(Trying out this new fancy multireply thingymabob.)
I'm only concerned if you used to work at Enron in the accounting area..........
Nope, never worked for them. Although if you have problems with a laser printer from a large, well-known manufacturer of same, I may be at fault.
Well, since it will impact the rest of your life, I would check it closely.
Yup, plan to. The error in this case revolved around my child support payments, which drop off over time as my kids become emancipated. Since this is a significant part of my budget, I have to do several things:
1. Model the drop off in my expenses over time.
2. Figure out the NPV of my future CS expenses at any given month in the future.
3. Model the increased savings I will be able to do (in theory, anyway) as my CS payments drop.
The fact your spreadsheet "mistake" delayed your ER 2 years simply means you will be a conservative CFP. One who builds in extra safety margins. That is a good thing.
Yeah, I'm nearly as conservative as Want2Retire, although I plan on spending the same in retirement, not more ;-).
FWIW, the bigger mistakes (don't ask me how I know) get fewer and more obvious the close you get to FIRE.
Oh dear. Sounds like the voice of experience ;-).
-- My spreadsheet tells me I can retire in the month in which my expenses hit 4% of my FIRE assets, so I only have it narrowed down to the month. You'll notice that all my retirement dates I've ever posted here are an integral number of months away from the day I posted them ;-).
I figure (a) within a month is close enough for now for planning purposes; things are very likely going to happen to change that number anyway, and (b) when I get closer I suspect that other factors may come into play -- I may be forced to retire a little early, or I may stay a little later. Too early to tell.
I say check it again add some fudge factors to get you to FIRE tomorrow....
I actually did a little sensitivity analysis and discovered that if I manage to maintain 0% inflation in my current expenses, increase my 401(k) savings rate from 20% to 25%, and retire on a 5% withdrawal rate, that I could retire at 46. I don't think I can at this point reasonably expect to do any better than that...
I should have retired 10 years ago but I couldn't sustain 25% average returns for the past 20 years............
Wait, I thought you were a guru?!?
2Cor521
