Steve O
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Dec 16, 2007
- Messages
- 291
Google Bilderberg group
....could NOT have said it better myself!Avocado and Harvest effing Gold. Put a lid on it Steve-O!
Down over 300 now. Dang, I'm outta the house for a few hours and the market goes to h-e-double-hockeysticks. Eddie's here with your meds Dawg.
I may be alone in this...but when the mkt made it to 9,000 I was pleased.
Yeah, that's usually a stupid thing to do caused by letting emotion get in the way. But having said that, if you "loaded up" in early 2009 you'd still have most of your gains off the highs in April and it wouldn't be too late to "take profits." Assuming you were a trader who invested that way.Me too, I always sell at the top and get in at the bottom, right!
How many bank failures will we have today
It's FDIC Friday
....could NOT have said it better myself!
Heh...I'm not worried about the stock mkt. DH is subbing in a band tonight and will make $133. Shoot...I don't have a flippin' care in the world.Now, time to get ready to go have some dinner at the club. Might chase it down with a nice cold.........well you know. The portfolio was down .89% today so I might chase it with two if I really want to celebrate, or cry depending on my mood. Hard to lose with my logic these days.
what she said.Avocado and Harvest effing Gold. Put a lid on it Steve-O!
Avocado and Harvest effing Gold. Put a lid on it Steve-O!
Having sold everything myself last September, I do not put a time frame on it, I am just 100% US treasuries, with long term puts from the overage I made in I thought the video Clifp put up from Australia was perfect for the current scenario. I do not know what direction the markets are going to take for certain, but I don't think the valuations are going to be positive for stocks with all the governments needing money. To this point all the investors have enjoyed the govenrments taking on debt to prop up the investments of the world but............
If the debt unravels unruly I fear it will be deflationary hell, killing PE's from the earnings side if instead the goverments succeed in what I believe they would rather do, inflate the problems away, interest rates should really jump and that will kill the PE's from the P side.
What is the time frame for my change? I am in a fortunate situation in that I am planning to retire in 4 years and I don't need to earn one dollar in investment returns to be able to retire, but I will need reasonable returns forward from that point. I just believe between now and then I am going to be able to take advantage of major valuation shifts.
Were I already retired and needing investment results or short of my goals and needing to be more aggressive to retire I don't know if I would have the patience to sit in 0 percent return assets. But I do feel right now is extremely high risk, which is the same I felt in September.
I think this is a fairly interesting post, but I'm not sure exactly what you mean. It looks like you saved up all your periods and used them all after one sentence.
But after parsing the post, it sounds like you are pretty much 100% in Treasuries. If so, I can see you making out if deflation hits. But don't you think you'll get hurt fairly badly if inflation goes way up, as you expect?
I'm not sure I understand how those that expect an extended bad economy are protecting themselves. Other than gold, of course. Isn't being in cash or treasuries a good investment in a deflationary world? But what about inflationary? Cash again, to invest in CDs when interest rates reach the double digits? Then of course, something in stocks in case you're wrong? Inflammatory posts are entertaining (sometimes), but real suggestions would be educational.
I'm inclined to agree with you, but don't forget that this sort of I-know-it's-coming doomsdaying was scoffed at three years ago, and not long after that came their smug "I told you so" sentiments...
Obviously this may end differently than the bearish sentiment in 2007 early into 2008, but there's no way to know. All I know is that the permabears will be back again to rub it in everyone else's noses if they are again correct.
Hey, runningman, how's that selling all your portfolio and watching the run-up working out for you?
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/is-this-rally-for-real-44144-8.html#post851507
Looks like you sold half your equities about 13% ago on the SP 500 (when it was at 941) and the rest of your equities August 31, about 4-5% below where the SP500 is now (even after the recent dramatic slide). I'd be very bearish too if I were you - hoping for the market to keep crashing so I could buy back in without having lost a lot of ground.
How many bank failures will we have today
It's FDIC Friday
I wish there was a more "mechanical" and emotion-free way to implement it, but the more I study the markets and look at what may lie ahead, the more I like the concept of "dynamic AA" based on market valuation. For example, if one could encapsulate a specific, emotion-free formula to overweight cheap stocks and underweight pricey stocks, I would think it a good thing. I suppose one could use something like PE10 but you might also need to consider what the current yields on cash and bonds might be. Such an approach might have told folks to underweight stocks in 2006 and 2007, and overweight them in late 2008 into 2009 -- perhaps with a fairly "neutral" weighting now. Of course, it might have also underweighted expensive stocks in 1996, and you'd have missed a fairly explosive last run of the secular bull market.Looks like you sold half your equities about 13% ago on the SP 500 (when it was at 941) and the rest of your equities August 31, about 4-5% below where the SP500 is now (even after the recent dramatic slide). I'd be very bearish too if I were you - hoping for the market to keep crashing so I could buy back in without having lost a lot of ground.
I wish there was a more "mechanical" and emotion-free way to implement it, but the more I study the markets and look at what may lie ahead, the more I like the concept of "dynamic AA" based on market valuation. For example, if one could encapsulate a specific, emotion-free formula to overweight cheap stocks and underweight pricey stocks, I would think it a good thing. I suppose one could use something like PE10 but you might also need to consider what the current yields on cash and bonds might be. Such an approach might have told folks to underweight stocks in 2006 and 2007, and overweight them in late 2008 into 2009 -- perhaps with a fairly "neutral" weighting now. Of course, it might have also underweighted expensive stocks in 1996, and you'd have missed a fairly explosive last run of the secular bull market.
I see no real way to implement such a mechanical strategy, though -- unlike the standard rebalancing of a fixed AA. But in principle, it sure sounds good.
James Montier at GMO agrees with you. He just wrote a paper on this, see here https://www.gmo.com/America/Research/default. He doesn't answer the question of how much to allocate where, but measures like Shiller PE can be of help. Regardless, I think it is critical to have a view on valuations in the asset classes you invest in.I wish there was a more "mechanical" and emotion-free way to implement it, but the more I study the markets and look at what may lie ahead, the more I like the concept of "dynamic AA" based on market valuation. For example, if one could encapsulate a specific, emotion-free formula to overweight cheap stocks and underweight pricey stocks, I would think it a good thing. I suppose one could use something like PE10 but you might also need to consider what the current yields on cash and bonds might be. Such an approach might have told folks to underweight stocks in 2006 and 2007, and overweight them in late 2008 into 2009 -- perhaps with a fairly "neutral" weighting now. Of course, it might have also underweighted expensive stocks in 1996, and you'd have missed a fairly explosive last run of the secular bull market.
I see no real way to implement such a mechanical strategy, though -- unlike the standard rebalancing of a fixed AA. But in principle, it sure sounds good.
I wish there was a more "mechanical" and emotion-free way to implement it, but the more I study the markets and look at what may lie ahead, the more I like the concept of "dynamic AA" based on market valuation. For example, if one could encapsulate a specific, emotion-free formula to overweight cheap stocks and underweight pricey stocks, I would think it a good thing. I suppose one could use something like PE10 but you might also need to consider what the current yields on cash and bonds might be. Such an approach might have told folks to underweight stocks in 2006 and 2007, and overweight them in late 2008 into 2009 -- perhaps with a fairly "neutral" weighting now. Of course, it might have also underweighted expensive stocks in 1996, and you'd have missed a fairly explosive last run of the secular bull market.
I see no real way to implement such a mechanical strategy, though -- unlike the standard rebalancing of a fixed AA. But in principle, it sure sounds good.