Forget Balancing - sold all my 401k equities funds and put it in the safe short term

[youbet]

Kudos for trolling?
This thread has been spinning its wheels in confusion. What's the point?

Maybe it was trolling........ But I sensed from the get-go that Ray constructed his post so that his overall AA would be unknown and it might appear, to folks that like to assume or jump to conclusions, that he himself was bailing to 100% cash. That brought out a lot of interesting comments and revelations about various posters' personal positions on the market.

I do note Ray himself has yet to give us much of a clue regarding his current total AA or his plans going forward though.......

 

[43210]

^ I strongly disagree. Being upfront and straightforward with the information would be a vastly superior to set the conversation going.

 

[youbet]

^ I strongly disagree. Being upfront and straightforward with the information would be a vastly superior to set the conversation going.

Hey, I'm not defending Ray's approach. You're making quite a stretch in implying that I was.

I'm just giving him credit for pulling it off resulting in a seven page thread.

 

[43210]

Sure, but a thread that is one quarter the length, with five times as much information, is twenty times better.

 

[youbet]

Sure, but a thread that is one quarter the length, with five times as much information, is twenty times better.

So go start one........

 

[haha]

Good on you Ray - hard pressed to imagine that various companies are worth the amount people are paying for them now - Amazon up 46% since 2/2017? Looking at our NW I fantasize about selling the rentals and stocks and going to all cash. Our annual spending indicates that we could make it till 100 years of age spending at 2017 equivalent with the cash stuffed in a mattress and 4% inflation. Gal is NOT a fan of such talk - she feels I need to keep shuffling paper for profit and enjoying the rental excitement.

I feel you though - if you have enough why take risk? What would have a greater impact on your life? A 30% drop in your investable assets or a 30% increase? If you don't need MORE! then the potential loss is more worrisome than the potential gain is satisfying.

Utility theory pretty much guarantees that this is correct. Eventually the worm will turn, and we will find more members who will wish that they had realized this. When I get ideas that I should take chips off the table, I play a video of Kenny Rogers as The Gambler, and take chips off the table. I usually will not advertise the move on the board. I don't much care what others think about my moves, and I do not want to read the second guessing if I publicize my moves. I am at best only medium smart, but more importantly I am at least better than medium dumb.

It is definite that if I had done various things differently I might be more (or less) wealthy than I am. Still, I have no regrets and I would not like to exchange my judgments with anyone else.

It is much easier to be dumb than smart. but for some things all you need to make the cut is to be better than chicken scratching stupid.

Ha

 

[Pilot2013]

but more importantly I am at least better than medium dumb. Ha

"Life is tough, it's even tougher when your stupid"

John Wayne

 

[GravitySucks]

Ahh the Long Troll.
Sign up 3.5 years ago, share personal info and feelings for years
Then...
BAM.
Pull the troll.
Kudos Dear Sir RayinPenn, Kudos.

Also, congrats on working out your new AA. Best of luck with it. May you sleep well and stay profitable.

 

[rayinpenn]

Yesterday I sold all my 401k equity funds (S&P, Large Cap, International).

Wow tuff audience here. Now I am a troll? Sweet Moses shame on you!
1) Did I say I sold all my equities? No.
2) Did I imply I sold all my equities? No
3) Did you read carefully? I don’t believe so.
4) I posted to get your collective prospective and perhaps calm me down. I didn’t sell anymore today so In the end I’m roughly 60 equities / 40 and at 63 some might call that aggressive.

Troll? Wow yup that’s me...

 

[daylatedollarshort]

Utility theory pretty much guarantees that this is correct. Eventually the worm will turn, and we will find more members who will wish that they had realized this. When I get ideas that I should take chips off the table, I play a video of Kenny Rogers as The Gambler, and take chips off the table. I usually will not advertise the move on the board. I don't much care what others think about my moves, and I do not want to read the second guessing if I publicize my moves. I am at best only medium smart, but more importantly I am at least better than medium dumb.

I post about our strategies as I assume there are other people out there like we were 5 - 10 years ago looking for alternatives to relying on unpredictable stock market returns to fund retirement and not wanting have to worry about another 2008 or dot.com crash in retirement. I post some of the same comments on Reddit and usually get a fair number of upvotes, so I know there is an interested audience out there somewhere.

 

[sengsational]

Troll? Wow yup that’s me...

I'm sure most of us never would have even thought the label on you, much less used it. But I did say that "Ray drops to 60% equities" wouldn't generate too much conversation.

Sorry for the first season reference, but I just have to:

 

[GravitySucks]

Troll? Wow yup that’s me...

Just kidding Ray, enjoy your posts on parenting, work, life, and the human touch.

 

[LOL!]

