Future of Economy and Inflation

[harllee]

I was speaking to a real estate agent in the area where my summer home is located (NC mountains) and she says they are seeing a fairly significant downtown in housing prices and demand. This is a resort area, mainly second homes. She also told me that vacation rentals for this summer are off by about 25% over last summer at this time. In the 2008 recession real estate sales and prices dropped in resort areas first, I wonder if that is happening now.

 

[almost there]

The govt. bought its way out of the last recession or 2.
Not thinking it can happen again.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

I guess it depends on how much of this is self inflicted.

p.s. I just heard on the news that they are reprogramming the pumps to accommodate $10 on up gas prices.

I currently live in the UK. We've been around $10/US Gallon for a few weeks. I have a 3-cylinder car and its been costing me about US$90 to fill it up.

I'm back in the US for a few days. I paid $4.75/gallon to fill up our Mazda CX-5 and for about $50 and thought "Wow! Pretty cheap!"

 

[GenXguy]

It's not just the high cost of gas itself, but that and diesel feeds into the cost of everything else. I heard a $6/gal is coming over the summer, and someone at work was telling me that he heard $10/gal. Crazy.

 

[almost there]

It's not just the high cost of gas itself, but that and diesel feeds into the cost of everything else. I heard a $6/gal is coming over the summer, and someone at work was telling me that he heard $10/gal. Crazy.

Have had to pay $6.00 since late Feb. Fun stuff.

 

[Chuckanut]

I paid over $5 a gallon for the first time about a week ago.

Thankfully, my RAV 4 Hybrid is getting above 40 mpg now that the weather has warmed up a bit. Somebody please turn off my Gloat-O-Meter before it goes off the scale.

 

[REWahoo]

It's not just the high cost of gas itself, but that and diesel feeds into the cost of everything else.

And to add insult (and more inflationary pressure) to injury: Diesel Exhaust Fluid is another victim of the supply chain crisis

For those of you not familiar with Diesel Exhaust Fluid (DEF), all US diesel engines produced after 2010 are required to use DEF to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide. Without DEF, these engines will not run.

 

[cyber888]

I was speaking to a real estate agent in the area where my summer home is located (NC mountains) and she says they are seeing a fairly significant downtown in housing prices and demand. This is a resort area, mainly second homes. She also told me that vacation rentals for this summer are off by about 25% over last summer at this time. In the 2008 recession real estate sales and prices dropped in resort areas first, I wonder if that is happening now.

25% - you sure? I thought they were increasing higher in the Boone area.

 

[harllee]

25% - you sure? I thought they were increasing higher in the Boone area.

Yes, down 25% for summer rentals in the Banner Elk area. Of course everything is rented for July 4 and Grandfather games. Look at AirBnb/VRBO there are plenty of summer rentals left for most dates in Banner Elk which is unusual for summer. I don't know about hotels in Boone, I have not looked at them. But Boone does not have many airbnb type rentals because of ordinance rules. Regarding sales, there are more listings on Realtor.com for the Banner Elk area than there have been for years and it looks like prices are creeping down too. I follow real estate in the Banner Elk area and I am now getting notices of price reductions which I was not seeing in the last few years.

 

[finnski1]

I paid over $5 a gallon for the first time about a week ago.

Thankfully, my RAV 4 Hybrid is getting above 40 mpg now that the weather has warmed up a bit. Somebody please turn off my Gloat-O-Meter before it goes off the scale.

We got back home on May 16th from a 5 week road trip out west. Somehow we managed to never pay $5/gallon. However I just looked and gas in Phoenix is over $5. It was only about $4.19 when we went thru a month ago. Regardless we spent $2300 on gas in 5 weeks. Ouch. Only got 16.3 mpg but we were pulling a camper and some of the passes exceeded 11000 feet.

Gas averaged $4.30/gallon for the entire trip. From a low of $3.39 in Arkansas to a high around$4.89 out west. Looks like it could add another $7-800 if we did the trip now.
Still we had a great time and saw 9 national parks plus The Outer banks of NC and Assateague Island national seashore.
Your Gloat O Meter seems fine to me.

 

[GenXguy]

Have had to pay $6.00 since late Feb. Fun stuff.

$4.89 highest price for the regular gas here - hasn't quite hit $5 at any local stations, yet. Probably soon.

 

[Chuckanut]

My short road trip did reveal that every hotel we stayed in had plenty of empty rooms. I am wondering if the hotels have not gone overboard in raising prices. There were plenty of vacancy signs at other hotels in the area.

Maybe the spending spree is coming to an end? Or at least slowing down?

 

[almost there]

My short road trip did reveal that every hotel we stayed in had plenty of empty rooms. I am wondering if the hotels have not gone overboard in raising prices. There were plenty of vacancy signs at other hotels in the area.

