Every year I do a spreadsheet with the various plans, incorporating premium cost, deductible, and max out of pocket. I usually weed out the ones that my medical providers won't take unless there is significant enough savings in premiums to consider going out of network for care.
Then I start adding in incremental medical costs. Because Bronze plans are always cheapest to me, if I have little or no medical costs, the best bronze wins out. What's harder to factor in is that often Gold and Silver plans will have better co-pays, so I just keep that in mind. I won't qualify for Cost Saving Reductions since I can't get my MAGI below 250% FPL. If I could I'd try to figure out how to factor that in too.
At some point as medical costs increase, usually a Gold plan becomes best.
For HSA eligible plans, I factor in the benefit of the MAGI reduction with an HSA contribution. This is the reduction in state and federal income taxes and the increase in ACA subsidy. I do not try to factor in the future benefit of tax free growth inside the HSA as long as I'm able to eventually withdraw with qualified medical expenses, but I do keep that in mind.
Most years the best Bronze HSA eligible plan has a large advantage with low medical expenses, and Gold has a relatively small advantage, and I've always taken my chances on the bronze. That has worked out more years than not. When there was an ACA cliff, in some years the MAGI reduction from an HSA contribution kept me from going over the cliff so that Bronze plan was a clear winner all the way. So I have always used a Bronze HSA plan, but that doesn't mean you should.
You should really do your own calculations, but simplified, these would be my guidelines:
- Eliminate plans that don't include your medical providers unless there is a huge premium savings
- If you can qualify (under 250% FPL) for cost saving reductions (CSRs), you should probably pick a Silver plan for that. I say that with no personal experience but on the surface it looks better to me.
- If you're generally healthy and have no reason to expect high medical expenses, you should probably pick the lowest cost Bronze plan that is HSA eligible. I can't say for sure that you shouldn't pick the lowest premium one not HSA eligible, but the HSA benefit to me has always worked out better.
- If you tend to reach your deductible more years than not, pick a Gold plan with a low deductible. However, if you reach Max OOP, the Gold advantage is usually reduced. In my experience Gold plans have had slightly higher max OOP than others. That may not be universal.
If you have high prescription medicine costs, check the various plans to see if that changes your decision. Some have a % cost you bear after deductible, some has a fixed $ cost (I assume also after deductible but I'm not certain).