Good move or Bad move??

[Cut-Throat]

I think most would agree we are in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear.  The downside will be bloody ... when is anybody's quess.  That's why I am in real estate with 75% of my wad.  That has a different set of "worries".

Here is the Dow for the last 75 years or so.  If you know the cycle we're at, you are better at investing than me. That's why I don't try to time the market.

 

[JPatrick]

Here is the Dow for the last 75 years or so.  If you know the cycle we're at, you are better at investing than me. That's why I don't try to time the market.

At a glance that chart says - -wow buy and hold the dow for a long time and you can't miss.  That is until you think about the 1929 crash. Those that were able to stay in the market only had to wait until 1954 to see the DOW recover to the 1929 high.  Look at some of those years during the 65 - 80 time frame.
I wasn't around in the 20's, but I'm told that the precrash signs were pretty clear.  Can you say greed?  I was around for the recent tech bubble and the signs were very clear especially near the end, still many stayed the course til the bottom.  Yes, I think you can figure out roughly where we are in a particular cycle.  The age old problem for individual investors has been and continues to be buying high and selling low which has nothing to do with charts, but pure emotion.

 

[malakito]

Malakito-A long time ago my wife was in Pisa, sitting in an outdoor cafe. Two middle-aged couples from Texas were seated at a nearby table. One lady was trying to convinnce her friend to do some more sightseeing with her, as the two husbands were definitely done for the day.

The lady who wanted to go sightseeing said "Come on, there is so much to see here." Her friend replied, "Honey, I seen the thang leanin', and that's enough for me."

Well, I seen the thang leanin' too.

ha

HaHa,

Sorry, I must be particularly dense. I don't get what you are saying, and since you've engaged in respectful dialogue on the subject, I figure it's worth asking: Would you make your point plainly? Thanks.

malakito

 

[Cut-Throat]

Yes, I think you can figure out roughly where we are in a particular cycle.

OK, tell us where we're at? -Most of your post you told us what happended in the past? - We all can do that!

 

[JPatrick]

In a few minutes I will have liquidated about 50% of my IRA.  Selling a variety of mutual funds with the biggest chunk from an S&P 500 index fund.  Most of this to sit in a MM account for the time being, while some goes into oil and oil service.
My thought process- - I think the next few weeks o even until after Labor Day could be tough sledding due to the Feds action, oil prices, terror/war, 2nd qtr downers and on and on.
On the other hand oil still looks good for now and seems to be about the only investment I want to hold over long weekends.
For the cash I have raised I'm looking at putting it in my high yield funds.

Good Move or Otherwise?

Cut throat/
My post tells you what I did yesterday and why I thought that was the right move (for me). Keep in mind, I don't plan to put that cash under the sealy posturepedic, I think I can find a way to beat the overall market for a few weeks. I said I bought more oil and I probably should have bought even more. My vanguard high yield pays about 7%. Another possibility for a few weeks. Remember, what I sold most of was the 500 index and beating that lately has not been much of a challenge.

 

[haha]

Years ago Ben Graham said if you are uninterested in investing, don't want to do the work, and have no particular talent for it, buy a diversified list of blue chip stocks and AAA bonds and sit tight.

OTOH, if this does not describe you, it's a free country, give it a try.

Ha

 

[haha]

HaHa,

Sorry, I must be particularly dense.  I don't get what you are saying, and since you've engaged in respectful dialogue on the subject, I figure it's worth asking:  Would you make your point plainly?  Thanks.

malakito

malakito,
I don't explain jokes either. I have been studying UncleMick's oracular posts, so I thought I would try some for myself. It's like a koan- maybe it means something, maybe not.

Ha

 

[Marshac]

In a few minutes I will have liquidated about 50% of my IRA.  Selling a variety of mutual funds with the biggest chunk from an S&P 500 index fund.  Most of this to sit in a MM account for the time being, while some goes into oil and oil service.
My thought process- - I think the next few weeks o even until after Labor Day could be tough sledding due to the Feds action, oil prices, terror/war, 2nd qtr downers and on and on.
On the other hand oil still looks good for now and seems to be about the only investment I want to hold over long weekends.
For the cash I have raised I'm looking at putting it in my high yield funds.

Good Move or Otherwise?

I did this about 2 weeks ago. So far, I have been very happy with my decision...... now i'm just looking for the right time to hop back into the market. Not yet though....

 

[malakito]

malakito,
I don't explain jokes either. I have been studying UncleMick's oracular posts, so I thought I would try some for myself. It's like a koan- maybe it means something, maybe not.

Ha

Fair enough. Interesting you mention unclemick. I've always felt like he's saying something important but at least half the time I can't understand him either.

malakito.

 

[TromboneAl]

Would you make your point plainly?

The leaning tower of Pisa is a metaphor for the relationship betweeen Keynesian economics and the Wydoff variant of efficient market theory.

 

[haha]

The leaning tower of Pisa is a metaphor for the relationship betweeen Keynesian economics and the Wydoff variant of efficient market theory.

Thank you, Al. I couldn't have said it more clearly.

Ha

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

How about pictorially?

 

[Eagle43]

Fair enough. Interesting you mention unclemick. I've always felt like he's saying something important but at least half the time I can't understand him either.

malakito.

I think Unclemick is drinking a lot of Community Coffee and Chicory. Anyway, he's the Alan Greenspan on the forum. Unclemickspeak will be dissected for years. Heh heh heh!

 

[unclemick]

I have three women - SO, 88 yr old mom, and step daughter in spare room who make similar statements.

Now that I'm older - the neighbors no longer whisper - "What's wrong with that boy?"

I thought being a left handed, INTJ, en-ga-neer was self explanatory.

 

[HFWR]

My answer: Most new money is going to cash, as are divvies. Sold a little gold today, too, to rebalance slightly - just in time for Fortune to opine about $500 gold. I don't want to sell much; gonna stick with slice/dice. But I want some cash for bargain-hunting, when the time is right.

 

[JPatrick]

I see the Vanguard Energy fund has reopened (VGENX).
I'd say this is the kingfish of energy funds and I've been waiting on the edge of my chair to add it to /and in place of some Fidelity/ETF's, but alas, now that it has opened the door  I don't think I can justify the $25K entry given todays oil price. 
Next pullback I'll be adding this jewel.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I thought the same thing and then after watching it continue to go up, bought some. My shortest term holding in 2004, yet my highest returning.

I would have the same reservations about buying it now. I think oil WILL go down...but not a lot and I think high oil prices are here to stay.

 

[JPatrick]

I thought the same thing and then after watching it continue to go up, bought some.  My shortest term holding in 2004, yet my highest returning.

I would have the same reservations about buying it now.  I think oil WILL go down...but not a lot and I think high oil prices are here to stay.

Good purchase.  The returns on this jewel are through the roof.
I think the good times will continue, but the "timer" in me says to wait a bit.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Buy on a dip. I might. I'd like more energy holdings as a long term (10-20 year) bucket.

 

[Spanky]

What is an attractive dip (i.e., % of decline from current price) for buying energy?

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Pfft...I cant tell. Dang fund is up ~45% on a one year basis. I wouldnt buy any unless I saw 10-15%. But then I already own plenty.

 

[JPatrick]

What is an attractive dip (i.e., % of decline from current price) for buying energy?

Doubt if we'll see a big dip soon.  Couple of hurricanes/storms on the way means the market will be stirred up rightly or wrongly.. My energy funds/ETF's had huge gains today because of that.  If $60 holds here we may not see a dip soon.
I don't feel bad about adding a few hundred to my oil, but I would not feel good about dropping $25K on the Vanguard fund right now.