Wow tuff audience here. Now I am a troll? Sweet Moses shame on you!

You had the opportunity to clarify early on when this thread went off the rails.

But now that it is really way off the rails, let's see if it can go 9 more pages.

 

[REWahoo]

Troll? I thought he was actually an old inmate named Raymond who had internet privileges.

 

[LOL!]

Troll? I thought he was actually an old inmate named Raymond who had internet privileges.

I know a dog like that, but his name is Max because he was raised by the inmates in the maximum security row here in Huntsville.

 

[43210]

Okay, I've been persuaded. I've exchanged my entire beanie baby collection for bitcoins.

 

[target2019]

Internet Troll defined here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

That ain't ray.

 

[rayinpenn]

Ive been thinking about it.. yeah Me a buy and hold guy goes over to the other side. Why? Scared about the economy - basically we’ve climbed that hill now Id like to enjoy the view. But if your also a buy and holdster and your doing real well - perhaps it gets you to start thinking.. You remember the credit crisis and how bad it got.

I don’t know anything other then I’d like to lock in some gains. As hard as it was to do it -It’s done.

 

[MichaelB]

Ive been thinking about it.. yeah Me a buy and hold guy goes over to the other side. Why? Scared about the economy - basically we’ve climbed that hill now Id like to enjoy the view. But if your also a buy and holdster and your doing real well - perhaps it gets you to start thinking.. You remember the credit crisis and how bad it got.

I don’t know anything other then I’d like to lock in some gains. As hard as it was to do it -It’s done.

What specifically worries you about the economy?

 

[HMMY]

LOL. I did exactly what OP did in August. I cashed out my 401k from 80/20 to mostly CDs and bond fund; however, mine was not prompted by market timing or foreboding. I reduced from 70/30 overall to 55/45 as part of my FIRE plan and needed to cash out my 401k to get to my scheduled retirement allocation.

Perhaps, the way OP presented his news was sensationalistic, but his end portfolio is absolutely reasonable for his age and need to take risk. Enjoy the fruits of your labor!

 

[Texas Proud]

Ive been thinking about it.. yeah Me a buy and hold guy goes over to the other side. Why? Scared about the economy - basically we’ve climbed that hill now Id like to enjoy the view. But if your also a buy and holdster and your doing real well - perhaps it gets you to start thinking.. You remember the credit crisis and how bad it got.

I don’t know anything other then I’d like to lock in some gains. As hard as it was to do it -It’s done.

Just to be clear, a buy and hold does not hold forever...

First, if there are gains in one side or the other, they rebalance... some will do it more often than others, but they will sell...

Also, almost all buy and hold that I have heard from on here also makes adjustments to their AA over time.... IOW, at this age I am 75/25, and this other age 60/40 and late in life could be 40/60....


The first is decided by the market going up... but it is not 'timing'... timing is taking a chunk of money out of the market with the hope of the market going down and then putting the money back in the market...


So, from your posts I cannot say what you really intend... IOW, you do not seem to really be market timing as you do not say you will get back in, but maybe you will.... you did not say you were rebalancing either, which you might have fallen under but with what you say in OP I would say not... and, even though you are changing your AA, I do not think it is planned, nor do you say you are sticking with one....



BTW, I would take a look at your company stock... there is a way to get the gain out of it 'free'.... that is if you have a good amount of gain... but, you have to take everything out and roll over the other money....

 

[audreyh1]

My understanding of a buy and hold investor is that they do not rebalance. Certainly Bogle did not view rebalancing as particularly desirable.

There are a variety of ways to find buy-and-hold stocks. The asset allocation is allowed to vary significantly from the starting allocation as risky assets, such as stocks, increase or decrease. Buy-hold is essentially a "do not rebalance" strategy and a truly passive strategy.

from investopedia

 

[Pellice]

The question I ask myself: do I need to maximize (or almost maximize) my returns to reach my goal of financial independence. Conversely, will my goal of financial independence be obstructed by a severe market downturn (pick your %).

For me, the goal is NOT the best combination of investment to reach superior returns. My goal is financial independence.

 

[Texas Proud]

My understanding of a buy and hold investor is that they do not rebalance. Certainly Bogle did not view rebalancing as particularly desirable.
from investopedia

I looked at the definition and I think they were comparing it to an active investor, so I would say this definition does not take into account rebalancing... I did not see Bogle in that definition, so you must have seen it somewhere else...


But, I see that another place takes that into account and does say buy and hold does not rebalance... so I will adjust

Buy and Hold Definition & Example | InvestingAnswers

The method is call asset allocation (duh).... but they say that is 'active'...

Asset Allocation Definition & Example | InvestingAnswers

 

[Big_Hitter]

good move Ray - DW is in bed blaming me for the few hundred K we've lost the last week