Estimating future SS benefits, assuming RE

[Skeptic]

I think there must be an FAQ or something for this, but I can't find it: What's the trick for getting the ssa.gov social security calculator to come up with an estimate that accounts for early retirement? I mean, the default results I get are of the form

If you start your benefits: At age XX
And you earn an average of: $XXX,XXX a year (from now until age XX)
Your benefit will be about: $X,XXX a month

But I want to know how much I might get if I stop earning $XXX,XXX at age YY < XX.

- Sceptic

 

[cathy63]

I found that the website estimator is only useful for early retirement if you plan to retire in 2018 and can put $0 for all future years. If you want to model retiring in 2020 or some other future year, then you need to download AnyPIA (aka Detailed Calculator) from here: https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/anypia/anypia.html

 

[bingybear]

long time since I've done it. Estimate your benefits... you will need identifying info. It will give you the 3 typical cases. Do a custom one with all future earnings being 0 until the age you want to take it.

Alternative, download the PIA calculator. Input your info and run your cases.

 

[timo2]

Here is the site that had some information I found useful for performing the calculation you want.

https://www.newretirement.com/answers/10031/stop-working-at-62-but-don-t-collect-until-66.aspx

From the article:"For example, my full retirement age is 67. Once I enter the necessary information in the following link (for your retirement year, enter the year that you will turn 62. For the retirement month, choose the month right after your birth month).
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/quickcalc/early_late.html
It calculates that my social security benefits will be 70.42% of my PIA if I choose to take benefits at 62. Your percentage may be different. Now if my social security benefits at age 62 are estimated to be 1,500 I can calculate what my PIA is by taking 1,500 and dividing it by 70.42% or .7042.
1,500/.7042 = 2,130 This is my PIA. This is what I will be receiving per month in social security benefits if I stop working at 62 and don’t collect social security benefits until my full retirement age. This amount is less than what my social security statement is estimating I will receive if I work until my full retirement age and it should be because my statement calculates my full retirement benefits assuming I will continue working past age 62"

 

[Independent]

I don't know how to make the calculator do what you want.

Instead, I would go here: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/retirebenefit1.html
, copy the example into a spreadsheet, and plug in my own numbers.

Then I can do all the variations that I like.

 

[jim584672]

I don't know how to make the calculator do what you want.

Instead, I would go here: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/retirebenefit1.html
, copy the example into a spreadsheet, and plug in my own numbers.

Then I can do all the variations that I like.

That is what I did. Put in my earnings record and multiplied by the index factors. Added them up divide by 420 (35 years). Apply the bend points to get the FRA (age 67 for me) amount. Reduce or add percentages to get the 62 through 70 amounts.

 

[Skeptic]

Thanks for all the ideas. I found BingyBear's "custom one" easiest to navigate: it was a bit tedious to transfer my earnings record from one ssa.gov page to the other, but it did the trick.

 

[scrabbler1]

I don't know how to make the calculator do what you want.

Instead, I would go here: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/retirebenefit1.html
, copy the example into a spreadsheet, and plug in my own numbers.

Then I can do all the variations that I like.

I initially had trouble getting the AnyPIA program to work. I had already created a spreadsheet to mimic the program, however, so I wanted to have the AnyPIA program simply act as a check on my spreadsheet. Eventually, I got the AnyPIA program to work and it at most $1 off my monthly benefit.

Because my wage earnings stopped in 2008, the only thing which affects my estimated (frozen, mostly) benefit is the list of wage index factors which changes very slightly each year.

 

[teejayevans]

That is what I did. Put in my earnings record and multiplied by the index factors. Added them up divide by 420 (35 years). Apply the bend points to get the FRA (age 67 for me) amount. Reduce or add percentages to get the 62 through 70 amounts.

I did this as well, but My full retirement age is 67, if you in the gray area where your age at retirement is less than 67, there is extra calculations you need to do.