they franchisees don't want to honor coupons that the corporate marketing folks distributes says a lot about how the company is run.

The good news is that we're starting to see Jersey Mike's and Firehouse Subs popping up around here. When one company falters, there's always another ready to step up to the plate. Frankly, I don't see subs as the quick, easy, cheap meal they used to be. If I'm going to spend that kind of money on take-out food, there are other options.
 
Not sure I see a record but it beat expectations. And inflation as measured by the core PCE very low at 2.4%.

If we can have steady growth and low inflation that would be nirvana. But according to the report, the GDP growth was fueled by pulldowns of savings and increases in credit card debt. Accordingly, this does not appear to be sustainable.

But I would expect it takes us into 2024 minimum.
 
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