Maybe the spending spree is coming to an end? Or at least slowing down?

A friend who owns a 6m. a year online retail Co. claims we are already in a recession. Will see....

 

[harllee]

My short road trip did reveal that every hotel we stayed in had plenty of empty rooms. I am wondering if the hotels have not gone overboard in raising prices. There were plenty of vacancy signs at other hotels in the area.

Maybe the spending spree is coming to an end? Or at least slowing down?

I would think that gas prices will definitely affect road trips this summer and also RV travel, those motorhomes and pull behinds suck up the fuel.

 

[NW-Bound]

We got back home on May 16th from a 5 week road trip out west. Somehow we managed to never pay $5/gallon. However I just looked and gas in Phoenix is over $5. It was only about $4.19 when we went thru a month ago. Regardless we spent $2300 on gas in 5 weeks. Ouch. Only got 16.3 mpg but we were pulling a camper and some of the passes exceeded 11000 feet...

16.3 mpg is double the gas mileage I had on my class C pulling a toad.

 

[NW-Bound]

I saw an Web article saying flight bookings for leisure travel are at 25% above pre-Covid level in 2019. Business travel has recovered to 2019 level.

Another article says consumer spending still went up in April, and was up 6.3% year-over-year.

Perhaps the consumer pulled in his horn in May, which there's not yet data on.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

I saw an Web article saying flight bookings for leisure travel are at 25% above pre-Covid level in 2019. Business travel has recovered to 2019 level.

Another article says consumer spending still went up in April, and was up 6.3% year-over-year.

Perhaps the consumer pulled in his horn in May, which there's not yet data on.

The data will be interesting. I think it takes time for people to absorb what the price increases really mean. Its one thing to be taken aback at the pump or what something costs in the store. Its another to see the sum total impact of those buying decisions on your credit card statements or bank account at the end of the month.

Absent some government lunacy to address high prices by sprinkling cash on everyone, I suspect we will see substantial spending declines over the summer and into the autumn.

We're trying to buy a house in the fall, so I'm also hopeful that by then the rate increases and negative wealth effect have really taken hold and pulled the legs out from under the housing madness.

 

[finnski1]

16.3 mpg is double the gas mileage I had on my class C pulling a toad.

Yes I know. It's all relative. 16.3 pulling a camper is actually excellent in the trailer world. It was a great trip.

 

[GenXguy]

The data will be interesting. I think it takes time for people to absorb what the price increases really mean. Its one thing to be taken aback at the pump or what something costs in the store. Its another to see the sum total impact of those buying decisions on your credit card statements or bank account at the end of the month..

I read that the savings rate fell last month to the lowest level since 2008, but Americans had built up greater savings since the beginning of the pandemic, so it's going to take a while to spend that down.

 

[almost there]

I read that the savings rate fell last month to the lowest level since 2008, but Americans had built up greater savings since the beginning of the pandemic, so it's going to take a while to spend that down.

Have been reading the same. And it makes sense. A bit sad though, as you can see where this is going.
Like a slow motion train wreck. But we know how we got here.
So it really should not come as much of a surprise.

 

[Chuckanut]

FWIW, on his Friday (5/27) podcast, Clark Howard listed a number of items that are now over supplied and going on sale. Included are: robotic vacuums, air fryers, home gym equipment, some washers and dryers, mattresses, and some types of furniture.

It stars at about 14 minutes.

https://clark.com/podcasts/05-27-22-clark-answers-his-critics-on-clark-stinks-where-the-deals-are/

 

[Koolau]

FWIW, on his Friday (5/27) podcast, Clark Howard listed a number of items that are now over supplied and going on sale. Included are: robotic vacuums, air fryers, home gym equipment, some washers and dryers, mattresses, and some types of furniture.

It stars at about 14 minutes.

https://clark.com/podcasts/05-27-22-clark-answers-his-critics-on-clark-stinks-where-the-deals-are/

Well, that's good news as I'm in the market for a new mattress.

But in line with the general tone of the thread, I have to agree with almost there. We're watching a slow-motion train wreck and there isn't a whole lot we can do about it. YMMV

 

[Chuckanut]

I guess it depends on how much of this is self inflicted.

p.s. I just heard on the news that they are reprogramming the pumps to accommodate $10 on up gas prices.

Or they can use this trick from back in the 1970's when prices went above 99.9¢ and pumps could not. Just post 1/2 the price on the pump and double it when paid.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Or they can use this trick from back in the 1970's when prices went above 99.9¢ and pumps could not. Just post 1/2 the price on the pump and double it when paid.

Or just finally get rid of the damn extra $0.009/gallon once and for all!

 

[aja8888]

They could always start charging by the quart like Canada does with liters.