Bit off more than I can chew in this subject. ERD50's link included a source that discusses food supply through the year 2050 and beyond. "World Agriculture"
http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/ap106e/ap106e.pdf
Reading material for several hours, but in general, projects world land use and population growth. Enough to make your head swim with numbers that make what we have and do in the US seem almost superflous.
The general projection is that there will be enough land and food, but that shifts in population in different parts of the globe and calories consumed will be marked different from what we see today.
The single caveat is the absence of global catastrophes... war, disease, pestilence. So much for long term. Short term, maybe another story. My guess woud be too early to look at emerging technology for supplementing or replacing the shortages we face today, but longer term, certainly
What started my speculation was the current news headlines about the spread of the avian flu, and the expected rise in chicken and egg prices. Hearing the 30 million hens have been euthanized doesn't really register as much as hearing that one of the three largest poultry farms has been shut down. In egg laying birds alone (estimate 300million) the current estimated number of euthanized birds ranges from 33 million to 60 million. This does not include other birds, such as turkeys. The other part of this is the unseen ripple effect on other foods that contain eggs... so not just the breakfast food. Prices are already rising up to 20%.
Since food represents about 7% of the US family's expense, increases are not as obvious as in other countries... ie. Russian spends 33% of the family income on food at home...China, 21%, and Egypt 44%. Imports and exports work into US markets, so changes may be greater than might be expected when just looking at the US consumption.
The subject of prices is not without contrarians, evidence this Forbes article, thet basically suggests that the market is being artificially manipulated, for short term gain.
Why Bubble Prices In Beef, Poultry And Pork Will Collapse, And How To Profit - Forbes
Whether the media overplays things like the "swine flu" (currently believed to be under control) and the effect of water shortages on California foods... still to be determined... is another major question.
Maybe the idea of "investing" is a little premature.
There is definitely one major area that is not in dispute, and that is the changes in futures markets. Inevitably, balanced on the thin edge of expectations... weather, production anomolies, and industry experts reflect in futures trading. As good as the information may be, no guarantees.
We live in the middle of the Illinois corn belt. Contracts are being signed every day for corn and soybean futures. The prudent farmer has little to lose but the prices will change by the minute over the period betwen now and fall harvest. Not just on the basis of the expected crop, but on the status of each and every part of the food and fuel chain.
Backing longer term technologies is much different than investing in agriculture. Too complicated for me.
Anyone here understand futures well enough to shed light on food as an investment?
